Australian Politics Forum - Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?

TheFunPolice Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9009 waggawagga Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #15 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:58pm copper internet-----------------------> lol
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polite_gandalf

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #16 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 2:21pm

minarchist wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:54pm:

I recall during the 2000's that Tony Abbott was more confident in the way he spoke and responded to questions. When he became opposition leader, that seemed to change and he was increasingly becoming more nervous. When he became PM, he stammered more when he spoke and was nowhere near as quick in answering questions. I don't know why his confidence diminished the way it did, perhaps becoming opposition leader and eventually PM increased his anxiety. If the pressure hadn't got to him, he still may be PM today.

Joe Hockey always came across as a bumbling fool when he spoke, I don't understand why he was ever chosen as treasurer. He explained economic topics as if he'd read half of "Economics in One Lesson" and said to himself "Yep, I've got the gist of this".

Apparently Credlin had him on a tight leash during the 2013 campaign, but then right on the 11th hour before the election Abbott blurted out that infamous shopping list of off-the-cuff promises, including "no cuts to the ABC or SBS" in an SBS interview. That was a real WTF moment at campaign headquarters because it was totally unscripted and totally out of the blue. No doubt Abbott lived to regret that ill-thought out promise, and so its understandable that he was anxious to remain on-script thereafter.

While I guess Abbott was an extreme case, this is the travails of the modern-day PM. The worst case was that excruciating 30 second silence to Mark Riley's question about 'poo happens'. You could just see him thinking "there literally is nothing I can say that won't make this situation worse for me". But its not only Abbott. I used to lament at how wooden and uninspiring Gillard sounded - given that I knew she was capable of so much more. I suspect Abbott is a far better speaker than he allowed himself to be while he was PM.

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matty

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #17 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 6:49pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:41pm:

matty wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:16pm:

Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it. Anyway, it will come to nothing. James Mathison tried last election and Tony received 61% of the primary vote alone.

And it’s pathetic how they try to equate the burqa with speedos. The burqa (and niqab) ARE very confronting. Seeing someone with no eyes or a slit with eyes poking out is scary and a security concern. What on earth is confronting about speedos??

Incorrect Matty, he got 51.6% of the primary vote, a swing of -9.2%. The 61% was the final 2PP vote.

This election it will almost certainly go down to preferences.

Indeed, gandalf. Apologies.

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matty

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #18 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 6:56pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:55pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah.

Any Liberal representative.

They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do.

Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

No it’s not exactly next door. It’s not on the other side of Sydney but it’s a few electorates away. It takes in the lower north shore and around Mosman, Cremorne etc... as well as the Northern beaches like Dee Why, Narrabeen, Collaroy etc..., and more North-Eastern suburbs like Manly and Clontarf. Wentworth is pretty much the Eastern suburbs; nothing outside is in it (except one part of Darlinghurst which is technically inner-West) and nothing inside inside is not in it, if that makes sense.

It is socially progressive for the most part, but not that multicultural.

Very diverse electorate. Bogans and renters who try to make out that they have more than they actually do in areas like Dee Why and Harbord, then rich snobs in Mosman and Cremorne. Middle-of-the-road kind of people around Manly and Queenscliff.

I doubt that Abbott is in much trouble. Wentworth is inherently more hipster/yuppy.

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TheFunPolice Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9009 waggawagga Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #19 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 6:58pm I would also doubt abbott is in trouble and I'm 3000km away! lol
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Dnarever

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #20 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 7:08pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:55pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah.

Any Liberal representative.

They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do.

Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

Wentworth and Warringah are very different although they have both been conservative strongholds almost forever.

The harbour gap makes a huge mental difference between the two.

I would like for Abbott to be in trouble but his only real justified fear would be from his own party.

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Bam

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #21 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 9:47pm

matty wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 6:56pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:55pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah.

Any Liberal representative.

They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do.

Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

No it’s not exactly next door. It’s not on the other side of Sydney but it’s a few electorates away. It takes in the lower north shore and around Mosman, Cremorne etc... as well as the Northern beaches like Dee Why, Narrabeen, Collaroy etc..., and more North-Eastern suburbs like Manly and Clontarf. Wentworth is pretty much the Eastern suburbs; nothing outside is in it (except one part of Darlinghurst which is technically inner-West) and nothing inside inside is not in it, if that makes sense.

