The Rise of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles is now inevitable as people realize the all electrics are fiery deathtraps.Zero Emission Fuel CellsArticle by Randy MacEwen, President & CEO Jan. 23, 2018
KPMG recently published its 19th consecutive Global Automotive Executive Survey 2018.
The survey concluded, “There will not be a single solitary drivetrain technology: Executives project a similar split by 2040 for
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) (26%),
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) (25%),
ICEs (Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) (25%) and hybrids (24%).
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The report also noted, “FCEVs have replaced BEVs as this year’s #1 key trend until 2025.” Yes, you read that correctly – hydrogen fuel cell vehicles top the list as the key trend.
Notwithstanding inflammatory commentary by some well-known electric car proponents, Ballard is very excited about the long-term opportunity for fuel cell electric passenger cars. Here’s why.
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
7 Reasons Why the World is Ready for Fuel Cell Passenger Cars1. The Market is MassiveMost people know from personal experience that the global automotive industry is huge. Consider the following two ways to evaluate the size of the market.
First, let’s consider the market as a function of the aggregate sales price of new cars sold each year. There are 80 million cars sold each year globally. At an average selling price of US$19k, this translates to a US$1.5 trillion annual market. This is equivalent to approximately 2% of global GDP.
Second, let’s consider the total addressable market as a function of the number of miles driven each year. There are 10 trillion miles traveled annually by the global population of cars. At an average cost of US$1/mile, this implies a market size of US$10 trillion. This is equivalent to approximately 13% of global GDP.
Here are a few additional facts to punctuate the size of the automotive market. Transportation is the second largest expense for US households, and 70% of total US petroleum usage is for transportation.
Consistent with the results in the KPMG survey, we also believe there will be a number of drivetrain solutions to meet differing market requirements and use cases for passenger vehicles. We also believe FCEVs will play an important role in a certain number of these use cases.
2. Attractive FCEV Targets are Being SetA key industry development in 2017 was the formation of the Hydrogen Council, launched at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The Hydrogen Council is a global initiative of leading energy, transport and industry companies with a united vision of hydrogen as a key part of the future energy transition. The Hydrogen Council has the following target for FCEVs in 2030:
350,000 commercial trucks
50,000 buses
Thousands of trains and ships
1 in 12 cars sold in California, Germany, Japan and South Korea
and the following target for FCEVs in 2050:
15 to 20 million commercial trucks
5 million buses
25% of passenger ships
20% of trains
400 million passenger cars
3. The Need for Deep Decarbonization
The heightened interest in electrification, including in FCEVs, is being driven in part by the global movement towards addressing climate change and air pollution through decarbonization. This direction was highlighted in 2017 with several countries proposing or passing laws that would ban ICE-based vehicles.
Britain and France each outlined a plan to ban ICEs in vehicles by 2040.
India is targeting all vehicles on the road to be powered by clean energy by 2030.
In Norway, over 20% of new vehicles sold today are electric and the government wants 100% of sales to be zero-emission by 2025. The Netherlands is also following suit. Germany is reviewing a similar objective.
There is indication that the California Air Resources Board is also considering a move toward zero-emission vehicles.
China is reviewing a timeline for banning ICEs.
In 2017, we also saw unprecedented developments at the city level when 12 of the C40 cities – including London, Paris, Los Angeles, Copenhagen, Barcelona, Vancouver, Mexico City, Milan, and Seattle – signed the “C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration” – establishing a target of procuring only zero-emission transit buses by the year 2025. Over the next few years, we expect more countries and cities to set up plans to ban ICE-based vehicles.
One important consideration that has received relatively low attention is the true “wells to wheels” GHG analysis for alternative powertrain technologies. BEVs are characterized as zero tailpipe emissions. This is true. However, it’s also important to consider the GHG and other emissions associated with:
the electricity required to recharge batteries
Read rest of the inevitable rise of FCEV and the inevitable decline of BEV herehttp://blog.ballard.com/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles