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House price collapse already started !! (Read 19395 times)
Stig
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #195 - Jul 25th, 2018 at 10:12am
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 24th, 2018 at 11:26pm:
They had mass immigration in Ireland and guess what happened ? It didn't stop it. If the banks can no longer throw money at it then you can have all of the immigration you want and it won't stop a crash.


Ireland's net immigration rate per capita was close to half ours even at the peak of the "Celtic Tiger" days, and fell to zero around the time of the crash?

Anything else?
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #196 - Jul 25th, 2018 at 11:55am
 
Stig wrote on Jul 25th, 2018 at 10:12am:
Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 24th, 2018 at 11:26pm:
They had mass immigration in Ireland and guess what happened ? It didn't stop it. If the banks can no longer throw money at it then you can have all of the immigration you want and it won't stop a crash.


Ireland's net immigration rate per capita was close to half ours even at the peak of the "Celtic Tiger" days, and fell to zero around the time of the crash?

Anything else?


Watch it and weep. It's a text book copy of what is happening in Australia today. Now you know what will happen next Wink


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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Stig
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #197 - Jul 25th, 2018 at 9:12pm
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 25th, 2018 at 11:55am:
Now you know what will happen next Wink



Yeah - Trump's trade war threats peak interest from Chinese investors in Australian property again

https://www.domain.com.au/news/ussino-trade-war-pushes-australia-back-to-the-top...


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rhino
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #198 - Jul 25th, 2018 at 9:14pm
 
Stig wrote on Jul 25th, 2018 at 10:09am:
Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 24th, 2018 at 2:30pm:
Watch it and see. Those conditions are identical to what we have in Australia right now. Or are you going to tell us that Australia has a well regulated banking system Cheesy LOL That won't wash with the punters anymore Wink


Really?

We have a corporate tax rate of 11%?
We're part of the EU?
We have a net migration rate falling to zero?
Our largest trading partners include Belgium and Switzerland?

Wow - heaps of similarities there
Don't argue with the idiot, he will beat you with experience. Hes on the bones of his arse but knows everything about finance.
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #199 - Jul 25th, 2018 at 10:17pm
 
Stig wrote on Jul 25th, 2018 at 9:12pm:
Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 25th, 2018 at 11:55am:
Now you know what will happen next Wink



Yeah - Trump's trade war threats peak interest from Chinese investors in Australian property again

https://www.domain.com.au/news/ussino-trade-war-pushes-australia-back-to-the-top...




And the chinese are going to buy up all areas this time Cheesy LOL

The Domains advertising revenue must have dropped considerably for them to make up this sh.t Cheesy LOL
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #200 - Aug 2nd, 2018 at 9:36am
 
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-property-market-house-prices-downtu...

Quote:
Australian home prices have fallen for 10 months, but this economist warns the worst is yet to come

Australian home prices fell faster, and in more locations, during July, suggesting weakness in Sydney and Melbourne is now starting to impact values in other parts of the country.

According to CoreLogic’s Hedonic Home Value Index, Australia’s median home price fell 0.6% to $554,263 last month, the largest percentage fall in close to seven years.

The acceleration, significantly faster than the 0.2% decline reported in June, left values down 0.9% over the past three months, and 1.9% over the year.

The annual decline was the fastest in six years, largely reflecting that prices in Sydney and Melbourne have both fallen over this period, dropping 5.4% and 0.5% respectively.

In the past three months alone, Melbourne’s median price has fallen 1.8%, outpacing a 1.1% slide in Sydney. Three of Australia’s remaining six capitals — Perth, Darwin and Canberra — as well as prices in regional areas, also fell over this period.

Some, such as AMP Capital Chief Economist Shane Oliver, think the Sydney and Melbourne-led price unwind is just getting started, forecasting that prices in both cities are likely to fall by another 10 to 12% over the next couple of years, continuing the measured pullback after years of unrelenting growth.

Paul Dales, Chief Australia and New Zealand Economist at Capital Economics, shares a similar view to Oliver, suggesting his “relatively bearish” forecast that prices will gradually fall by 12% from peak to trough is “starting to look a bit optimistic”.

Based on the latest data provided by CoreLogic, Dales thinks the worst is yet to come.

