Australian Politics Forum - climate skeptics derailing threads

lee

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #45 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 5:16pm

freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:59am:

Of course it's true. It's already happening. By Lee's logic he would stand on the train tracks as a train approaches demanding proof it will hit him if he doesn't move.

We know there is warming. We don't know how much because we don't have good data going back. We don't know how much is AGW or how much is natural.

The World Meteorological Organisation set a climate period as 30 yers because that is the only data they deemed good enough.

Let's look at the ice core data as per Skep Sci -

Now if CO2 is the control knob of warming then we should see spike for the Holocene Optimum when it was warmer. That is about 7k to 9k years ago. Nope. No spike similar to 20th century warming.

The Minoan Warm period about 3.5k years ago when it was about 4c warmer? Nope no great spike there.

The Roman Warm Period about 2k years ago? Not really.

The Mediaeval Warm Period about 1k years ago? Maybe. But before CO2 was a problem.

So does that look like CO2 controls temperature? Not to me it doesn't.

But I will let you draw your own conclusions.

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lee

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #46 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 5:19pm

Mattyfisk wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 11:14pm:

Dnarever wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 10:54pm:

lee wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 7:47pm:

Dnarever wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 2:55pm:

Nobody is saying we will all die.

"As newly anointed Democratic thought-leader Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., once reminded us, "like, the world is gonna end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/spend-93-trillion-on-the-green-new-deal-or-well-all-die-in-like-12-years[/url]

[url]Dnarever wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 2:55pm:

I would be making a list of the names of people with your view who are blocking action and if the science turns out to be true your descendants would be the ones at risk and going without.

Oh. Only IF it turns out to be true. That means there is some likelihood of it not being true. Who knew? Grin

What are the statistics for those scientists who believe in AGW to the 95% confidence level? Wink

Of course there is a chance that the dominant scientific view could be wrong, I would think that they are only at about 95% probability. If you want to risk the life of your descendants on that other 5% go ahead.

How could it be wrong? The world's heating up and CO2 is creating the heat. CO2 output and temperature rise correlate perfectly. And the CO2 comes from burning the fuel that creates that heat.

Our energy is making the world hotter. The only way to make it cooler is to stop doing things, or do them using the energy that's already there - sun, wind, sea.

Year 9 maths, innit.

Nope. First from your explanation you must tell us how CO2 creates heat.

And of cause correlation is not causation.

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freediver

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #47 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 6:17pm

lee wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 5:16pm:

freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:59am:

Of course it's true. It's already happening. By Lee's logic he would stand on the train tracks as a train approaches demanding proof it will hit him if he doesn't move.

We know there is warming. We don't know how much because we don't have good data going back. We don't know how much is AGW or how much is natural.

The World Meteorological Organisation set a climate period as 30 yers because that is the only data they deemed good enough.

Let's look at the ice core data as per Skep Sci -

https://skepticalscience.com/images/co2_10000_years.gif

Now if CO2 is the control knob of warming then we should see spike for the Holocene Optimum when it was warmer. That is about 7k to 9k years ago. Nope. No spike similar to 20th century warming.

The Minoan Warm period about 3.5k years ago when it was about 4c warmer? Nope no great spike there.

The Roman Warm Period about 2k years ago? Not really.

The Mediaeval Warm Period about 1k years ago? Maybe. But before CO2 was a problem.

So does that look like CO2 controls temperature? Not to me it doesn't.

But I will let you draw your own conclusions.

We do know that human CO2 emissions are causing warming. Copying and pasting some text written by a primary school student is no better than copying and pasting their excel plots.

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Dnarever

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #48 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:08pm

lee wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 5:19pm:

Mattyfisk wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 11:14pm:

Dnarever wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 10:54pm:

lee wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 7:47pm:

Dnarever wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 2:55pm:

Nobody is saying we will all die.

"As newly anointed Democratic thought-leader Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., once reminded us, "like, the world is gonna end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/spend-93-trillion-on-the-green-new-deal-or-well-all-die-in-like-12-years[/url]

[url]Dnarever wrote on Apr 6^th, 2019 at 2:55pm:

I would be making a list of the names of people with your view who are blocking action and if the science turns out to be true your descendants would be the ones at risk and going without.

Oh. Only IF it turns out to be true. That means there is some likelihood of it not being true. Who knew? Grin

What are the statistics for those scientists who believe in AGW to the 95% confidence level? Wink

Of course there is a chance that the dominant scientific view could be wrong, I would think that they are only at about 95% probability. If you want to risk the life of your descendants on that other 5% go ahead.

