Australian Politics Forum - New paper on Climate Models

lee

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #45 - May 24^th, 2018 at 6:22pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 5:52pm:

I have Lee that’s why I was asking you what u thought it all meant,

very good.

It is behind a paywall and I can't get access.

Seeing as you have access; perhaps you can tell us.

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 5:52pm:

he rest is a easy summary and I thought since you posted it, u would know what the variation was

So tell us. Wink

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #46 - May 25^th, 2018 at 7:41am

lee wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 6:22pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 5:52pm:

I have Lee that’s why I was asking you what u thought it all meant,

very good.

It is behind a paywall and I can't get access.

Seeing as you have access; perhaps you can tell us.

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 5:52pm:

he rest is a easy summary and I thought since you posted it, u would know what the variation was

So tell us. Wink

Plain Language Summary
In this paper, we estimate the transient climate sensitivity, that is, the expected short‐term increase in temperature for a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, for historical regional series of temperature. We compare our results with historical simulations made using global climate models and find that there are significant regional discrepancies between the two. We argue that historical methods can be more reliable, especially for the more policy‐relevant short‐term projections, given that the discrepancies of the global climate models directly bias their projections.

that's the other bit of it ,no pay wall, so now please tell us what this confusing thing u posted actually means,
what did they use to get their results ?
or did u just see 15% less and decided it was anti AGW ? Wink

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lee

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #47 - May 25^th, 2018 at 12:26pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 7:41am:

or did u just see 15% less and decided it was anti AGW ?

Nope. I leave that to you.

You do understand the difference between a Summary and the actual paper?

We have no idea what level of confidence. Al we know is waht they wrote in that Summary.

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 7:41am:

We argue that historical methods can be more reliable

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 7:41am:

given that the discrepancies of the global climate models directly bias their projections.

You do understand BIAS?

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Grendel

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #48 - May 25^th, 2018 at 5:08pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 11:53am:

Grendel wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 9:18am:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 23^rd, 2018 at 3:24pm:

Grendel wrote on May 23^rd, 2018 at 3:09pm:

Where did I accuse you personally of posting any images let alone one of a power station Dippy.
You need to stop lying about what I say and think eh.

That only shows how desperate you are to be right when clearly you are wrong. Otherwise there is no need to lie and you've done that to me several times now.

I suggest you stop it and stop wasting my time correcting your lies. Cheesy

Grendel wrote on May 22^nd, 2018 at 9:30am:

You saying water vapour is not a product of coal fired power stations? Cheesy

You lot use photos of it often enough claiming its is pollution from them. Cheesy

ohh this isn't you ????? Cheesy

ahhh r u really going to say u said lot instead of my name...

its ok u lot just need to read what is said and get over that feeling everyone is lying to you.....

Yes glad you finally noticed and admitted the truth YOU LOT refers to a group not you personally Cheesy

Still cant face the truth eh? Roll Eyes

Keep digging that hole Dippy. Wink

wow I'm back in third grade all the sudden Tongue

so who else where u talking too ? Wink

oh dear... here we go again.
I'd have to go back further than 3rd grade for you.... and talk really slow or type really big.

I w a s r e f e r r i n g t o a g r o u p...

It aint rocket science Dippy Cheesy

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #49 - May 25^th, 2018 at 5:15pm

lee wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 12:26pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 7:41am:

or did u just see 15% less and decided it was anti AGW ?

Nope. I leave that to you.

You do understand the difference between a Summary and the actual paper?

We have no idea what level of confidence. Al we know is waht they wrote in that Summary.

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 7:41am:

We argue that historical methods can be more reliable

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 7:41am:

given that the discrepancies of the global climate models directly bias their projections.

You do understand BIAS?

Ha Ha Bias, well what exactly is it about ?
15% less carbon or 15% less temp raise, 15% accuracy, why post something u don't even know what it is ?
Or if u do please be my guest let us know . Wink

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #50 - May 25^th, 2018 at 5:17pm

Grendel wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 5:08pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 11:53am:

Grendel wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 9:18am:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 23^rd, 2018 at 3:24pm:

Grendel wrote on May 23^rd, 2018 at 3:09pm:

Where did I accuse you personally of posting any images let alone one of a power station Dippy.
You need to stop lying about what I say and think eh.

That only shows how desperate you are to be right when clearly you are wrong. Otherwise there is no need to lie and you've done that to me several times now.