“Prices in Sydney fell by 0.8% in July after seasonal adjustments, and are 5.4% below their peak and falling at a three-month annualised rate of 6.6%,” he says.

“In Melbourne, prices dropped by a larger 0.9% in July and for the first time since November 2012 the annual growth rate turned negative.

“Prices in Melbourne are still only 3.0% below their peak, but they are now falling at a three-month annualised rate of 8.3%.”

So the declines are getting steeper, a trend that Dales believes will continue.

“Most worrying is that prices will soon be falling at an even faster pace,” he says.

“The further decline in the number of home sales in March — the latest month of reliable data — to a seven-year low was larger than the fall in the number of new listings.

“In other words, demand is deteriorating at a faster rate than supply is improving.

“That suggests house prices in the eight capital cities will soon be falling by 5% a year.”


The chart below from Capital Economics shows the ratio of capital city sales to new property listings on a three-month moving average basis, overlaid against annual changes in capital city home prices. The former has been advanced by eight months to show the relationship between the two measures.


There was a song written about this Cheesy LOL



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« Last Edit: Aug 2nd, 2018 at 9:49am by Sir lastnail »  

In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #201 - Aug 2nd, 2018 at 9:47am
 
cont...

Quote:
While not a perfect relationship by any stretch, it’s not the only housing indicator pointing to further price weakness ahead.

Auction clearance rates in both Sydney and Melbourne remain entrenched below 60%, typical with levels that have seen property prices fall in the past. The lower proportion of cleared sales also suggests there’s still quite a gulf between what prices buyers can or willing to pay compared to vendor expectations.

The gradual rollout of tighter lending standards has undoubtedly been a factor, limiting the amount borrowers can obtain to fund their property purchase.

In cities such as Sydney and Melbourne, where house price to income ratios are significantly higher than other parts of the country, these income-based restrictions have contributed to larger price declines than the national average.

The question now is whether these restrictions will be relaxed, allowing borrowers to “pay up” for more expensive property, or will they be tightened further, pointing to the likelihood that it will be vendors that will have to lower their price expectations in order to achieve a sale.

Dales thinks on the scale of probabilities, it will likely be the latter.

“There is still a big risk that the Royal Commission investigation into the banks results in a further tightening in lending standards,” he says.

Adding to downside risks for prices, Dales says the full effect of recent small increases in mortgage rates by some lenders, and the tightening in credit criteria by all lenders, has yet to be truly felt.


Given the recent trends, and likelihood of larger price declines ahead, Dales says there’s not an insignificant risk that weakness in the housing market will spillover into the broader Australian economy.

“The acceleration in the housing downturn in July should make the RBA and some other analysts sit up and take notice,” he says.

“The danger is that house prices fall too far, too quickly and undermine economic growth in the near-term. The RBA hasn’t said exactly what it is expecting to happen to house prices, but we’d bet that prices are falling faster and further than it anticipated.”

At its July monetary policy meeting, the RBA expressed little concern over recent developments in house prices, simply noting they had fallen “moderately in Sydney and Melbourne following significant growth over preceding years”. It added they had been “little changed over the preceding six months in other cities on average”.

While the housing market slowdown has been deliberately engineered by the RBA and other members of Australia’s Council of Financial Regulators to help address what were growing financial stability risks for households and lenders, one has to wonder how far prices have to fall before the RBA publicly expresses some concern?

We’ll hear plenty from the RBA in the coming days with its August monetary policy statement, its quarterly statement on monetary policy, as well as a speech by Governor Lowe, all arriving next week.

Given recent information received, markets are likely to be alert to any hints of increased concern.
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Bobby.
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #202 - Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:37am
 
Hi Nail,
I was going to buy another house a month ago but I'm holding back
as every month they seem to get cheaper.
I wonder where the bottom of the market is?
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #203 - Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:51am
 
Bobby. wrote on Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:37am:
Hi Nail,
I was going to buy another house a month ago but I'm holding back
as every month they seem to get cheaper.
I wonder where the bottom of the market is?


ask whino. he seems to know everything about houses Cheesy LOL
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Bobby.
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #204 - Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:55am
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:51am:
Bobby. wrote on Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:37am:
Hi Nail,
I was going to buy another house a month ago but I'm holding back
as every month they seem to get cheaper.
I wonder where the bottom of the market is?


