On the South Australian redistribution, 11 South Australian seats will soon be reduced to 10. The current makeup of the SA seats are 6 ALP, 4 Liberal, 1 NXT.

All of the SA seats are under the SA quota. The three seats that are most under the quota are all Liberal seats (Grey, Sturt and Barker). The three seats that are closest to the quota are all Labor seats (Port Adelaide, Wakefield, Hindmarsh). This suggests the most likely outcome of a redistribution would see the Liberals and NXT losing a notional seat between them (the NXT seat is a Liberal-leaning seat and is well under quota).

It is possible that the notional seat distribution between the major parties for the next election would be 73-73 with 5 crossbenchers.

The ABC has posted analysis that draws similar conclusions to those I posted earlier from Pollbludger and The Tallyroom.

Labor set to benefit from proposed changes to federal electoral boundaries

Antony Green has said this:
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This is also worth mentioning:
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longweekend58 wrote on Apr 6^th, 2018 at 7:26pm:

No. You really should learn how redistributions work.

The population of the ACT has grown to the point where a third seat is justified. The ACT is safe Labor territory.

Several outer suburban Labor seats in Victoria are over quota due to population growth while Liberal seats tend to be under quota.

Top 8
McEwen +31.0%
Lalor +22.5%
Holt +13.8%
Gorton +13.5%
McMillan +13.0%
Flinders +11.7%
Wills +10.6%
Melbourne +9.9%

Bottom 8
Bruce -10.8%
Aston -10.1%
Chisholm -8.6%
Menzies -7.6%
Wannon -6.6%
Mallee -6.6%
Deakin -6.4%
Hotham -6.0%

The top two seats in Victoria have an extra half a quota between them. That's MASSIVE.

The seven seats that are most over quota are outer suburban seats and most of them are Labor-voting areas. The Liberal exceptions are adjacent outer seats to the south-east on the Bass strait coast.

The Victorian seats are clearly malapportioned in favour of the Coalition. (You would probably call it a "gerrymander" though it technically isn't one). This is why Labor are gaining three notional seats in Victoria and the Liberals are losing two. (Although the renamed Corangamite would become a notional Labor seat, the notional margin would be a wafer-thin 0.1%).

The overall picture is to take a malapportionment that clearly favours the Liberals and rebalancing it back to the centre.

The bad news for the Liberals is that the current distribution in South Australia is also slanted towards the Liberals and the SA redistribution where one seat is to be abolished may see the loss of another Liberal seat.

The news in Queensland is better for the Coalition, where the quotas are more evenly distributed among the major parties. Queensland's boundary changes are relatively mild tweaking by comparison (all Queensland seats are within 7% of quota) and it's likely that no notional seats will change hands.

Its time wrote on Apr 6^th, 2018 at 8:42pm:

He seems to be very ... selective ... with his views of malapportionment depending on which party is favoured. One that favoured state Labor in South Australia is a crime against democracy and has to be complained about endlessly. A similar Federal malapportionment that favours the Liberals is apparently okay (at least, he has made no complaints) and removing this somehow has nefarious motives.

Yes, the Coalition are doomed to defeat at the next Federal election. Even Dutton has admitted it. Introducing fairer division boundaries will only hasten their demise. It's going to be hard for the Coaltiion to win an election when they are as popular as dog turds and they need to gain three notional seats at the next election just to hold on to power.

This is a bit of bad news for team libtard 

South Australian draft boundaries have been released.

It proposes to abolish the safe Labor seat of Port Adelaide. It will have the effect of changing a few marginal Labor seats into safe seats (Adelaide, Hindmarsh Spence/Wakefield), and most seats will have a notional swing to Labor (Kingston being the exception).

Although the Liberals do not lose a seat, the notional swing to Labor could make it harder for the Liberals to retain their seats.

Could this good news for the Liberals be possibly linked to Vanstone's sister-in-law heading up the SAEC?

Valkie wrote on Apr 13^th, 2018 at 6:06pm:

I wish we could vote the worst of them off the island, Survivor-style.

We could introduce shoe throwing........