How could it be wrong? The world's heating up and CO2 is creating the heat. CO2 output and temperature rise correlate perfectly. And the CO2 comes from burning the fuel that creates that heat.

Our energy is making the world hotter. The only way to make it cooler is to stop doing things, or do them using the energy that's already there - sun, wind, sea.

Year 9 maths, innit.

Nope. First from your explanation you must tell us how CO2 creates heat.

And of cause correlation is not causation.

Atmospheric C02 causing heating is not in question, nobody with a IQ greater than that of a dead wombat disagrees with that.

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Dnarever

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #49 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:19pm

lee wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 5:16pm:

freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:59am:

Of course it's true. It's already happening. By Lee's logic he would stand on the train tracks as a train approaches demanding proof it will hit him if he doesn't move.

We know there is warming. We don't know how much because we don't have good data going back. We don't know how much is AGW or how much is natural.

The World Meteorological Organisation set a climate period as 30 yers because that is the only data they deemed good enough.

Let's look at the ice core data as per Skep Sci -

https://skepticalscience.com/images/co2_10000_years.gif

Now if CO2 is the control knob of warming then we should see spike for the Holocene Optimum when it was warmer. That is about 7k to 9k years ago. Nope. No spike similar to 20th century warming.

The Minoan Warm period about 3.5k years ago when it was about 4c warmer? Nope no great spike there.

The Roman Warm Period about 2k years ago? Not really.

The Mediaeval Warm Period about 1k years ago? Maybe. But before CO2 was a problem.

So does that look like CO2 controls temperature? Not to me it doesn't.

But I will let you draw your own conclusions.

Quote:

Now if CO2 is the control knob of warming then we should see spike for the Holocene Optimum when it was warmer.

Considering that this warm period is attributed to the earths tilt and orbit in this period why would you expect to see higher C02. Nobody has ever said that CO2 is the only possible driver for temperature increases.

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Mattyfisk Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 92264 Gender:	Re: carbon taxes are the best Reply #50 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:01pm freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 4:04pm: Carbon taxes are the best way to get there. Then we all agree, dear. But I'm curious. How do we tax the CO2 from agriculture and transport and aviation? They make more CO2 than manufacturing and electricity generation. That's a question.
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lee

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #51 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:05pm

Dnarever wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:08pm:

Atmospheric C02 causing heating is not in question, nobody with a IQ greater than that of a dead wombat disagrees with that.

Your claim was that CO2 CREATES heat.

Dnarever wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:19pm:

Nobody has ever said that CO2 is the only possible driver for temperature increases.

You do know the term "Control knob"?

"Carbon dioxide is the largest single contributor to human-induced climate change. NASA describes it as 'the principal control knob that governs the temperature of Earth'."

http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/About-climate-change-in-NSW/Caus...

But of course it is not the sole cause. But apparently it is the only single cause they can think of.

Then of course CO2 lags temperature.

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« Last Edit: Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:20pm by lee »

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lee

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #52 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:11pm

freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 6:17pm:

We do know that human CO2 emissions are causing warming.

It is possible that CO2 overcomes natural variation. It has not been proved. Most of any Warming caused by CO2 mostly happens within the first 100ppm.

freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 6:17pm:

Copying and pasting some text written by a primary school student is no better than copying and pasting their excel plots.

You have proof of this, or is it merely your assumption because you disagree? Wink

BTW - You still haven't posted a reference for you claim that the "vast majority of climate scientists who agree with AGW". Or is yours a fact free zone?

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lee

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #53 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:49pm

BTW - The latest paper by Cheng et al 2019 -

2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x

The thing to note is that is in zettajoules althought temperatures from Argo buoys are taken in ºC. So they have to first convert it to zettajoules. It takes about twenty-six hundred zettajoule to raise the temperature of the top two kilometres of the ocean by 1°C. 2,600 ZJ per degree.

They claim, if we look at the graph, that back in 1955 we knew the ocean heat content of the top two kilometres to +/- 95 joules or ± 0.04°C. Further by 2018 they claim accuracy to 9 joules or 0.003°C or 3 one thousandths of a degree. I doubt we know the temperature of the worlds oceans to within 1.0°C; but I could be wrong. Wink

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Dnarever

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #54 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:53pm

lee wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:05pm:

Dnarever wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:08pm:

Atmospheric C02 causing heating is not in question, nobody with a IQ greater than that of a dead wombat disagrees with that.

Your claim was that CO2 CREATES heat.

Dnarever wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 7:19pm:

Nobody has ever said that CO2 is the only possible driver for temperature increases.

You do know the term "Control knob"?

