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2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies (Read 7853 times)
Captain Nemo
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #30 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 10:29am
 
A person on a six figure income would be paying tax.

Anyone who earns over $21,000 will pay income tax.
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The 2025 election could be a shocker.
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minarchist
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Coalition
Reply #31 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 1:58pm
 
Bam wrote on Nov 6th, 2018 at 8:39am:
This is political ineptness at it very worst.

A half Senate election would be a repeat of the Wentworth by-election in Senate and a decimation of Coalition numbers. Half-Senate elections have traditionally been seen as giant by-elections. Having a half-Senate election when the government is coming off a 19 percent swing in a by-election would be insane. It would see the Coalition lose up to six Senators, Labor could gain as many, and it would hand Labor the whip hand. It would give Labor the moral right to block most legislation in the Senate because the government no longer has any mandate. Labor would be looking very good for control of the Senate in 2022, needing only the support of the Greens to pass legislation.

This is a very dangerous option for a minority government because the six crossbenchers would be likely to support a no confidence motion. Some government MPs on small margins would get referred off to the High Court. Dutton in particular is very vulnerable. Once one goes, more would follow in quick succession. A High Court challenge may not be heard in time for any by-elections to be held before May, but if the government decides to be reckless in this way, by-elections for up to six government MPs become live options. Except by-elections wouldn't be held; the government would lose control on the House in a vote of no confidence and off to a general election we would go.

If Morrison has any brains at all, he would know his government is doomed and call a half Senate and House election when due. It won't be pleasant, but it would save the furniture because the polls would be around 47-53. Self destructing and then having an election forced by a vote of no confidence when the polls are 44-56 or worse would be far more devastating.


One of the few occasions that I agree with Bam. Going around the country in a checked shirt and jeans, shoving strawberries and meat pies down your throat and giving the done-to-death-two-thumbs-up photo shoot to make yourself look more blokey and in touch with voters isn't going to win anyone the next federal election either.

I've been waiting for Juliar to start one of these "clutching at straws that the Libs will win the next federal election" threads for sometime and it looks like this is the start of many.
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People accuse Capitalism of being a "dog eat dog" system, yet it was the Communists who ate each other when they were starving!
 
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juliar
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #32 - Nov 7th, 2018 at 4:26pm
 
MiniMind starts another Lefty fantasy to try to build up their sinking spirits.

The 2 elections could very well occur if it seems the way to go to thoroughly discredit Labor. Which is not very difficult.

No doubt Mark Latham will be advising ScoMo.
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Bam
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Coalition
Reply #33 - Nov 8th, 2018 at 6:46pm
 
minarchist wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 1:58pm:
Bam wrote on Nov 6th, 2018 at 8:39am:
This is political ineptness at it very worst.

A half Senate election would be a repeat of the Wentworth by-election in Senate and a decimation of Coalition numbers. Half-Senate elections have traditionally been seen as giant by-elections. Having a half-Senate election when the government is coming off a 19 percent swing in a by-election would be insane. It would see the Coalition lose up to six Senators, Labor could gain as many, and it would hand Labor the whip hand. It would give Labor the moral right to block most legislation in the Senate because the government no longer has any mandate. Labor would be looking very good for control of the Senate in 2022, needing only the support of the Greens to pass legislation.

This is a very dangerous option for a minority government because the six crossbenchers would be likely to support a no confidence motion. Some government MPs on small margins would get referred off to the High Court. Dutton in particular is very vulnerable. Once one goes, more would follow in quick succession. A High Court challenge may not be heard in time for any by-elections to be held before May, but if the government decides to be reckless in this way, by-elections for up to six government MPs become live options. Except by-elections wouldn't be held; the government would lose control on the House in a vote of no confidence and off to a general election we would go.

If Morrison has any brains at all, he would know his government is doomed and call a half Senate and House election when due. It won't be pleasant, but it would save the furniture because the polls would be around 47-53. Self destructing and then having an election forced by a vote of no confidence when the polls are 44-56 or worse would be far more devastating.


One of the few occasions that I agree with Bam. Going around the country in a checked shirt and jeans, shoving strawberries and meat pies down your throat and giving the done-to-death-two-thumbs-up photo shoot to make yourself look more blokey and in touch with voters isn't going to win anyone the next federal election either.

I've been waiting for Juliar to start one of these "clutching at straws that the Libs will win the next federal election" threads for sometime and it looks like this is the start of many.

Morrison has a marketing background and it shows. What he doesn't realise is that the voters have seen this kind of falsehoods before and didn't buy it.

The voters didn't buy Rudd's "fair shake of the sauce bottle" persona. Nor did they buy the "real Julia". They're not going to be swayed by this fake Morrison either.
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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
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minarchist
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #34 - Nov 12th, 2018 at 1:48pm
 
juliar wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 4:26pm:
MiniMind starts another Lefty fantasy to try to build up their sinking spirits.

The 2 elections could very well occur if it seems the way to go to thoroughly discredit Labor. Which is not very difficult.

No doubt Mark Latham will be advising ScoMo.


Call me whatever names you want Juliar, all the polls at present indicate that the Liberals are behind Labor by significant margins. Based on these numbers, it's logical to assume the Liberals will lose a significant number of seats at the next election, unless they enact policies that gain overwhelming support. It's naive to think that Morrison's tour of the country by itself can turn around the fortunes of the Liberals, it's delusional to think that this tour plus the proposed split house election will result in a slaughter of Labor and the Greens.
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People accuse Capitalism of being a "dog eat dog" system, yet it was the Communists who ate each other when they were starving!
 
