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Why David DuByne is so very wrong (Read 4857 times)
The_Barnacle
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Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Apr 22nd, 2018 at 11:31am
 
The media screwed up again.

First, the facts: global temperatures are rising, and research shows that while the Sun may soon slow that rise, climate change remains a reality — and a threat. But you wouldn’t learn that by reading recent news coverage.

Of course, climate deniers have jumped on this story:

Yes, during the Maunder Minimum, Earth got colder. England’s River Thames froze over. Arctic sea ice crawled south. But this mini ice age had many causes: given where other climate variables stood, a drop in solar activity chilled parts of the world.

Those other variables (volcanic eruptions, carbon emissions, etc.) matter. If they change, then falling solar activity — even a decrease on par with the Maunder Minimum — won’t necessarily result in another mini ice age.

Nope. It won’t happen. A big solar minimum would pull temps down by around 0.13°C from where they’d otherwise be, the Nature Communications study explains. That’s tiny compared to the expected 2°C to 6°C global temperature rise — a rise caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide.

The study states that “this offsets or delays the global warming trend by ~2 years.” A mere two years. No ice age: global warming will briefly, barely stumble — then charge ahead again.

https://medium.com/@aurevig/media-failure-bad-journalism-behind-the-mini-ice-age...
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The_Barnacle
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #1 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 11:35am
 
UK tabloids, conservative media, and others are (mis)reporting that the Earth will enter a “mini ice age” in the 2030s. In fact, not only is the story wrong, the reverse is actually true.

A recent study concluded that “any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming.”

That’s true even for one as big as the Maunder Minimum, which was linked to the so-called Little Ice Age.

The “Little Ice Age” is a term used to cover what appears to have been two or three periods of modest cooling in the northern hemisphere between 1550 and 1850.

The latest research finds that what short-term cooling there was during the Little Ice Age was mostly due to volcanoes, not the solar minimum. As “Scientific American” explained in its 2012 piece on the LIA, “New simulations show that several large, closely spaced eruptions (and not decreased solar radiation) could have cooled the Northern Hemisphere enough to spark sea-ice growth and a subsequent feedback loop.” The period associated with the LIA “coincide with two of the most volcanically active half centuries in the past millennium, according to the researchers.”

The cooling effect from the drop in solar activity during even a Maunder Minimum is quite modest.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/the-truth-about-som...
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The_Barnacle
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #2 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 11:37am
 
And then you have David DuByne making local weather observations and trying to tie them into a change in global climate.

Complete unscientific nonsense
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #3 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 11:41am
 
.
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Globe is warming at 0.2°C per decade.

Ice is melting and permafrost is thawing.

Beware of conmen preying on fears of AGW.
WWW  
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The_Barnacle
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #4 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 11:48am
 


Thats assuming that the little ice age was global, which it wasn't

The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period.[1] Although it was not a true ice age, the term was introduced into scientific literature by François E. Matthes in 1939.[2] It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries,[3][4][5] but some experts prefer an alternative timespan from about 1300[6] to about 1850.[7][8][9] Climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of the period, which varied according to local conditions.

The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, all separated by intervals of slight warming.[5] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report considered the timing and areas affected by the Little Ice Age suggested largely-independent regional climate changes rather than a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. At most, there was modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during the period.[10]

Several causes have been proposed: cyclical lows in solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, variations in Earth's orbit and axial tilt (orbital forcing), inherent variability in global climate, and decreases in the human population.

the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries.... [Viewed] hemispherically, the "Little Ice Age" can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1°C relative to late twentieth century levels

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
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lee
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #5 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 12:48pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Apr 22nd, 2018 at 11:48am:
Thats assuming that the little ice age was global, which it wasn't



What arrant nonsense.

Try googling

LIA - Peru

LIA - New Zealand

LIA - Tasmania

LIA - Antarctica

Heightened volcanic activity -

"The study, led by the University of Colorado Boulder with co-authors at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other organizations, suggests that an unusual, 50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions triggered the [highlight]Little Ice Age between 1275 and 1300 A.D[/highlight]. "

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm

"Little Ice Age (LIA), climate interval that occurred from the early 14th century through the mid-19th century, when mountain glaciers expanded at several locations, including the European Alps, New Zealand, Alaska, and the southern Andes, and mean annual temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere declined by 0.6 °C (1.1 °F) relative to the average temperature between 1000 and 2000 ce"

https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age#ref299981

Now if only they could explain the LIA continuing for about another 650 years in their paper.

Aerosols from Pinataubo only lasted months in the atmosphere. 700 years is a big stretch. Wink

Strange that you missed the LIA in the Southern hemisphere.

