Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Nov 17
th, 2018 at 1:03pm:
Double the cost - and double the thumping for the LNP.
How happy will people be voting twice - i dare them to try this!
Here's what would happen if they were to try it: a replication of Wentworth's 19% swing in every Senate contest in the country. It would be seen as an opportunity to make an almighty protest vote.
Here's what could happen to the Coalition if they were to have a 19% swing (refactored as the Coalition losing 1/3 of their primary vote as happened in Wentworth):
NSW: Coalition 24% (1.68 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
Vic: Coalition 22% (1.54 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
Qld: Coalition 23.5% (1.65 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
WA: Coalition 26% (1.82 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
SA: Coalition 22% (1.54 quotas) - 3 Senators up for re-election
Tas: Coalition 22% (1.54 quotas) - 2 Senators up for re-election
The Coalition have two Senators up for re-election in every state (three in SA). If they were to try the Senate-only election, it would be a very risky strategy where they have nothing to gain and they could lose up to seven Senators. A loss of three or four Senators would be likely. Labor would gain perhaps half of these extra Senators with the rest going to various other parties.
Following the usual convention of holding the elections together would be a much more sensible strategy. The Coalition would make two quotas in every state. At worst, they would go close enough to two quotas and get enough on preferences to get their second candidate elected.