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House price collapse already started !! (Read 19411 times)
freediver
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #90 - Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:52pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:39pm:
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:26pm:
So again you are using your own ignorance of the history of the housing market as evidence that you are correct?



Where have you been FD for the last 18 years?
Certainly not in Melbourne.

I'll state again but modified -

we haven't seen drops like this for 18 years.


You haven't seen, because you have not looked. You don't know how to look and you still do not know what you would be looking for.

Your ignorance is not evidence that you are correct.
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Bobby.
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #91 - Jul 2nd, 2018 at 10:00pm
 
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:52pm:
Bobby. wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:39pm:
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:26pm:
So again you are using your own ignorance of the history of the housing market as evidence that you are correct?



Where have you been FD for the last 18 years?
Certainly not in Melbourne.

I'll state again but modified -

we haven't seen drops like this for 18 years.


You haven't seen, because you have not looked. You don't know how to look and you still do not know what you would be looking for.

Your ignorance is not evidence that you are correct.



No - it just shows that an effective graph cannot be found.
In this case we reply upon expert knowledge.
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freediver
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #92 - Jul 2nd, 2018 at 10:07pm
 
The fact that you think one graphs is all it would take just proves you do not even know where to begin informing yourself.
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Lionel Edriess
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #93 - Jul 2nd, 2018 at 10:11pm
 

The fit will really hit the shan if interest rates hit the double digits as they they did 30 years ago. House prices will be meaningless.

Anyone here remember 17% interest rates?
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #94 - Jul 3rd, 2018 at 12:04am
 
Property prices have fallen for 9 straight months is what I just heard on news radio Wink

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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #95 - Jul 3rd, 2018 at 12:06am
 
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:52pm:
Bobby. wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:39pm:
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:26pm:
So again you are using your own ignorance of the history of the housing market as evidence that you are correct?



Where have you been FD for the last 18 years?
Certainly not in Melbourne.

I'll state again but modified -

we haven't seen drops like this for 18 years.


You haven't seen, because you have not looked. You don't know how to look and you still do not know what you would be looking for.

Your ignorance is not evidence that you are correct.


don't worry mate, what goes up must come down or do you like most aussies arrogantly think that you know something that the rest of the world does not know ??
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Stig
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #96 - Jul 3rd, 2018 at 11:54am
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 3rd, 2018 at 12:06am:
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:52pm:
Bobby. wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:39pm:
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:26pm:
So again you are using your own ignorance of the history of the housing market as evidence that you are correct?



Where have you been FD for the last 18 years?
Certainly not in Melbourne.

I'll state again but modified -

we haven't seen drops like this for 18 years.


You haven't seen, because you have not looked. You don't know how to look and you still do not know what you would be looking for.

Your ignorance is not evidence that you are correct.


don't worry mate, what goes up must come down or do you like most aussies arrogantly think that you know something that the rest of the world does not know ??


Really?

How long until I can buy a house in Sydney for $400k again

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« Last Edit: Jul 3rd, 2018 at 7:12pm by Stig »  
 
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freediver
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #97 - Jul 3rd, 2018 at 12:11pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:39pm:
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:26pm:
So again you are using your own ignorance of the history of the housing market as evidence that you are correct?



Where have you been FD for the last 18 years?
Certainly not in Melbourne.

I'll state again but modified -

we haven't seen drops like this for 18 years.


You have not seen them, but you have not been looking. You do not even know where to look. Living somewhere is not the same thing as knowing what is going on.
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Vuk11
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #98 - Jul 3rd, 2018 at 2:52pm
 
freediver wrote on Jun 20th, 2018 at 9:10pm:
Quote:
$360 billion is a lot of money.


Yes, that's what the journalist was going for. A scary statistic. No need to think any more.

If you saw an article about the billions of tonnes of our dirt getting shipped to China, would you fret that the country is going to disappear into the ocean?


You're a brilliant devils advocate and people need to consider these things when reading scary headlines.....however, the stats show a larger portion of loans are being forced onto P+I because of the new restrictions forced on the banks around the proportion of loans that are allowed to be Interest Only among other controls. So it's not fairy tail, at a time when mortgage stress has hit 30% (peak of the GFC was 20%) banks are being forced to put people into structures a lot of them can't afford.

Anecdotally though as well, everything I have heard from the banks and their brokers is that the lending gate are all but shut, tighter than a ***** ******** **** and that refinances and investment loans are being forced onto P+I.
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Bobby.
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #99 - Jul 3rd, 2018 at 4:55pm
 
freediver wrote on Jul 3rd, 2018 at 12:11pm:
Bobby. wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:39pm:
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:26pm:
So again you are using your own ignorance of the history of the housing market as evidence that you are correct?



Where have you been FD for the last 18 years?
Certainly not in Melbourne.

I'll state again but modified -

we haven't seen drops like this for 18 years.


You have not seen them, but you have not been looking. You do not even know where to look. Living somewhere is not the same thing as knowing what is going on.