"Southern Hemisphere
Scientific works point out cold spells and climate changes in areas of the Southern Hemisphere and their correlation to the Little Ice Age."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
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« Last Edit: Apr 22nd, 2018 at 12:59pm by lee »  
 
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The_Barnacle
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #6 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 1:24pm
 
You are such a tiresome Persistent Debate Troll lee

Quote:
It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries, but some experts prefer an alternative timespan from about 1300[6] to about 1850. Climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of the period, which varied according to local conditions.

Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world experienced heightened volcanic activity

In contrast, a climate reconstruction based on glacial length[15][16] shows no great variation from 1600 to 1850 but strong retreat thereafter.


So in other words the cool spells in the south didn't correlate with the cool spells in the north, which is what you would expect if it was driven by decreases in solar radiation.

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lee
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #7 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 1:46pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Apr 22nd, 2018 at 1:24pm:
You are such a tiresome Persistent Debate Troll lee

Quote:
It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries, but some experts prefer an alternative timespan from about 1300[6] to about 1850. Climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of the period, which varied according to local conditions.

Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world experienced heightened volcanic activity

In contrast, a climate reconstruction based on glacial length[15][16] shows no great variation from 1600 to 1850 but strong retreat thereafter.


So in other words the cool spells in the south didn't correlate with the cool spells in the north, which is what you would expect if it was driven by decreases in solar radiation.



So on the one hand you use a metric of worldwide heightened volcanic activity, which apparently only affected the NH,  and on the other that they didn't tightly correlate, because they varied because of local conditions? Grin Grin Grin Grin

Last time I looked 1850 was in the 19th century. So what exactly is your point.


You have added nothing that points to the LIA being NH only.
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Bobby.
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #8 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 3:19pm
 
What about galactic cosmic rays?
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The Mechanic
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #9 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 9:41pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Apr 22nd, 2018 at 3:19pm:
What about galactic cosmic rays?


he hasn't got a clue...

but lets face it bobby...

he's now admitting that we've been right for the last couple of years...

that the Earth is going to cool.... not warm...

nice one Barney..

your eyes are slowly starting to open..

but I agree with you..

in the fact we need to live a cleaner way of life... bobby would agree as well.. im sure..
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Bobby.
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #10 - Apr 22nd, 2018 at 9:53pm
 
The Mechanic wrote on Apr 22nd, 2018 at 9:41pm:
Bobby. wrote on Apr 22nd, 2018 at 3:19pm:
What about galactic cosmic rays?


he hasn't got a clue...

but lets face it bobby...

he's now admitting that we've been right for the last couple of years...

that the Earth is going to cool.... not warm...

nice one Barney..

your eyes are slowly starting to open..

but I agree with you..

in the fact we need to live a cleaner way of life... bobby would agree as well.. im sure..



Yep - Barny thinks he can undo 332 pages of evidence
with a quote from one website.
He's got to be joking.
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Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
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Bobby.
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #11 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 6:43am
 
Monk has lied on the other forum.
Galactic cosmic rays cause clouds.







Grand Solar Minimum Primer: Svensmark-The Cloud Mystery (Klimamysteriet) #6/10




Published on Jul 14, 2017

In part #6/10 of the Grand Solar Minimum Primer we focus on Galactic Cosmic Rays and their influence on global climate.
Recent studies and discoveries at CERN have proven that galactic cosmic rays cause cloud nucleation. Therefore galactic cosmic ray intensity can be correlated to global climate change. This is due to the albedo effect and increasing cloud nucleation resulting in global cooling. I have provided many provocative links to help you get started on your journey to understand the truth about climate change and eliminate the dogma.

The Cloud Mystery is a documentary by Danish director Lars Oxfeldt Mortensen. It explores a controversial (until now) theory by Danish scientist Henrik Svensmark on how galactic cosmic rays and solar activity may affect cloud cover, and how this might influence global warming.
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Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #12 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 11:36am
 
All this nonsense disproved here.

I can’t post this stuff here because Booby will censor it to fit in with his mystic belief that we are in an ice age.
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Globe is warming at 0.2°C per decade.

Ice is melting and permafrost is thawing.

Beware of conmen preying on fears of AGW.
WWW  
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Bobby.
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #13 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 5:00pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 11:36am:
All this nonsense disproved here.

I can’t post this stuff here because Bobby will censor it to fit in with his mystic belief that we are in an ice age.



You can post whatever you like as long as it's within the rules.
Calling me "Booby" won't get you far.
Remember this sub forum is an island in a sea of contempt.
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Re: Why David DuByne is so very wrong
Reply #14 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 9:48am
 
STOP POSTING FACTS LEE...  YOU ARE UPSETTING BARNACLE.

I like this...  from Barnacle...
Quote:
First, the facts: global temperatures are rising, and
research shows that while the Sun may soon slow that rise,
climate change remains a reality — and a threat. But you wouldn’t learn that by reading recent news coverage.


Wow, what an admission....  so it's the SUN not CO2 that controls temperature here.  Who'd a thunk it eh? Roll Eyes
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