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World is getting more Peaceful (Read 1023 times)
aquascoot
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World is getting more Peaceful
Mar 20th, 2019 at 6:22am
 
The world has become more peaceful and despite wars in Syria and Middle East fewer people are dying in armed conflicts, scientists say
Experts looked at 'all possible' wars, the countries involved and battle death tolls
One leading researcher said Korean War had appeared to be a 'breaking point'
Change since then is 'an indication the world has become a more peaceful place'
The research was carried out by Norway's Peace Research Institute Oslo

The wars after the Korean War (1950–1953) have killed a quarter as many people as the wars before the Korean War,' he said.

'The change after this breaking point is an indication that the world has become a more peaceful place,' adding Nygård, whose researchers work alongside statisticians at the University of Oslo.

Nygård said 'extensive use of statistics' was used by the institute, which aims to find out why war happens, how war develops and what steps can be taken to halt conflicts.

He added: 'The distribution of the number of people dying in war does not follow any normally distributed curve. There are many wars in the middle of the curve with a certain number of killed and few wars on the curve’s extremes, with few or many killed.
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Pedro Curevo
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #1 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 6:30am
 
The world remains a violent place.
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aquascoot
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #2 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 7:17am
 
but the trend is down.


The vast majority of human interactions are peaceful. 

Esteemed journalist and HumanProgress.org advisory board member Matt Ridley put it well when he said, “violence makes the news precisely because it is so rare; routine kindness does not make the news precisely because it is so common.” Harvard University’s Steven Pinker, who is also one of our board members, observed,


We never see a reporter saying to the camera, “Here we are, live from a country where a war has not broken out”—or a city that has not been bombed, or a school that has not been shot up. […] The only sound way to appraise the state of the world is to count.
And if we judge how violent the world is by counting, instead of by how gruesome the headlines are, we find something heartening. International wars have almost disappeared. Homicides are becoming rarer. In the United States, violence against women is decreasing, and so is child abuse.

Almost everywhere, we see a trend away from violence.
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #3 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 7:48am
 
Have you seen Pinker's causes for this phenomenon, Aquascoot?

His key is a rise in population.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/steven-pinker-this-is-historys-most-p...
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aquascoot
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #4 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 7:54am
 
i read that but it was a bit "double speak".

they are saying that deaths in war are decreasing (proportionally) but because population is rising , this is not the case ??

i suppose that might be the case.

i still think a lot of the percieved violence in the mainstream media is due to everyone carrying an iphone and being a war correspondant.

imagine the channel 9 news covering WW2 if every american, brit, german, russian and japanese had an i phone and internet access and 3 social media accounts !!!!
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #5 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 8:08am
 
aquascoot wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 7:54am:
i read that but it was a bit "double speak".

they are saying that deaths in war are decreasing (proportionally) but because population is rising , this is not the case ??

i suppose that might be the case.

i still think a lot of the percieved violence in the mainstream media is due to everyone carrying an iphone and being a war correspondant.

imagine the channel 9 news covering WW2 if every american, brit, german, russian and japanese had an i phone and internet access and 3 social media accounts !!!!


It's the process of news itself. News reports conflict. It's nearly always bad. It doesn't report long-term trends.

I don't know if people have more access to news, but news has become more competitive. This results in reports of more conflict, or more desperate and catastrophic conflict.

Check out the Economist if you want a more realistic view of the world.
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #6 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 8:09am
 
The main thing that has changed is the body count, and that is largely to do with tactics and weaponry. The massed infantry plan of battle led to huge numbers of casualties. As individual fire power increased, compact formation and huge numbers of troops were not as necessary to take or hold territory. That doesn't make the world more peaceful, it makes it more cautious.

Peace is not just the absence of war. Its like saying the world got more peaceful between 1918 and 1939.



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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #7 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 9:01am
 
issuevoter wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 8:09am:
The main thing that has changed is the body count, and that is largely to do with tactics and weaponry. The massed infantry plan of battle led to huge numbers of casualties. As individual fire power increased, compact formation and huge numbers of troops were not as necessary to take or hold territory. That doesn't make the world more peaceful, it makes it more cautious.