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Its time
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #35 - Nov 13th, 2018 at 9:05am
 
...
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juliar
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #36 - Nov 14th, 2018 at 10:40am
 
The Polly Waffle VIRUS strikes again with more Fake News - his speciality as that is all his weak mind can muster.
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Bam
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Coalition
Reply #37 - Nov 14th, 2018 at 3:40pm
 
minarchist wrote on Nov 12th, 2018 at 1:48pm:
juliar wrote on Nov 7th, 2018 at 4:26pm:
MiniMind starts another Lefty fantasy to try to build up their sinking spirits.

The 2 elections could very well occur if it seems the way to go to thoroughly discredit Labor. Which is not very difficult.

No doubt Mark Latham will be advising ScoMo.


Call me whatever names you want Juliar, all the polls at present indicate that the Liberals are behind Labor by significant margins. Based on these numbers, it's logical to assume the Liberals will lose a significant number of seats at the next election, unless they enact policies that gain overwhelming support. It's naive to think that Morrison's tour of the country by itself can turn around the fortunes of the Liberals, it's delusional to think that this tour plus the proposed split house election will result in a slaughter of Labor and the Greens.

It's too late for that. The Coalition are moribund on policy. No sudden policy epiphany will save them because it will not be believed. The electorate have made up their minds and are patiently waiting for the opportunity to give the Coalition a belting at the ballot box.
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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
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juliar
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #38 - Nov 16th, 2018 at 10:37am
 
Poor little Bammy reaches for the stars as Labor crumbles.

Wonder if they will use the 2 election trick?  Probably no need as the next 6 months will see such a swing against the evil union controlled Labor Socialists who want to reduce Australia to ashes just like they did before.


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Fit of Absent Mindeness
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #39 - Nov 17th, 2018 at 1:03pm
 
Double the cost - and double the thumping for the LNP.

How happy will people be voting twice - i dare them to try this!
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Putting the n in cuts
 
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stunspore
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #40 - Nov 17th, 2018 at 5:16pm
 
Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Nov 17th, 2018 at 1:03pm:
Double the cost - and double the thumping for the LNP.

How happy will people be voting twice - i dare them to try this!


It was yet another opportunity for the public to condemn both the state lib opposition and fed libs when they attend someone's funeral for political gain.

For Fed libs to win, they have to first deal with the conservative/reactionaries/right wing and the moderates.  As for the state libs, they have to stop associating with mobsters, simplistic slogans and racist remarks.  Even then, they will have to wait for state lab to stumble and implode just like fed coalition.
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juliar
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #41 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 11:32am
 
Then when did the wasteful Labor ever worry about wasting taxpayers' money ?

Just look at how much Labor's illegal invaders have cost the Australian taxpayers.

And what about one of Labor's illegal invaders going berserk down in Melbourne just the other day?
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stunspore
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #42 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 5:26pm
 
stunspore wrote on Nov 17th, 2018 at 5:16pm:
Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Nov 17th, 2018 at 1:03pm:
Double the cost - and double the thumping for the LNP.

How happy will people be voting twice - i dare them to try this!


It was yet another opportunity for the public to condemn both the state lib opposition and fed libs when they attend someone's funeral for political gain.

For Fed libs to win, they have to first deal with the conservative/reactionaries/right wing and the moderates.  As for the state libs, they have to stop associating with mobsters, simplistic slogans and racist remarks.  Even then, they will have to wait for state lab to stumble and implode just like fed coalition.


I didn't think it couldn't be any worse, but Matthew Guy hits a new low with a media grab with a convicted drug trafficker.
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stunspore
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Labor+Greenies
Reply #43 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 5:53pm
 
In one seat, lib candidate has 2nd preference a candidate who believes in "gay conversion" and "trangender is an invention of satan".
Though not really a surprise, given Morrison said that he is ok with gay conversion.
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Bam
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Re: 2 elections in 2019 to slaughter Coalition
Reply #44 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 6:29pm
 
Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Nov 17th, 2018 at 1:03pm:
Double the cost - and double the thumping for the LNP.

How happy will people be voting twice - i dare them to try this!

Here's what would happen if they were to try it: a replication of Wentworth's 19% swing in every Senate contest in the country. It would be seen as an opportunity to make an almighty protest vote.

Here's what could happen to the Coalition if they were to have a 19% swing (refactored as the Coalition losing 1/3 of their primary vote as happened in Wentworth):
NSW: Coalition 24% (1.68 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
Vic: Coalition 22% (1.54 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
Qld: Coalition 23.5% (1.65 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
WA: Coalition 26% (1.82 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
SA: Coalition 22% (1.54 quotas) - 3 Senators up for re-election
Tas: Coalition 22% (1.54 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election

The Coalition have two Senators up for re-election in every state (three in SA). If they were to try the Senate-only election, it would be a very risky strategy where they have nothing to gain and they could lose up to seven Senators. A loss of three or four Senators would be likely. Labor would gain perhaps half of these extra Senators with the rest going to various other parties.

Following the usual convention of holding the elections together would be a much more sensible strategy. The Coalition would make two quotas in every state. At worst, they would go close enough to two quotas and get enough on preferences to get their second candidate elected.
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« Last Edit: Nov 19th, 2018 at 6:35pm by Bam »  

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
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