"Carbon dioxide is the largest single contributor to human-induced climate change. NASA describes it as 'the principal control knob that governs the temperature of Earth'."

http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/About-climate-change-in-NSW/Caus...

But of course it is not the sole cause. But apparently it is the only single cause they can think of.

Then of course CO2 lags temperature.

Quote:

But apparently it is the only single cause they can think of.

you seem to add and subtract bits to make it sound like what you are saying is sensible.

You changed this statement from what was originally said that it was the main human created cause known. That is not saying it is the only cause. In cases like the one you gave earlier where the Holocene Optimum was involved nobody claimed that it was Human induced or caused by an increase in Carbon Dioxide It is ludicrous to consider it relevant.

Yes carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is considered the major Human contribution to warming. This has never meant that if the worlds axis were to move or the orbit changed that there would not be global warming or cooling as a result, that argument is just stupid.

You are mixing and matching different issues with different causes and trying to say that it has some sort of relevance.

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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 47364 At my desk.	Re: carbon taxes are the best Reply #55 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 9:49pm Quote: It is possible that CO2 overcomes natural variation. It has not been proved. You cannot prove that a train about to run over you is going to run over you until it runs over you. That's why anyone with half a brain learns to live without absolute certainty from the age of about 3.
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lee

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #56 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 10:03pm

Dnarever wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:53pm:

You changed this statement from what was originally said that it was the main human created cause known.

Which statement is that. You seem confused.

Dnarever wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:53pm:

In cases like the one you gave earlier where the Holocene Optimum was involved nobody claimed that it was Human induced or caused by an increase in Carbon Dioxide It is ludicrous to consider it relevant.

The truth is no one can truly KNOW. It is a consensus position.

Dnarever wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:53pm:

Yes carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is considered the major Human contribution to warming.

perhaps you didn't get the memo. But please provide a link to the paper ha says CO2 is the major human contribution. To do that you would have to have 2 out of 3 parameters.

Total CO2 = Natural CO2 plus Human caused CO2. Given two we can work out the third. Now of course you could tell us in your estimation which two parameters we have. Or again provide a paper.

BTW - You do know that natural causes are the greatest causes of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere? Human emissions are somewhere about 3-4%.

"Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change"

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html

Dnarever wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 8:53pm:

You are mixing and matching different issues with different causes and trying to say that it has some sort of relevance.

You could always quote scientific papers instead of your assertions. Wink

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lee

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #57 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 10:07pm

freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 9:49pm:

You cannot prove that a train about to run over you is going to run over you until it runs over you. That's why anyone with half a brain learns to live without absolute certainty from the age of about 3.

If the train is moving in my direction and it is on the same track as me, and doesn't stop; I can certainly tell that I would be run over if I didn't move. You? And that is only three variables. Climate has far more variables than that, and they are not all known or their interactions one to another.

So you have nothing. Why am I not surprised. Not even the "vast majority of climate scientists who agree with AGW". Then of course we would have to somehow extrapolate those who agree with AGW but not that it is catastrophic. And if it isn't catastrophic why should we spend billions of dollars on it?

Just multiple assertions that I should accept as truth.

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« Last Edit: Apr 7^th, 2019 at 10:12pm by lee »

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freediver

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #58 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 10:18pm

Quote:

If the train is moving in my direction and it is on the same track as me, and doesn't stop; I can certainly tell that I would be run over if I didn't move. You? And that is only three variables. Climate has far more variables than that, and they are not all known or their interactions one to another.

So you have nothing.

I have a scientific consensus on the science of climate change, an economic consensus on the economics of climate change, and bipartisan support for action on climate change.

You have schoolboy plots from pleaselietome.com and a laughably childish approach to dealing the the uncertainty of living in the real world.

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lee

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Re: carbon taxes are the best
Reply #59 - Apr 7^th, 2019 at 10:34pm

freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 10:18pm:

I have a scientific consensus on the science of climate change, an economic consensus on the economics of climate change, and bipartisan support for action on climate change.

If it is consensus it isn't science. If it is science it isn't consensus. Science doesn't revolve around consensus.

According to scientific "consensus" the earth was once the centre of our universe. The Sun moved around us.

Economics is not science. Although economists like to insist it is.

freediver wrote on Apr 7^th, 2019 at 10:18pm:

You have schoolboy plots from pleaselietome.com and a laughably childish approach to dealing the the uncertainty of living in the real world.

And there you lost the argument because you haven't shown anything like that to be true. Simply because you don't like what has been posted. That level of debate is abysmal. Wink

Did you know the graph I provided from Cheng et al (Hausfather) is from a climate alarmist? Never mind.

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