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The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change (Read 1255 times)
lee
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The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Oct 30th, 2018 at 3:34pm
 
The IPCC has moved away from the World Meteorological Organisation definition of 30 years data for Climate Change.

It is now spread over 30 years, But data for 15 years back and projections for 15 years forward.

Quote:
SPM BOX.1: Core Concepts

5Present level of global warming is defined as the average of a 30-year period centered on 2017 assuming the recent rate of warming continues.

6This range spans the four available peer-reviewed estimates of the observed GMST change and also accounts for additional uncertainty due to possible short-term natural variability. {1.2.1, Table 1.1}


http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf

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« Last Edit: Oct 30th, 2018 at 3:41pm by lee »  
 
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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #1 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 4:26pm
 
They are not "moving the goalposts" ... they are referring to the rolling 30 year average but projecting when the Global Warming figure reaches 1.5 C (which is obviously going to be in the future.)

Predicted to occur sometime around 2040 given the current trend.

...
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lee
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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #2 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 4:49pm
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 4:26pm:
They are not "moving the goalposts" ... they are referring to the rolling 30 year average but projecting when the Global Warming figure reaches 1.5 C (which is obviously going to be in the future.)

Predicted to occur sometime around 2040 given the current trend.



based on model output.

There is data and there is model output. Model output will vary with the underlying assumptions.

Each time the model output has started to get below the the observation they have rejigged the models. From GCM, to CMIP 3 and now CMIP5.

And remember what the IPCC famously said about the climate?

"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm

But it is so cute that you believe they can accurately model the climate. They don't even do clouds or water vapour well.

They have more than 4 parameters (forcings) in their climate models.

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk."

Attributed to von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, as quoted by Freeman Dyson in "A meeting with Enrico Fermi" in Nature 427 (22 January 2004) p. 297

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann

But hey; they only wrote about their "Core Concepts". They didn't really mean it. Wink
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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #3 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 4:59pm
 
But you didn't understand the Core Concepts ... you quoted from the "Executive Summary" as it were-  but failed to go into the detail from the actual report about how they are using a number of data-sets to obtain the best possible prediction of when 1.5 C will be reached given the current trend of CO2 emissions.

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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #4 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:18pm
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 4:59pm:
But you didn't understand the Core Concepts ... you quoted from the "Executive Summary" as it were-  but failed to go into the detail from the actual report about how they are using a number of data-sets to obtain the best possible prediction of when 1.5 C will be reached given the current trend of CO2 emissions.



Oooh. I quoted from the executive summary? Isn't that supposed to be a condensed version of the science?

Actually I know it's not - you just have to read the SPM. Any changes have to reflect the SPM not the science. How bizarre is that?

" Subject to correction, copy-editing, layout and "trickleback" adjustments to the text of the full report to ensure consistency with the approved Summary for Policymakers "

http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/

You do understand Climate Models can't give out "data" sets? They are "What If" scenarios, there is no data there. It is pure speculation.
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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #5 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:23pm
 
This report is in the context of predicting when the Average Global Temperature increase will hit 1.5 C

They predict around 2040.

Your selective quote from a footnote from a report about a report does not take into account what they are explaining.

Obviously they need to work harder, because you don't geddit.  Wink

p.s.

The report referred to in the summary footnote you quoted also says:


Box 1.1: The Anthropocene: Strengthening the global response to 1.5°C global warming

Introduction
The concept of the Anthropocene can be linked to the aspiration of the Paris Agreement.
The abundant empirical evidence of the unprecedented rate and global scale of impact of human influence
on the Earth System (Steffen et al., 2016; Waters et al., 2016) has led many scientists to call for an
acknowledgement that the Earth has entered a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene (Crutzen and
Stoermer, 2000; Crutzen, 2002; Gradstein et al., 2012).

Although rates of change in the Anthropocene
are necessarily assessed over much shorter periods than those used to calculate long-term baseline rates of change, and therefore present challenges for direct comparison, they are nevertheless striking.

The rise in global CO2 concentration since 2000 is about 20 ppm/decade, which is up to 10 times
faster than any sustained rise in CO2 during the past 800,000 years
(Lüthi et al., 2008; Bereiter et al., 2015).

AR5 found that the last geological epoch with similar atmospheric CO2 concentration was the
Pliocene, 3.3 to 3.0 Ma (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013).

Since 1970 the global average temperature
has been rising at a rate of 1.7°C per century, compared to a long-term decline over the past 7,000
years at a baseline rate of 0.01°C per century
(NOAA 2016, Marcott et al. 2013).

