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Relationship to Lies (Read 8524 times)
Jovial Monk
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Relationship to Lies
May 24th, 2018 at 1:38pm
 
Booby’s hero David Dubyne is lying his head off about the Hawaii volcano being caused by a GSM.

Firstly—the Sun is not entering a GSM: there are no scientific papers about it.

Secondly, it takes a long time for the earth to build up to a volcanic eruption or earthquake.

For volcanoes a hot spot has to build up to create firstly the pool of liquid magma and then build the pressure to blow away the covering of rocks and solidified lava if it is an established volcano and eject the magma as lava.

This build up, the melting of rock into liquid magma, the build up of pressure takes years, decades. When the pressure reaches closer to the surface seismometers can detect the small earthquakes as the magma chamber rises due to the increasing pressure from below.

Hot spots are created by slow convection currents in the mantle.

Major earthquakes are created by plate tectonics. In the mid–ocean ridges magma intrudes, pushing the ocean floor on either side of the ridge apart and ejecting lava that makes new sea floor. Ocean floor, therefor, is constantly created and older ocean floor pushed away. At the other side, sea floor subducts, slides under if you like, a continental plate.

This sliding is not smooth, friction etc resists the motion then is suddenly overcome and an earthquake results. These earthquakes originate deep in the crust.

So, it is purely coincidental if a volcano or two erupts or a big earthquake happens when the sun is in a Grand Solar Minimum.

As I have said before, fifty years of heavy volcanic activity is thought to be one of the triggers leading to the formation of the LIA. So the frauds and liars, like Dubyne, like Diamond the Dave, like Ice Age Farmer and other creeps love to mention volcanoes. Besides, volcanic eruptions are awesome so why not harness that awe would be the grubs’ thinking.

Sometimes they hint that Galactic Cosmic Rays are what causes the volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Kind of a Universal Solvent the Cosmic Rays. They sound scientific and come from the galaxy, cor!

A bit of thinking—sadly lacking in most people—would show them that GCRs couldn’t melt a grain of sand, let alone melt gigatons of rock. Ever notice that when you have an XRay, even the little ones your dentist uses, the radiographer retreats to a lead lined cubicle?

A lifetime of exposure to XRays might cause cancer or other health problems for the radiographer. A collection of CRs capable of melting thousands of tons of rocks would wipe life from the surface of the earth!

Do not fall for snake oil.
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« Last Edit: May 24th, 2018 at 2:04pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Reply #1 - May 24th, 2018 at 1:39pm
 
Some of the morons believing everything the snake oil sellers tell them should do a bit of searching.

Volcanoes
Orogeny
Plate Tectonics
Radiation
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Jovial Monk
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Reply #2 - May 24th, 2018 at 7:20pm
 
Just posted a link to this in response to a lying post by Booby’s hero David Dubyne.

Apparently it is raining in Florida.

With AGW having heated the Mexican Gulf, with the AMOC having slowed down concentrating heat in the North Atlantic off the US east coast what else is expected but rain?

Morons like Booby and The Moronic would accept it is the sign of the “ice age” but they have little brain and no education.
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Jovial Monk
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Reply #3 - May 24th, 2018 at 9:09pm
 
And Booby just posted a heap of crap by Dubyne.

1901 we had good Arctic ice data? Nah, 1979- we had complete satellite coverage of the Arctic.

Yes, April 2018 may be a tad cooler than April 2017 which was hardly cooler than El Nino year 2016. Point is not that it is cooling a tad, point is that it is cooling so little!

Some growth in Arctic ice May 2018 compared to May 2016 but not much. Was less ice in the Arctic winter this year than in 2016 winter.

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« Last Edit: May 25th, 2018 at 8:51am by Jovial Monk »  

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Bobby.
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Reply #4 - May 24th, 2018 at 9:21pm
 
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/al-gores-global-warmin...


Al Gore’s global warming vision proves more mirage than material.



Al Gore’s vision of a dangerous ­climate “tipping point”, foreshadowed in his 2007 book Assault on Reason, has failed to materialise, according to a top American business professor who a decade ago challenged the former US vice- president to bet on how global ­ave­rage temperature would change.

Mr Gore’s staff said he did not take bets, but a decade on Scott Armstrong, a business professor at the Wharton Business School, has concluded that global temperature deviations since 2007 had easily fallen within the natural level of variation, and “no change” was the most accurate way to describe global weather patterns over the past decade.