It is socially progressive for the most part, but not that multicultural.

Very diverse electorate. Bogans and renters who try to make out that they have more than they actually do in areas like Dee Why and Harbord, then rich snobs in Mosman and Cremorne. Middle-of-the-road kind of people around Manly and Queenscliff.

I doubt that Abbott is in much trouble. Wentworth is inherently more hipster/yuppy.

I don't know where you get the "few electorates away" from. Geographically, Wentworth and Warringah are adjacent electorates. The electorates are about 1.5 kilometres apart, only separated by the mouth of Sydney Harbour.

You are correct to point out that the electorates are different, but that doesn't make Abbott safe. Far from it. Wentworth had a 17% margin and had always been held by the Liberal party and its predecessors since it was created. It fell in a by-election with a 19% swing. Warringah has an 11% margin.

Your assessment that Abbott is not in much trouble is wishful thinking. He may still hold the seat at the election but it's not a sure thing. If he takes the seat for granted like Mirabella did in Indi in 2013 he's going to get booted.

You've got to see how underperforming self-entitled Liberals and Nationals have been rolled in once-safe seats by independents and minor parties in the last five or six years, both state and Federal. If you don't believe me, I'll post the body count. The Victorian state election is in nine days. Could more independents be on the way to the Victorian Parliament?

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Bam

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #22 - Nov 15^th, 2018 at 9:51pm

Dnarever wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 7:08pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:55pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah.

Any Liberal representative.

They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do.

Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

Wentworth and Warringah are very different although they have both been conservative strongholds almost forever.

The harbour gap makes a huge mental difference between the two.

I would like for Abbott to be in trouble but his only real justified fear would be from his own party.

It all depends on how credible that Warringah poll is. His 2PP margin shrinking to 54-46 is quite plausible. It represents about a 7.5% swing. A further swing by enough to force him out over the next six months is not impossible.

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #23 - Nov 16^th, 2018 at 9:07am

Anyway, it will mostly hinge on them coming up with a credible independent candidate. Frankly, I doubt that Jane Caro can really cut it there. They need to be economically centre right, and I'm pretty sure she isn't.

Rest assured though, Abbott won't be caught napping. He's already had one massive fundraiser, and say what you will about him, he is nothing if not a political fighter. Sophie Mirabella he most certainly isn't.

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A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
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Outlawing the enemy's uniform - hijab, islamic beard - is not depriving one's own people of their freedoms.

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juliar Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 22966	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #24 - Nov 16^th, 2018 at 10:26am My Gosh the Lefties are grabbing at moonbeams now.
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Bam

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #25 - Nov 16^th, 2018 at 11:22am

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 16^th, 2018 at 9:07am:

Anyway, it will mostly hinge on them coming up with a credible independent candidate. Frankly, I doubt that Jane Caro can really cut it there. They need to be economically centre right, and I'm pretty sure she isn't.

Rest assured though, Abbott won't be caught napping. He's already had one massive fundraiser, and say what you will about him, he is nothing if not a political fighter. Sophie Mirabella he most certainly isn't.

Yes, the question mark at this stage is who would be the candidates? We're assuming that an independent would be the candidate that gets elected, but it's not impossible for Labor or the Greens to take the seat. Abbott would have few friends among the other candidates, who would place him low on their preferences, and whoever finishes second would be well placed.

Warringah will be a seat to watch on election night. At this stage I'm expecting Abbott to hold it, but only after an uncomfortable evening. He'll be watching a lot of his colleagues losing their seats and his seat would be decided on preferences for the first time since 1943.

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Grappler Truth Teller Feller

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #26 - Nov 16^th, 2018 at 9:52pm

We can but live in perpetual hope......... if Warringah sacks him he'll have to live off his pension for life ... poor bustard.... what a disgraceful situation for a nation to be frog-marched into - supporting those it sacked for incompetence and even evil for life.....that's what happens when you are both the players, the referee, and the rule makers....