I suggest you stop it and stop wasting my time correcting your lies. Cheesy

Grendel wrote on May 22^nd, 2018 at 9:30am:

You saying water vapour is not a product of coal fired power stations? Cheesy

You lot use photos of it often enough claiming its is pollution from them. Cheesy

ohh this isn't you ????? Cheesy

ahhh r u really going to say u said lot instead of my name...

its ok u lot just need to read what is said and get over that feeling everyone is lying to you.....

Yes glad you finally noticed and admitted the truth YOU LOT refers to a group not you personally Cheesy

Still cant face the truth eh? Roll Eyes

Keep digging that hole Dippy. Wink

wow I'm back in third grade all the sudden Tongue

so who else where u talking too ? Wink

oh dear... here we go again.
I'd have to go back further than 3rd grade for you.... and talk really slow or type really big.

I w a s r e f e r r i n g t o a g r o u p...

It aint rocket science Dippy Cheesy

what group is that ?
while replying to my post...... Ok so it wasn't directed at me ?
ohh why did u write it, just a random thought ? Cheesy

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lee

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #51 - May 25^th, 2018 at 5:31pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 5:15pm:

Ha Ha Bias, well what exactly is it about ?
15% less carbon or 15% less temp raise, 15% accuracy, why post something u don't even know what it is ?
Or if u do please be my guest let us know .

If you have access as you intimated you should be full bottle by now.

However it is an interesting paper; if only because Lovejoy is considered to be somewhat of an alarmist.

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #52 - May 26^th, 2018 at 7:18am

lee wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 5:31pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 5:15pm:

Ha Ha Bias, well what exactly is it about ?
15% less carbon or 15% less temp raise, 15% accuracy, why post something u don't even know what it is ?
Or if u do please be my guest let us know .

If you have access as you intimated you should be full bottle by now.

However it is an interesting paper; if only because Lovejoy is considered to be somewhat of an alarmist.

what access ? you mean the other half that I pasted up here before that u didn't, still no idea what this article means though do u ?
Why did u post this up if u have no idea what it means,
then u had a little hissy fit because u blamed me for changing subject even stalked me about it in another board
Now it turns out u don't even know what it is.
The only thread I've seen u start and u don't know what its saying Cheesy

just keep to playing devil's advocate Lee Wink

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lee

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #53 - May 26^th, 2018 at 11:43am

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 26^th, 2018 at 7:18am:

what access ?

The access to the complete paper. Sorry, I thought you understood that.

All that is listed is the Abstract and a plain language summary. The full paper is behind a paywall. You need to login to see it.

So what is an Abstract?

"An abstract is a brief summary of the most important points in a scientific paper. Abstracts enable professionals to stay current with the huge volume of scientific literature. Students have misconceptions about the nature of abstracts that may be described as the “table of contents” or “introduction” syndromes. There are several ways to tell if you’ve written an abstract or not."

http://employees.oneonta.edu/ebertjr/what_is_an_abstract.htm

So as the authors did not include the any detail of their methodology; they can't have considered it too important.

But since you are so interested I have taken the liberty of getting the corresponding authors details so you can ask him.

raphael.hebert@mail.mcgill.ca

Do keep us informed on how you get on.

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #54 - May 28^th, 2018 at 8:11am

lee wrote on May 26^th, 2018 at 11:43am:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 26^th, 2018 at 7:18am:

what access ?

The access to the complete paper. Sorry, I thought you understood that.

All that is listed is the Abstract and a plain language summary. The full paper is behind a paywall. You need to login to see it.

So what is an Abstract?

"An abstract is a brief summary of the most important points in a scientific paper. Abstracts enable professionals to stay current with the huge volume of scientific literature. Students have misconceptions about the nature of abstracts that may be described as the “table of contents” or “introduction” syndromes. There are several ways to tell if you’ve written an abstract or not."

http://employees.oneonta.edu/ebertjr/what_is_an_abstract.htm

So as the authors did not include the any detail of their methodology; they can't have considered it too important.

But since you are so interested I have taken the liberty of getting the corresponding authors details so you can ask him.

raphael.hebert@mail.mcgill.ca

Do keep us informed on how you get on.