So you doubt my expert witness testimony?
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freediver
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #100 - Jul 3rd, 2018 at 6:48pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Jul 3rd, 2018 at 4:55pm:
freediver wrote on Jul 3rd, 2018 at 12:11pm:
Bobby. wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:39pm:
freediver wrote on Jul 2nd, 2018 at 9:26pm:
So again you are using your own ignorance of the history of the housing market as evidence that you are correct?



Where have you been FD for the last 18 years?
Certainly not in Melbourne.

I'll state again but modified -

we haven't seen drops like this for 18 years.


You have not seen them, but you have not been looking. You do not even know where to look. Living somewhere is not the same thing as knowing what is going on.


So you doubt my expert witness testimony?


I believe you don't walk around with your eyes shut. That is not the same as knowing what you are talking about.
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #101 - Jul 6th, 2018 at 11:43am
 
Check it out. The RC into banks has pricked the bubble Wink

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/fall-in-housing-prices-will-be-quite-a-bit-la...

Quote:
Fall in housing prices will be ‘quite a bit larger than expected’

ONE of Australia’s biggest banks has backflipped on a previous prediction that housing prices were going to pick up.

In a research note published yesterday, ANZ Bank has warned the steady decline in the country’s housing prices wasn’t only going to keep dropping, the pace of the decline was also going to pick up.

ANZ senior economist Daniel Gradwell said the “weakness in Australia’s housing market has persisted longer than we expected, and the rate of decline in prices has recently accelerated”.

Mr Gradwell attributed a number of things to the fall in housing prices, including the shift away from interest only loans and tightening on credit in the wake of the royal commission.

Those changes in customer behaviour suggests “the fall in house prices will be quite a bit larger than we previously expected, with recovery coming later,” Mr Gradwell said.

In the past 10 months, nine of those have seen lower housing prices, according to CoreLogic data.

Canberra is one of the only capital cities that has a housing market that isn’t in a state of downturn. Picture: Lukas Coch

Across some of the capital cities, Sydney has seen some of the worst price drops.

In July 2017, houses in Sydney were selling for 4.2 per cent more than they are now.

And while Melbourne initially fought the slump in housing prices, the Victorian capital has now seen worse price falls than Sydney in the past three months.

But it isn’t all bad news across Australia — homes in Canberra and Hobart are selling for more than they were a year ago and the post-mining slump in Perth is easing.

National auction clearance rates are the worst they’ve been in five years.

In February, 66 per cent of homes were selling at auction but in May, that clearance rate was 58 per cent — the worst month since January 2013.

While things aren’t as good as they were last year, Mr Gradwell said it was important to note that “these movements pale in comparison to previous cycles”.

In the wake of the banking royal commission, where dozens of Australians spoke about being given loans they were not in any position to pay off, banks are expected to tighten their lending standards.

Mr Gradwell said it was the landmark royal commission — which directly impacted the availability of credit — that was the “primary driver” behind the slowdown of housing prices.

The ANZ senior economist forecast the market will have stabilised by the end of the year, hoping our strong population growth and record low interest rates would directly influence and lift housing prices.

Australia’s home building boom also appears to be running out of steam — a direct reaction to the nation’s housing price downturn.

On an annual basis, housing prices are in reverse for the first time since 2012.

National housing prices fell 0.1 per cent in May, taking the annual loss to 0.4 per cent, which was the first time values have fallen on annual basis since October, 2012, according to property data firm CoreLogic.

CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said tighter credit availability and a high number of units being built despite weakening foreign investor interest are key factors behind the decline.

“The most significant driver of this turnaround has been tighter credit availability, particularly for those borrowing for investment purposes,” he said.

“Additionally, a high number of units remain under construction, with demand impacted by fewer foreign buyers and less domestic investment in the market.”
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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freediver
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #102 - Jul 6th, 2018 at 12:18pm
 
Quote:
On an annual basis, housing prices are in reverse for the first time since 2012.

National housing prices fell 0.1 per cent in May, taking the annual loss to 0.4 per cent, which was the first time values have fallen on annual basis since October, 2012, according to property data firm CoreLogic.


0.4% eh? Do you think it will trigger another GFC?
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #103 - Jul 6th, 2018 at 12:29pm
 
freediver wrote on Jul 6th, 2018 at 12:18pm:
Quote:
On an annual basis, housing prices are in reverse for the first time since 2012.

National housing prices fell 0.1 per cent in May, taking the annual loss to 0.4 per cent, which was the first time values have fallen on annual basis since October, 2012, according to property data firm CoreLogic.


0.4% eh? Do you think it will trigger another GFC?


Yes the GFC that we avoided by inflating a property bubble with massive amounts of borrowed money when the rest of the world was unwinding all of their housing debt !!

And you conveniently missed this Wink

Quote:
In July 2017, houses in Sydney were selling for 4.2 per cent more than they are now.

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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freediver
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #104 - Jul 6th, 2018 at 6:08pm
 
I also left out residential unit prices in those three suburbs in Melbourne that Bobby got all worked up about. Is there any other qualifiers you want me to put on that 0.4% drop in house prices?
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