“When you lack scientific evidence, the primary way to keep ‘global warming’ alive is to avoid having a testable hypothesis,” Professor Armstrong said, mocking how some observers had “touted the extremely cold weather that occurred in January (in the northern hemisphere) as another piece of evidence of global warming”.

The UN’s 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected warming of 3C every century, which prompted governments to introduce taxes and regulations to curb CO2 emissions.

Professor Armstrong said he had seen “no dangerous long-term trends” in temperature data and, in any case, “like most people”, he would prefer temperatures “a little warmer”. “A few years ago, people in the US were asked how much tax they would be willing to pay on gasoline to completely eliminate dangerous global warming — the amount was about a dollar.”


Professor Armstrong and his academic colleague Kesten Green at the University of South Australia took Mr Gore’s “tipping point” scenario, charitably, to be the “business as usual” forecast from the UN’s 2001 panel on climate change, which had anticipated a 0.3C increase in average global temperature every decade.

The “bet” was monitored on theclimatebet.com site using global temperature data from University of Alabama researchers.

“Global temperatures have ­always varied on all timescales and Professor Armstrong was not highly confident that he would win a 10-year bet when temperatures had commonly drifted up or down by 0.3C over 10-year periods in the past,” Dr Green said.

The monthly data showed the years from 2008 to 2014 were largely cooler than the 2007 average deviation, while 2016 and last year were warmer. Between AD16 and 1935, a “no change” forecast over periods of one to 100 years was “much more accurate” than a hypothesis of global cooling or warming, the academics said.

The 2001 IPCC report said “...the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible”.

“The fact the last two years … favoured the warming forecast is meaningless in the context of the swings in temperature that ­occurred during the bet, and that will continue to occur in the ­future,” Dr Green said.

“Basing public policy on failed alarmist scenarios is irrational, and is causing enormous harm.”
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lee
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Re: Relationship to Lies
Reply #5 - May 24th, 2018 at 9:23pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 24th, 2018 at 9:09pm:
1901 we had good Arctic ice data? Nah, 1979- we had complete satellite coverage of the Arctic.


yeah and they didn't sail the Arctic in the 19th century. Wink

And the satellite data is from 1975 in the IPCC First Assessment Report.

then -

"After being in storage for more than 40 years, data recovered from NASA's Nimbus I, II, and III missions are extending the polar sea ice record back to the 1960s and giving scientists new views of this changing environment. "

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/new-data-from-old-satellites-a-nimbus-success-story

"The most complete ocean-wide historical information is that available for the Arctic in the monthly ice charts for April to August or September published by the Danish Meteorological Institute (1901- 39 and 1946- 50). The data coverage is moderately good in the North Atlantic sector where charts are available from 1877 (Ryder, 1896). For the Barents Sea, Norwegian
records are available from 1853 -1900s"

https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/files/nsidc-special-report-15.pdf

NSIDC consider April 2016 and 2018 a statistical tie for sea ice. According to their Charctic there is a difference of over 80K square kilometres

Of course the SST for the world's oceans are considered by some (JM for example) to be of superior quality even though there is a paucity of data. Wink
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« Last Edit: May 24th, 2018 at 9:33pm by lee »  
 
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Bobby.
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Reply #6 - May 24th, 2018 at 9:24pm
 
'We have to change': Al Gore warns Dubai forum of climate crisis



https://www.thenational.ae/uae/we-have-to-change-al-gore-warns-dubai-forum-of-cl...


Speaking on the final day of the Global Education and Skills Forum in Dubai on Sunday, the former US Vice President said climate change is the great challenge of our time.


Former US Vice President Al Gore says climate change will lead to 1 billion climate refugees in this century. Satish Kumar for The National

Melting highways. Birds falling dead from the sky. Rain bombs. Flying rivers. Drought. Zero Day.

Former US Vice President Al Gore didn’t mince words as he presented his vision of the future if humanity fails to act on climate change.

Armed with his trademark PowerPoint graphics and statistics, Mr Gore used the closing plenary address on the final day of the Global Education and Skills Forum in Dubai on Sunday to bring attention to the “climate crisis,” which he said was the “great challenge” of our modern times.