These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere
forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past
(e.g., Summerhayes 2015; Foster et al.
2017); even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change

http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_chapter1.pdf
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« Last Edit: Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:36pm by Captain Nemo »  

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lee
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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #6 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 6:09pm
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
They predict around 2040.



Yes petal And what happens when it cools? See I can make predictions too. Wink

Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
Your selective quote from a footnote from a report about a report does not take into account what they are explaining.



Oh dear. I suggest you go back and look at the SPM for AR5. Does making the same "mistake" count as not knowing what they are saying?

Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
The concept of the Anthropocene can be linked to the aspiration of the Paris Agreement.



And the Anthropocene, much to the dismay of the IPCC, Will Steffen et al, does not exist. It was a thought bubble they tried to influence onto scientists.

"Geologists have classified the last 4,200 years as being a distinct age in the story of our planet.

They are calling it the Meghalayan Age, the onset of which was marked by a mega-drought that crushed a number of civilisations worldwide. "

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44868527

This was announced back in July well before the IPCC blurb.They just couldn't let it drop. Poor Will Steffen.

Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
Although rates of change in the Anthropocene
are necessarily assessed over much shorter periods than those used to calculate long-term baseline rates of change, and therefore present challenges for direct comparison, they are nevertheless striking.



Yes. Ignore the longer term data it can look so much more impressive over shorter time scales. Over the longer term the hiccups get lost in the noise.

Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
The rise in global CO2 concentration since 2000 is about 20 ppm/decade, which is up to 10 times
faster than any sustained rise in CO2 during the past 800,000 years (Lüthi et al., 2008; Bereiter et al., 2015).



And yet that ignores the plant stomata data.

Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
Since 1970 the global average temperature
has been rising at a rate of 1.7°C per century, compared to a long-term decline over the past 7,000
years at a baseline rate of 0.01°C per century (NOAA 2016, Marcott et al. 2013).



HMM Marcott 2013? Now what was it he said?

"Q: What do paleotemperature reconstructions show about the temperature of the last 100 years?

A: Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called “uptick” in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions. "

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/03/response-by-marcott-et-al/

I believe "since 1970" is in the last 100 odd years.

Funny that they try to pin that on Marcott when he has already refuted it. Must be the way "Climate Seance" operates. Wink

Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:23pm:
These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere
forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past (e.g., Summerhayes 2015; Foster et al.
2017); even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change


...

And yet the Holocene Optimum shows the rates are similar. Also the IPCC says most of the warming since the 50's is AGW. Yet Phil Jones CRU said something different. -

"A - Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?"

"Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).

I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.

So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

Excerpts.

But you go and live your life according to the IPCC.


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« Last Edit: Oct 30th, 2018 at 6:16pm by lee »  
 
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Marla
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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #7 - Nov 27th, 2018 at 2:13am
 
lee wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 3:34pm:
The IPCC has moved away from the World Meteorological Organisation definition of 30 years data for Climate Change.

It is now spread over 30 years, But data for 15 years back and projections for 15 years forward.

Quote:
SPM BOX.1: Core Concepts

5Present level of global warming is defined as the average of a 30-year period centered on 2017 assuming the recent rate of warming continues.

6This range spans the four available peer-reviewed estimates of the observed GMST change and also accounts for additional uncertainty due to possible short-term natural variability. {1.2.1, Table 1.1}


http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf




Oh look everybody, lee has Koch-funded maps.

Well, I'm convinced
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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #8 - Nov 27th, 2018 at 5:23pm
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 4:26pm:
They are not "moving the goalposts" ... they are referring to the rolling 30 year average but projecting when the Global Warming figure reaches 1.5 C (which is obviously going to be in the future.)

Predicted to occur sometime around 2040 given the current trend.

https://i.imgur.com/RKeh3RM.jpg

2040 means Donald Trump will never have to act...................................
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lee
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Re: The IPCC moves the goalposts on Climate Change
Reply #9 - Nov 27th, 2018 at 8:46pm
 
Marla wrote on Nov 27th, 2018 at 2:13am:
Oh look everybody, lee has Koch-funded maps.

Wiki allows Koch Bros time on wiki? Well that's a turn-up for the books. Grin Grin Grin Grin

Where? Up your unmentionables? Grin Grin Grin Grin

Marla wrote on Nov 27th, 2018 at 2:13am:
Well, I'm convinced


You do understand 15 years forward is projecting, something the IPCC denies doing.

I'm sure you are convinced you are an intellectual as well. Wink
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« Last Edit: Nov 27th, 2018 at 9:29pm by lee »  
 
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