Your the one that made this thread Lee , pasted the article and Highlighted 15% wrong. If u have no idea what it means why did u post it ? What is 15% about?
I don't really care what its about, But then I didn't make a new tread about it, u did.
To make things worse u had a hissy fit we changed the subject and u don't even know what the subject is.
Now I've asked a question about it.... I'm still waiting on a answer ?
Maybe just keep quoting one line from a post and distorting it... that's what your best at Lee Wink

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lee

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #55 - May 28^th, 2018 at 11:32am

quote author=DonDeeHippy link=1526530211/54#54 date=1527459066]Your the one that made this thread Lee , pasted the article and Highlighted 15% wrong. If u have no idea what it means why did u post it ? What is 15% about? [/quote]

So you can't read? can't comprehend?

"We (the authors) find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high"

So they find the Transient Climate Sensitivity is too high. That means that the Global Climate Models overestimate AGW/Climate Change. AKA "run too hot".

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 28^th, 2018 at 8:11am:

To make things worse u had a hissy fit we changed the subject and u don't even know what the subject is.

The point I highlighted was that the GCM's run too hot. Jeez are you really that challenged.

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 28^th, 2018 at 8:11am:

Maybe just keep quoting one line from a post and distorting it... that's what your best at Lee Wink

Then perhaps you can "undistort' it it and give us your exceptionally clear, concise view. You are free to debunk what I posted. But that would mean you are debunking climate scientists. Wink

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #56 - May 28^th, 2018 at 3:22pm

lee wrote on May 28^th, 2018 at 11:32am:

quote author=DonDeeHippy link=1526530211/54#54 date=1527459066]Your the one that made this thread Lee , pasted the article and Highlighted 15% wrong. If u have no idea what it means why did u post it ? What is 15% about?

So you can't read? can't comprehend?

"We (the authors) find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high"

So they find the Transient Climate Sensitivity is too high. That means that the Global Climate Models overestimate AGW/Climate Change. AKA "run too hot".

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 28^th, 2018 at 8:11am:

To make things worse u had a hissy fit we changed the subject and u don't even know what the subject is.

The point I highlighted was that the GCM's run too hot. Jeez are you really that challenged.

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 28^th, 2018 at 8:11am:

Maybe just keep quoting one line from a post and distorting it... that's what your best at Lee Wink

Then perhaps you can "undistort' it it and give us your exceptionally clear, concise view. You are free to debunk what I posted. But that would mean you are debunking climate scientists. Wink

[/quote]

But in the case of the temperature record, it actually means only 135 years. Accurate, systematic, global thermometer measurements of surface temperatures go back only to 1880
so with what 135years of real world data they have determined that a simulation of the same time span to double the CO2 is 15% off ? sounds silly to me no wonder they want u to pay to read the rest of the dribble. Wink

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Grendel

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Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #57 - May 28^th, 2018 at 5:14pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 5:17pm:

Grendel wrote on May 25^th, 2018 at 5:08pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 11:53am:

Grendel wrote on May 24^th, 2018 at 9:18am:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 23^rd, 2018 at 3:24pm:

Grendel wrote on May 23^rd, 2018 at 3:09pm:

Where did I accuse you personally of posting any images let alone one of a power station Dippy.
You need to stop lying about what I say and think eh.

That only shows how desperate you are to be right when clearly you are wrong. Otherwise there is no need to lie and you've done that to me several times now.

I suggest you stop it and stop wasting my time correcting your lies. Cheesy

Grendel wrote on May 22^nd, 2018 at 9:30am:

You saying water vapour is not a product of coal fired power stations? Cheesy

You lot use photos of it often enough claiming its is pollution from them. Cheesy

ohh this isn't you ????? Cheesy

ahhh r u really going to say u said lot instead of my name...

its ok u lot just need to read what is said and get over that feeling everyone is lying to you.....

Yes glad you finally noticed and admitted the truth YOU LOT refers to a group not you personally Cheesy

Still cant face the truth eh? Roll Eyes

Keep digging that hole Dippy. Wink

wow I'm back in third grade all the sudden Tongue

so who else where u talking too ? Wink

oh dear... here we go again.
I'd have to go back further than 3rd grade for you.... and talk really slow or type really big.

I w a s r e f e r r i n g t o a g r o u p...

It aint rocket science Dippy Cheesy

what group is that ?
while replying to my post...... Ok so it wasn't directed at me ?
ohh why did u write it, just a random thought ? Cheesy

Stop wasting MY time whilst making an ass of yourself... Cheesy

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