Peace is not just the absence of war. Its like saying the world got more peaceful between 1918 and 1939.






good points issue,

nuanced  Cheesy Cheesy
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aquascoot
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #8 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 9:03am
 
Mattyfisk wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 8:08am:
aquascoot wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 7:54am:
i read that but it was a bit "double speak".

they are saying that deaths in war are decreasing (proportionally) but because population is rising , this is not the case ??

i suppose that might be the case.

i still think a lot of the percieved violence in the mainstream media is due to everyone carrying an iphone and being a war correspondant.

imagine the channel 9 news covering WW2 if every american, brit, german, russian and japanese had an i phone and internet access and 3 social media accounts !!!!


It's the process of news itself. News reports conflict. It's nearly always bad. It doesn't report long-term trends.

I don't know if people have more access to news, but news has become more competitive. This results in reports of more conflict, or more desperate and catastrophic conflict.

Check out the Economist if you want a more realistic view of the world.



social media has led to exageration becoming the norm as the drive is just to get eyeballs.
if you arent on the extremes (sarah hansen young or fraser anning) you are dog meat in terms of getting attention.
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #9 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 9:16am
 
Yes - the alpha stallions of the global economy steeped in capitalism unbound are making an impact and the herd are slowly becoming acclimatised to being docile and useless ..... or they cop starvation and punishment from the under-alpha stallions that are in government along with the mares, all of whom will do their bidding for a nice bag of oats.... ...
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #10 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 9:21am
 
So now we grade peace by the numbers (not) being killed?  Wow - what about the 'halo effect' of the TYPE of unpeace being waged right now.. and across the Tasman?

Body Count, innit....

Downe at Ye Olde Saigon Friday Follies:-

"Gentlemen - we are going to step up our program of pacification of the countryside... in order to do so we are going to bring about peace by inserting seven more divisions of case-hardened troops, all under orders to bring back as many dead bodies as they can create!  The success or failure of this new positive initiative will be measured in enemy KIAs... and we will know that peace has been attained when that number begins to fall off!!"
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #11 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 11:30am
 
issuevoter wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 8:09am:
The main thing that has changed is the body count, and that is largely to do with tactics and weaponry. The massed infantry plan of battle led to huge numbers of casualties. As individual fire power increased, compact formation and huge numbers of troops were not as necessary to take or hold territory. That doesn't make the world more peaceful, it makes it more cautious.

Peace is not just the absence of war. Its like saying the world got more peaceful between 1918 and 1939.




issuevoter wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 8:09am:
The main thing that has changed is the body count, and that is largely to do with tactics and weaponry. The massed infantry plan of battle led to huge numbers of casualties. As individual fire power increased, compact formation and huge numbers of troops were not as necessary to take or hold territory. That doesn't make the world more peaceful, it makes it more cautious.


Indeed. I believe that's what Pinker's saying. He also puts the decrease in war down to population growth - an interesting idea. I'll have to read up on it.

We've also seen a big decrease in violent crime over the past 30 years. Criminologists describe this as the Great Crime Drop. No one knows the cause of this, but some see it as the introduction of lead-free petrol.

Imagine, something as minor as that creating such a seismic social shift. It's not crap either - the behavioural effects of lead have been tested, lead levels in the atmosphere have been monitored. The correlation between the phase-out of lead and the crime drop is striking.

You won't read about that in the news.
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #12 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 12:04pm
 
Seems more to me that it's like that rape suspect figure - 90% go unreported so there must be more out there....



Downe at Ye Olde Feministe Assertion on Incident Data at Ye Olde Round Table Discussion:-

"How did you arrive at 90% unreported?"

"We double checked non-reports and found a clear discrepancy between reported incidents and unreported incidents - the latter having been excluded from figures entirely!  Someone in authority did not include unreported incidents in their report.... a clear conspiracy!!."