“Our future is at risk,” said Mr Gore. “We have to change.”
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Jovial Monk
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Reply #7 - May 24th, 2018 at 9:47pm
 
lee wrote on May 24th, 2018 at 9:23pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on May 24th, 2018 at 9:09pm:
1901 we had good Arctic ice data? Nah, 1979- we had complete satellite coverage of the Arctic.


yeah and they didn't sail the Arctic in the 19th century. Wink

And the satellite data is from 1975 in the IPCC First Assessment Report.

then -

"After being in storage for more than 40 years, data recovered from NASA's Nimbus I, II, and III missions are extending the polar sea ice record back to the 1960s and giving scientists new views of this changing environment. "

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/new-data-from-old-satellites-a-nimbus-success-story

"The most complete ocean-wide historical information is that available for the Arctic in the monthly ice charts for April to August or September published by the Danish Meteorological Institute (1901- 39 and 1946- 50). The data coverage is moderately good in the North Atlantic sector where charts are available from 1877 (Ryder, 1896). For the Barents Sea, Norwegian
records are available from 1853 -1900s"

https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/files/nsidc-special-report-15.pdf

NSIDC consider April 2016 and 2018 a statistical tie for sea ice. According to their Charctic there is a difference of over 80K square kilometres

Of course the SST for the world's oceans are considered by some (JM for example) to be of superior quality even though there is a paucity of data. Wink


I know, they had a better idea of the Arctic in 1901 without even planes than we do now with satellites and computers to crunch numbers. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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lee
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Reply #8 - May 24th, 2018 at 10:16pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 24th, 2018 at 9:47pm:
I know, they had a better idea of the Arctic in 1901 without even planes than we do now with satellites and computers to crunch numbers.


Of course it wasn't what I said. Just you trying to skew the debate.  Did they have a "good" idea of the data; or were they just incompetent nincompoops?


As I said; you consider the Sea Surface Temperature back to 1880 to be good. What do you think the error bars are on that?

JM backed into a corner fights back with words not said. How strangely unusual.

Tell us about the satellites only going back to 1979 again. Wink

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Jovial Monk
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Reply #9 - May 24th, 2018 at 10:39pm
 
Nothing to do with SST.

I said we have a better idea since 1979 thanks to satellites. You now agree  Smiley

The world has cooled a little bit since 2016 but not very much. This is unusual.

There is a smidge more ice now than at the same time in 2016.
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Bobby.
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Reply #10 - May 24th, 2018 at 10:42pm
 
The mad Monk's hero Al Gore is lying his head off.
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Jovial Monk
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Reply #11 - May 25th, 2018 at 7:08am
 
Al Gore, some politician, right Booby? You mention him lots, I never mention him.

You are a liar Booby and are going straight to Hell when you die. You blaspheme about the Bible and lie. You use violent images all the time.

Straight to Hell with Booby!
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DonDeeHippy
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Reply #12 - May 25th, 2018 at 8:07am
 
Hey Monk since your absence in Environment u might be able to help with a paper Lee posted up
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL076649
Ill highlight the bit he did, I've read the thing many times and I and apparently Lee don't really have any idea what it is saying maybe you could help ?

Reliable climate projections at the regional scale are needed in order to evaluate climate change impacts and inform policy. We develop an alternative method for projections based on the transient climate sensitivity (TCS), which relies on a linear relationship between the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing. The TCS is evaluated at the regional scale (5° by 5°), and projections are made accordingly to 2100 using the high and low Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios. We find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high. Given that the GCM Representative Concentration Pathway scenario runs are mostly linear with respect to their (inadequate) TCS, we conclude that historical methods of regional projection are better suited given that they are directly calibrated on the real world (historical) climate.

I think its saying actual temperatures are better than simulations, but as reliable temperature's only been around for ,what 100-200 years and  TCS is only a short time span Indicator I'm not sure the relevance, they mention 2 different way they measure, theirs and the other, I cant work out the other or theirs Smiley))
I think Lee saw the 15% less and decided it was anti AWG but I'm not sure. Wink Wink
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Jovial Monk
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Reply #13 - May 25th, 2018 at 8:41am
 
Yes, I have seen that discussion. I LOVED Lees saying “cli si” only worked to confirm past papers then he posted that paper.  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Climate sensitivity is the amount the temperature would increase by if the CO2 concentration doubled. For anything as large as the atmosphere it is a difficult figure to calculate and observe: there are so many factors: a big volcano would depress temperatures a bit, sulphates being sent to the top of the atmosphere where they reflect away incoming sunlight, major ocean events like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and those for other oceans (including the Arctic Acean) and ENSO.

The paper seems a bit confused/confusing with “the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing.” They seem to be considering regional responses to radiative forcings.

