aquascoot wrote on Sep 17
th, 2018 at 2:09pm:
Really?
Record Dow
Record growth
Record low unemployment
Record low unemployment for African Americans and Hispanics.
Seems like bringing in an outsider was a smart move
In the second quarter of this year, the United States economy grew at the amazing rate of 4.1 percent."
Trump is correct about the 4.1 percent growth rate for gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2018. (It’s worth noting that this number could fall, or rise, based on subsequent revisions by government statisticians.)
This is a strong showing in the context of recent history, and the highest since the third quarter of 2014. But most economists would not use the word "amazing" to describe it.
Quarterly increases of at least 4 percent are not unheard of. That level was reached four times under President Barack Obama, including heights Trump has not yet reached, such as 4.6 percent (twice) and 5.2 percent (once). On two other occasions, Obama oversaw 3.9 percent growth.
"We had lost almost 200,000 manufacturing jobs under the previous administration. … Since I was elected, we've added 400,000 new manufacturing jobs."
The math is roughly right, but it needs context. Manufacturing jobs did decline by 192,000 under Obama, and since Trump’s election, they have increased by 373,000.
However, Obama’s numbers look particularly bad because he took office as the Great Recession was in full force — a situation Trump, in his short tenure, has avoided.
Once manufacturing jobs hit rock bottom in February 2010, they increased by 916,000 by the time Obama left office.
The chart below shows that manufacturing employment did weaken slightly during the final three years of Obama’s tenure and began to increase early in Trump’s. So it’s not unreasonable for Trump to cite an uptick on his watch.
That said, the rate of increase has been fairly stable since around 2010, regardless of the president in office.
What it shows is that Trump definitely doesn't know stats.