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Grappler Truth Teller Feller Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 80190 Proud pre-1850's NO Voter Gender:	Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah? Reply #27 - Nov 16^th, 2018 at 9:53pm April_Flowers wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:43pm: The_Barnacle wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:42pm: If the Liberal Party had any brains they would choose someone else to contest the seat Such as? Heinrich Himmler? Jozef Stalin? Pol Pot? Lassie?
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matty

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #28 - Nov 16^th, 2018 at 11:48pm

Bam wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 9:47pm:

matty wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 6:56pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:55pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah.

Any Liberal representative.

They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do.

Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

No it’s not exactly next door. It’s not on the other side of Sydney but it’s a few electorates away. It takes in the lower north shore and around Mosman, Cremorne etc... as well as the Northern beaches like Dee Why, Narrabeen, Collaroy etc..., and more North-Eastern suburbs like Manly and Clontarf. Wentworth is pretty much the Eastern suburbs; nothing outside is in it (except one part of Darlinghurst which is technically inner-West) and nothing inside inside is not in it, if that makes sense.

It is socially progressive for the most part, but not that multicultural.

Very diverse electorate. Bogans and renters who try to make out that they have more than they actually do in areas like Dee Why and Harbord, then rich snobs in Mosman and Cremorne. Middle-of-the-road kind of people around Manly and Queenscliff.

I doubt that Abbott is in much trouble. Wentworth is inherently more hipster/yuppy.

I don't know where you get the "few electorates away" from. Geographically, Wentworth and Warringah are adjacent electorates. The electorates are about 1.5 kilometres apart, only separated by the mouth of Sydney Harbour.

You are correct to point out that the electorates are different, but that doesn't make Abbott safe. Far from it. Wentworth had a 17% margin and had always been held by the Liberal party and its predecessors since it was created. It fell in a by-election with a 19% swing. Warringah has an 11% margin.

Your assessment that Abbott is not in much trouble is wishful thinking. He may still hold the seat at the election but it's not a sure thing. If he takes the seat for granted like Mirabella did in Indi in 2013 he's going to get booted.

You've got to see how underperforming self-entitled Liberals and Nationals have been rolled in once-safe seats by independents and minor parties in the last five or six years, both state and Federal. If you don't believe me, I'll post the body count. The Victorian state election is in nine days. Could more independents be on the way to the Victorian Parliament?

No they're not actually adjacent. They are relatively close but North Sydney and Sydney are both in between them. I drove from Watsons Bay to Queenscliff the other day and it took over 45 minutes.

Yes, in terms of the demographics, there are those around there who could be inclined to vote for a socially progressive leaning independent, but only in areas like Dee Why, Harbord, Manly etc... In the nicer parts of the electorate, like Neutral Bay, Mosman, Cremorne, and then Abbott's area (i.e, where he lives) like Frenchs Forest, Ingleisde, Terrey Hills etc..., I just don't see it. Do you actually know the electorate well?

And as for taking the seat for granted? Please... He is involved in many local community associations and events. To name just one, he has been a surf lifesaver for years.

And are you seriously saying that no Labor politician takes their seat for granted?

And here is the link to show how the two electorates are not exactly adjacent.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-expensive-nsw-electorates-bucking-the-voting-...

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matty

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Re: Is Abbott in trouble in Warringah?
Reply #29 - Nov 16^th, 2018 at 11:51pm

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 16^th, 2018 at 9:07am:

Anyway, it will mostly hinge on them coming up with a credible independent candidate. Frankly, I doubt that Jane Caro can really cut it there. They need to be economically centre right, and I'm pretty sure she isn't.

Rest assured though, Abbott won't be caught napping. He's already had one massive fundraiser, and say what you will about him, he is nothing if not a political fighter. Sophie Mirabella he most certainly isn't.

She is far from it; she is of the far left. She actually makes Kerry's Phelps look centre-right, which is no mean feat.

Abbott has been a good local member for years. I a man not just saying that out of the fact that I like him, the facts speak for themselves.

Sophie, in fairness, as much as I like her, did probably take Indi a little too for granted and was more involved in the Canberra sphere. But can anyone name just one accomplishment of Cathy McGowan since she has been there?

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