Their estimate of the climate sensitivity could be right but it is only one paper. They used models too  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

It doesn’t make that much difference and as CO2 concentrations keep increasing the TCS figure will become clearer.

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Reply #14 - May 25th, 2018 at 8:58am
 
Ah, Booby and another one of his escape clauses:

Quote:
if it's hot it proves global warming &
if it's cold it proves global warming




Climate scientists do not mention purely local events as evidence of AGW.

Of course, he only considers LOCAL cooling because that is all Dubyne and the other snake oil sellers cover.

Lots of coverage of “The Beast from the East” oh, sure sign of an ice age! No coverage of the Arctic being warm (61 days above freezing to end Feb at one station, NH winter!) which would not fit with an ice age. Ice coverage in the Arctic last NH winter was LESS than in winter 2016  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin The snake oil sellers pushing a mini ice age always talk of Arctic ice increasing etc etc even when, like last NH winter when it is decreasing.

But Booby is not very bright or well educated and falls for crap like that. The global picture is NEVER discussed by the snake oil sellers.

Last NH summer was bloody hot. I went through any number of local papers from Western US to China and Japan—heatwaves everywhere. Not discussed by the snake oil sellers AT ALL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

And the snake oil sellers LIE in other ways:

1. Talk about a local cold event for weeks, making a cold snap seem to last a month.

2. Dubyne said that last years Australian wheat harvest had failed—talked of 70% losses—due to a late start and a cold winter. I checked up: the 2017 was 2% bigger than the 10 year average and the winter was WARM here last year. Booby just accepted the cold winter uncritically. The 2017 harvest may have looked small compared to the bumper 2016 harvest but that does not make it small in actual fact.

3. A fox fell through thin ice on the Danube and was “flash frozen.” When I pointed out the impossibility of that Booby said wtte “I am not responsible for every word Dubyne utters” but he had posted that video and accepted the “flash freezing.” Liquid nitrogen can flash freeze but water, being above 0°C cannot. Lees could not figure this out either. Seems a farmer fished the fox carcase out the river, froze it into a block of ice and put it on the bank to warn people the ice was thin.

4. It snowed in Morocco for the first time ever—ice age! Oops, a Moroccan was one of the people who watched that particular lying video and told Dubyne that Morocca had two ski resorts. So much for snow being unusual! Apparently snow used to fall down to sea level but had not for decades—guess it was warm enough to melt the snow that did not fall on the Atlas Mountains.

5. Galactic Cosmic rays are reaching the earth in record numbers and are causing clouds and thus cooling the earth. It is scientific fact that CRs do not cause water vapor to condense—just do a Google. AGW warms the seas and so they evaporate more water vapor. AGW has warmed the air and so it can hold 8% more moisture than it could in 1900. Warm moist air moves over land, cools—and the moisture precipitates as rain, hail or snow.

6. The ice age fraudsters like Dubyne claim record rain, hail or snow, particularly the latter, as, yup, a sign of the ice age. It is much more a sign of AGW of course. Even record snow falls (you MUST always check when one of the snake oil sellers claims something is a record: even if it is a record it might be like a 2 or 5 year record, not really what you think when reading of “record” this or that.

7. Hail is grequently pointed to as a sign of the ice age. Poppycock! Look up hail in wiki or wherever. Hail is formed way high up in the atmosphere, sent there by strong updrafts in the middle of thunderstorms. It is not formed on the surface or lower atmosphere! With stronger thunderstorms from surfaces warmed by AGW, with more moisture in the air due to AGW is it surprising we get hail and bigger hail? I often point to the hail storm on the day my father died—late January! Water does not freeze naturally at the surface in the middle of an Adelaide summer! It froze WAY up in the atmosphere! So more and bigger hail is a sign not of an ice age but of AGW!  Smiley

8. The liars claim volcanoes erupting or earthquakes happening as a sign of a grand solar minumum. My first post in this thread demolished that rubbish.

And so on. Every cool event is a sign of the ice age, every hot event is ignored.

Consider point 2. Dubyne is ALWAYS talking of crops failing even when, like the Australian 2017 wheat harvest it was a bit better than average. It is a constant refrain in his videos, in his tweets and doubtless his facebook page. Why? Is the “survival food” he advertises on his lying YouTubes his food? Or is it to make the non–existent ice age more real? I think it is directly related to money he can make—that is why he is lying about an ice age in the first place! So the survival food business is either his or he has a stake in it.
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« Last Edit: May 25th, 2018 at 9:30am by Jovial Monk »  

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