"Shocking oversight... that's exactly like the refusal to consider wage gaps in any other context than actual pay rates per hour.... think of the poor women!  we'll need another femiinst staffed body to oversee this - at huge salaries and perks!!"
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #13 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 12:04pm
 
aquascoot wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 9:03am:
Mattyfisk wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 8:08am:
aquascoot wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 7:54am:
i read that but it was a bit "double speak".

they are saying that deaths in war are decreasing (proportionally) but because population is rising , this is not the case ??

i suppose that might be the case.

i still think a lot of the percieved violence in the mainstream media is due to everyone carrying an iphone and being a war correspondant.

imagine the channel 9 news covering WW2 if every american, brit, german, russian and japanese had an i phone and internet access and 3 social media accounts !!!!


It's the process of news itself. News reports conflict. It's nearly always bad. It doesn't report long-term trends.

I don't know if people have more access to news, but news has become more competitive. This results in reports of more conflict, or more desperate and catastrophic conflict.

Check out the Economist if you want a more realistic view of the world.



social media has led to exageration becoming the norm as the drive is just to get eyeballs.
if you arent on the extremes (sarah hansen young or fraser anning) you are dog meat in terms of getting attention.


Very true, but what I've noticed in news stories is the increased tendency to repackage other media reports.

You know, TRUMP CALLS CNN JOURNALIST A LIAR. BREAKING: HILLARY SLIPS UP IN NO HOLDS BARRED INTERVIEW. BANNON BAGS OUT BREXIT ON HANNITY. FOX NEWS COMMENTATOR SLAMS PLANS FOR BORDER WALL.

With a few exceptions (such as Politico, Breitbart, the Daily Beast), the news still comes from mainstream media sources. It is then put through a spin cycle. There's also the reporting on politicians' social media. The mainstream media never misses a Trump Tweet. A lot of stories are comments on other publications' reports on these.

And then, of course, there's fake news and propaganda. The far-right have successfully capitalised on this because they have an unquestioning audience. They also have financial backers with deep pockets, such as the Mercers and Breitbart.

The aim of Breitbart is unapologetically to get those with far-right views into power. This differs to publications like the Washington Post (now owned by Jeff Bezos), which reports, fact-checks and commentates on politicians of ALL stripes. Breitbart will never, for example, publish a story critical of Trump. It's aim, if anything, is to bring down Trump's enemies.

Fox News, a mainstream media source, has exactly the same aim and tactics. Fox switched from backing conventional Republicans to the far-right outsider, Trump.

It was touch and go there for a bit. Fox editorial flirted with Hillary. But, in the end, it went with its audience - a financial decision as much as an ideological one.


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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #14 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:15pm
 
From Karnal's article:

Quote:
Still, there are many ways to look at the data—and quantifying the definition of a violent society. A study in Current Anthropology published online October 13 acknowledges the percentage of a population suffering violent war-related deaths—fatalities due to intentional conflict between differing communities—does decrease as a population grows. At the same time, though, the absolute numbers increase more than would be expected from just population growth.


Can anyone make sense of that?
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #15 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:19pm
 
The World might be more peaceful but it's still a ticking time bomb
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #16 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:35pm
 
freediver wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:15pm:
From Karnal's article:

Quote:
Still, there are many ways to look at the data—and quantifying the definition of a violent society. A study in Current Anthropology published online October 13 acknowledges the percentage of a population suffering violent war-related deaths—fatalities due to intentional conflict between differing communities—does decrease as a population grows. At the same time, though, the absolute numbers increase more than would be expected from just population growth.


Can anyone make sense of that?


Yes. It's quite simple.

Fatalities ... although higher in total number, are diluted as a percentage by an overall increase in population.

Furthermore, the number of total fatalities appear to have risen above the factored in population rise.

In short, more people are dying than can be attributed to only a rise in the population. There are more people so a smaller percentage of dead ... yet so great is the population expansion, it outreaches mere exponential growth.
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« Last Edit: Mar 20th, 2019 at 2:41pm by mothra »  

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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #17 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:36pm
 
What of course it doesn't mention is the rates of wounded, maimed and displaced.

