Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30
th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
They predict around 2040.
Yes petal And what happens when it cools? See I can make predictions too.
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30
th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
Your selective quote from a footnote from a report about a report does not take into account what they are explaining.
Oh dear. I suggest you go back and look at the SPM for AR5. Does making the same "mistake" count as not knowing what they are saying?
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30
th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
The concept of the Anthropocene can be linked to the aspiration of the Paris Agreement.
And the Anthropocene, much to the dismay of the IPCC, Will Steffen et al, does not exist. It was a thought bubble they tried to influence onto scientists.
"Geologists have classified the last 4,200 years as being a distinct age in the story of our planet.
They are calling it the Meghalayan Age, the onset of which was marked by a mega-drought that crushed a number of civilisations worldwide. "
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44868527This was announced back in July well before the IPCC blurb.They just couldn't let it drop. Poor Will Steffen.
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30
th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
Although rates of change in the Anthropocene
are necessarily assessed over much shorter periods than those used to calculate long-term baseline rates of change, and therefore present challenges for direct comparison, they are nevertheless striking.
Yes. Ignore the longer term data it can look so much more impressive over shorter time scales. Over the longer term the hiccups get lost in the noise.
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30
th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
The rise in global CO2 concentration since 2000 is about 20 ppm/decade, which is up to 10 times
faster than any sustained rise in CO2 during the past 800,000 years (Lüthi et al., 2008; Bereiter et al., 2015).
And yet that ignores the plant stomata data.
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30
th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
Since 1970 the global average temperature
has been rising at a rate of 1.7°C per century, compared to a long-term decline over the past 7,000
years at a baseline rate of 0.01°C per century (NOAA 2016, Marcott et al. 2013).
HMM Marcott 2013? Now what was it he said?
"Q: What do paleotemperature reconstructions show about the temperature of the last 100 years?
A: Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called “uptick” in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions. "
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/03/response-by-marcott-et-al/I believe "since 1970" is in the last 100 odd years.
Funny that they try to pin that on Marcott when he has already refuted it. Must be the way "Climate Seance" operates.
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30
th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere
forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past (e.g., Summerhayes 2015; Foster et al.
2017); even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change
And yet the Holocene Optimum shows the rates are similar. Also the IPCC says most of the warming since the 50's is AGW. Yet Phil Jones CRU said something different. -
"A - Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?"
"Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).
I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.
So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stmExcerpts.
But you go and live your life according to the IPCC.