Mr Hammer wrote on Apr 29
th, 2019 at 5:54pm:
If China decided tomorrow that instead of forking out billions on our natural resources that it would just land it's massive army and take them, then without our US alliance we would be farked. People need to understand that. We are pretty much a defenceless nation and way outnumbered. Be anti- American all you like but that would change in a second if a Chinese soldier kicked your door down. Our high standard of living and comfort has blinded us to the true realities of what's going on in the world and our true place in it.
IYO, Hammer. That does not necessarily equate to reality. We have an alliance with the US. However, whereas we have made it the keystone of our defence and foreign policies, to the US we were merely just another block in their containment wall against the fUSSR. Our alliance was to placate us, against the possibility of a resurgent Imperial, militarist Japan. Whereas we believe it guaranteed that the US would come to our aid, in reality, clause III of the alliance only requires a conference if any of our or their forces (or NZ's) were threatened in the Pacific region.
As to whether or not, the US would honour what they have agreed to, is another matter. Howard, seizing on the opportunity that September 11 offered, convened a defence conference with the US in Washington, despite neither New York or Washington being on the Pacific coast of the US. Bush Junior was delighted to have Canberra sign up to his crusade against al Q'aeda (and later Saddam Hussein).
When we have asked for American aid when we have felt threatened by other nations - namely Indonesia - in 1960, 1965, 1975 and in 1999, the US has been reluctant to honor what we believe was it's commitment was. In 1960, it favoured Indonesia, because of the need for Polaris quipped submarines to transit Indonesia waters from Guam to the Indian Ocean to allow them to attack the fUSSR. In 1965, it was becoming concerned with affairs in Vietnam and decided that as the UK was involved under the Five Powers Defence Agreement it was not required to act against Indonesia. In 1975, it knew that Indonesia was no threat to Australia and believed Suharto's word that it was only going to invade East Timor. In 1999, affairs in Europe distracted it. So, on the four occasions we have felt the need for American support, in each case, Washington has decided otherwise.
Trump's attitude towards Beijing is reassuring to Canberra, even if Beijing is our biggest customer for our agriculture and mining. Trump appears unwilling to bow to China's ascendancy to become the most powerful economy in the world. China has no plans to attack Australia. Why should it, as long as Australia is willing to sell it what it wants? Why waste the manpower and the resources? It would require a considerable retraining of a large part of the PLA and considerable re-equipping of the PLAN and PLAAF.
Australia is a long, long, way from China. China is more concerned with events in it's immediate neighbourhood and always has been. Australia is a difficult nation to attack. Time and distance play a significant part in our defence. Our neighbours are the outer rim of our defences. As long as Indonesia remains hostile to China, the less like the Chinese are to gain bases closer to Australia from which they could mount an attack or an invasion. If they did, they would still need to cross the air-sea gap. A gap which we presently control and we would be able to attack their attacking force in and interdict their logistics in. They then are faced with the invidious choice of where to attack? The Top End or the SE Corner. The Top End is closer but is still remote from where the majority of the population lives and where most of our industries reside and where our politicians are. The SE Corner is where all those things are but you need to sail 'round the continent to reach it, thereby exposing your forces to greater attack and interdiction from naval and air forces.
The ADF has trained in Australia it's entire existence. It knows how to live here, the PLA does not. It knows how to use the resources here, the PLA does not. The PLA would require approximately three to four times the forces the ADF presently has at it's command to make an adequate bridgehead. That requires a lot of shipping and a large number of escort craft to ferry to where ever they are planning to attack. Once ashore, it and it's logistics would be again vulnerable to the ADF which would attack and interdict it's supply train. Like the Russians in the old joke, we can simply wait until the Chinese are tired out and lack the resources and then we could attack them.
We are not assured of a victory but we would have a good chance, even without direct US involvement. If the US did become involved, then the Chinese would have no chance at all.