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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #18 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 2:33pm
 
mothra wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:35pm:
freediver wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:15pm:
From Karnal's article:

Quote:
Still, there are many ways to look at the data—and quantifying the definition of a violent society. A study in Current Anthropology published online October 13 acknowledges the percentage of a population suffering violent war-related deaths—fatalities due to intentional conflict between differing communities—does decrease as a population grows. At the same time, though, the absolute numbers increase more than would be expected from just population growth.


Can anyone make sense of that?


Yes. It's quite simple.

Fatalities . although higher in total number, are diluted as a percentage by an overall increase in population.

Furthermore, the number of total fatalities appear to have risen above a the factored in population rise.

In short, more people are dying than can be attributed to only a rise in the population. There are more people so a smaller percentage of dead ... yet so great is the population expansion, it outreaches mere exponential growth.


Random full stop and superfluous “a”.  Grin
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #19 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 2:40pm
 
Secret Wars wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 2:33pm:
mothra wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:35pm:
freediver wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:15pm:
From Karnal's article:

Quote:
Still, there are many ways to look at the data—and quantifying the definition of a violent society. A study in Current Anthropology published online October 13 acknowledges the percentage of a population suffering violent war-related deaths—fatalities due to intentional conflict between differing communities—does decrease as a population grows. At the same time, though, the absolute numbers increase more than would be expected from just population growth.


Can anyone make sense of that?


Yes. It's quite simple.

Fatalities . although higher in total number, are diluted as a percentage by an overall increase in population.

Furthermore, the number of total fatalities appear to have risen above a the factored in population rise.

In short, more people are dying than can be attributed to only a rise in the population. There are more people so a smaller percentage of dead ... yet so great is the population expansion, it outreaches mere exponential growth.


Random full stop and superfluous “a”.  Grin



Actually, it wasn't a random full stop ... it was a failed ellipses.

I have a sticky full stop key.

But again, thank you for drawing it to my attention. Fixed.
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Reply #20 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 2:52pm
 
The Stable Genius Aquascoot has cracked it.

Each death brings global peace closer.

...
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« Last Edit: Mar 20th, 2019 at 3:22pm by Laugh till you cry »  

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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #21 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 5:28pm
 
freediver wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 1:15pm:
From Karnal's article:

Quote:
Still, there are many ways to look at the data—and quantifying the definition of a violent society. A study in Current Anthropology published online October 13 acknowledges the percentage of a population suffering violent war-related deaths—fatalities due to intentional conflict between differing communities—does decrease as a population grows. At the same time, though, the absolute numbers increase more than would be expected from just population growth.


Can anyone make sense of that?


'as populations grow, the number of deaths per unit (100,100 etc) declines due to population rise - but the number of actual deaths rises far beyond what would be expected' ...

Sounds peaceful to me..... and makes as much sense as the overpaid sheilas justifying the 'wage gap' data to a senate inquiry.

"Is there any reference to a calculation of HOURLY rates of pay per indvidual?"

(silence... shuffling of papers)....

"Ahh.. the.. uh.. the annualised figures...."

"How do you determine an 'annualised' figure?  How does that relate to rate of hourly pay?""
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #22 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 6:21pm
 
While Islam exists

There will be violence and barbarity

Just ask the turkey president.
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I HAVE A DREAM
A WONDERFUL, PEACEFUL, BEAUTIFUL DREAM.
A DREAM OF A WORLD THAT HAS NEVER KNOWN ISLAM
A DREAM OF A WORLD FREE FROM THE HORRORS OF ISLAM.

SUCH A WONDERFUL DREAM
O HOW I WISH IT WERE TRU
 
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Re: World is getting more Peaceful
Reply #23 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 6:24pm
 
Valkie wrote on Mar 20th, 2019 at 6:21pm:
While Islam exists

There will be violence and barbarity

Just ask the turkey president.



Old Bucket of Petrol Erdogan... what a Modern Muslim man!!  What a peacemaker!

Religion of peace, innit?

and when it comes to the internet - there will be wars and roomers full of wars.....   Cool
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