Kees van der Leun @Sustainable2050 40m40 minutes ago More

Drought in NL: only 12 mm of rain since 1 June, lowest on record, for that period.
Expected rain in the coming week: 0.8 mm. Maybe some more the week after that. https://t.co/lZLfp5XFzS

Expected sea-level rise following Antarctic ice shelves' collapse
Date:
July 19, 2018
Source:
European Geosciences Union

Summary:
Scientists have shown how much sea level would rise if Larsen C and George VI, Antarctic ice shelves at risk of collapse, were to break up. While Larsen C has received much attention due to the break-away of a trillion-ton iceberg from it last summer, its collapse would contribute only a few millimeters to sea-level rise. The break-up of the smaller George VI Ice Shelf would have a much larger impact.

Full Story
Recent, rapid warming in the Antarctic Peninsula is a threat to ice shelves in the region, with Larsen C and George VI considered to have the highest risk of collapse. Because these large ice platforms hold back inland glaciers, the ice carried by these glaciers can flow faster into the sea when the ice shelves collapse, which contributes to sea-level rise. The new study shows that a collapse of Larsen C would result in inland ice discharging about 4 mm to sea level, while the response of glaciers to George VI collapse could contribute over five times more to global sea levels, around 22 mm.

"These numbers, while not enormous in themselves, are only one part of a larger sea-level budget including loss from other glaciers around the world and from the Greenland, East and West Antarctic ice sheets.

Ice losses from Antarctica have tripled since 2012, increasing global sea levels by 0.12 inch (3 millimeters) in that timeframe alone, according to a major new international climate assessment funded by NASA and ESA (European Space Agency).

According to the study, ice losses from Antarctica are causing sea levels to rise faster today than at any time in the past 25 years. Results of the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) were published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

The late summer sun sets over mountains and icebergs around Adelaide Island, Antarctic Peninsula, as 24-hour daylight gives way to the long polar night of winter.
The late summer sun sets over mountains and icebergs around Adelaide Island, Antarctic Peninsula, as 24-hour daylight gives way to the long polar night of winter. Credit: BAS/Hamish Pritchard
“This is the most robust study of the ice mass balance of Antarctica to date,” said assessment team co-lead Erik Ivins at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “It covers a longer period than our 2012 IMBIE study, has a larger pool of participants, and incorporates refinements in our observing capability and an improved ability to assess uncertainties.”

This latest IMBIE is the most complete assessment of Antarctic ice mass changes to date, combining 24 satellite surveys of Antarctica and involving 80 scientists from 42 international organizations.

The Antarctic Peninsula from the air: although the mountains are plastered in snow and ice, measurements tell us that this region is losing ice at an increasing rate.
The Antarctic Peninsula from the air: although the mountains are plastered in snow and ice, measurements tell us that this region is losing ice at an increasing rate. Credit: University of Durham/Pippa Whitehouse
The team looked at the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2017 and found ice losses from Antarctica raised global sea levels by 0.3 inches (7.6 millimeters), with a sharp uptick in ice loss in recent years. They attribute the threefold increase in ice loss from the continent since 2012 to a combination of increased rates of ice melt in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, and reduced growth of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

Prior to 2012, ice was lost at a steady rate of about 83.8 billion tons (76 billion metric tons) per year, contributing about 0.008 inches (0.2 millimeters) a year to sea level rise. Since 2012, the amount of ice loss per year has tripled to 241.4 billion tons (219 billion metric tonnes) – equivalent to about 0.02 inches per year (0.6 millimeters) of sea level rise.

Crevasses near the grounding line of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica.
Crevasses near the grounding line of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica. Credit: University of Washington/I. Joughin
West Antarctica experienced the greatest recent change, with ice loss rising from 58.4 billion tons (53 billion metric tons) per year in the 1990s, to 175.3 billion tons (159 billion metric tons) a year since 2012. Most of this loss came from the huge Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, which are retreating rapidly due to ocean-induced melting.

At the northern tip of the continent, ice-shelf collapse at the Antarctic Peninsula has driven an increase of 27.6 billion tons (25 billion metric tons) in ice loss per year since the early 2000s. Meanwhile, the team found the East Antarctic ice sheet has remained relatively balanced during the past 25 years, gaining an average of 5.5 billion tons (5 billion metric tons) of ice per year.

To keep within the Paris Accord 1.5°C limit rapid decarbonisation needs to be carried out. This will be disruptive. Can be done:

https://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-a-navigant-company-2018-energy-transit...

According to the study, ice losses from Antarctica are causing sea levels to rise faster today than at any time in the past 25 years. Results of the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) were published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

So Antarctica is adding net ice now and this will increase.

Sea level rise following on Antarctic adding net meltwater to the oceans:

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