ask whino. he seems to know everything about houses Cheesy LOL



Yeah Rhino - tell me the best course of action?
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #205 - Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:57am
 
Bobby. wrote on Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:55am:
Sir lastnail wrote on Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:51am:
Bobby. wrote on Aug 2nd, 2018 at 10:37am:
Hi Nail,
I was going to buy another house a month ago but I'm holding back
as every month they seem to get cheaper.
I wonder where the bottom of the market is?


ask whino. he seems to know everything about houses Cheesy LOL



Yeah Rhino - tell me the best course of action?


whino will tell you to get out the timing light and check the timing Cheesy LOL

...


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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Sir lastnail
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Re: House price collapse already started !!
Reply #206 - Aug 2nd, 2018 at 12:38pm
 
This is what happens when you put all of your eggs in one basket with no backup plan !

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-worst-is-yet-to-come-house-price...

Quote:
'The worst is yet to come': House prices fall by fastest rate in six years.'

House prices have fallen at their fastest rate in more than six years, fuelling concerns that prices in Sydney and Melbourne may fall "too far, too quickly", hurt economic growth and drive anxiety among policymakers

The market now predicts house prices could fall by more than 10 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne from their peak by the time the market stabilises in 2019.  They have already been falling for 10 months straight.

Such a result would make the housing market a central issue at the next federal election, due to be held before May next year, as the Coalition highlights fears that Labor's negative gearing restrictions could further dampen the market.

Analysts have warned the "worst is yet to come" and that house prices will sink further as demand falls at a faster rate than the decrease in available properties. They suggest house prices across the capital cities could drop by up to 5 per cent a year, on top of the 2.4 per cent slide in the year to July.

House prices have risen by up to 45 per cent over the past five years in Sydney and Melbourne. In the past year, record levels of population growth have not made up for investors exiting the market as banks restrict their lending under orders from the regulator and the Turnbull government.

Capital Economics chief economist Paul Dales said the most worrying aspect was that "prices will soon be falling at an even faster pace".

"The further decline in the number of home sales in March to a seven-year low was larger than the fall in the number of new listings," he said.

He warned this was before the full effect of the banking royal commission was known.

Banks have tightened their books in response to revelations at the commission, putting the financial system on a surer footing, but risking steeper price drops.

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chair Wayne Byres said in July that the “heavy lifting on lending standards has largely been done," but Mr Dales warned "there is still a big risk that the royal commission results in a further tightening in lending standards."

Mr Dales said the acceleration in the housing downturn in July should make the Reserve Bank sit up and take notice.

"The danger is that house prices fall too far, too quickly and undermine economic growth in the near-term," he said.

"The RBA hasn’t said exactly what it is expecting to happen to house prices, but we’d bet that prices are falling faster and further than the bank anticipated."

The CoreLogic capital city index fell by 0.6 per cent in July. Melbourne fell the fastest in July, down by 0.8 per cent followed by Perth, down 0.8 per cent and Sydney down 0.6 per cent.

Prices are now 5.4 per cent below their peak in Sydney and 3 per cent below in Melbourne.

The housing downturn was partly engineered by Treasurer Scott Morrison to help first home-buyers get a foot back into the market as housing affordability dominated policy discussion in Canberra last year.

Mr Morrison said in July that restrictions on investor credit were having "the desired effect of of bringing the Sydney and Melbourne house markets back to more normal transmission".

He said the measures had taken pressure off the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy to stop runaway house prices.

"I think those pressures have now been largely extinguished and those markets have moved back to more modest growth levels and not being driven so much by investor sentiment but the fundamentals of supply and demand," he said.

On Wednesday, he said Labor could not be trusted to deliver confidence in house prices.

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said Labor's clampdown on negative gearing - which gives investors tax deductions on their properties - would not apply retrospectively and that it would level the playing field for home-buyers.

"Now of course we have seen some of the heat come out of Sydney in particular, but I still talk to young people who are struggling to get into the housing market," he said last week.

"Our policy which was designed carefully for a whole range of circumstances, of course that is what we will take to the election."
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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