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« Created by: Aussie on: Apr 1st, 2018 at 7:33pm »

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Relationship to the truth (Read 73587 times)
lee
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #375 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:07pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:04pm:
You need to dispel the fear of AGW even with no relevant information, no paper from WattsUp or whatever denier site to hand.



? Why would you want a paper from a "denier" site? Do they really deny climate changes?

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:04pm:
The slowing of the AMOC is real. The use of models is not the same as saying the conclusions are wrong, with a matter as vast and complicated as weather and climate the use of models is inevitable.



But when the models are refuted by the observations - the models are junk. They need a better model that agrees with the observations.

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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #376 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:09pm
 
Why do you post here, Lees? You are dissembling.
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lee
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #377 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:12pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:09pm:
Why do you post here, Lees? You are dissembling.



Oh, Dear. Poor JM. Can't handle the truth.

You misstate things. Tell us about the volcanoes that are apparently NOT under the Arctic, according to you.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #378 - Apr 23rd, 2018 at 10:16pm
 
Why do you post here?
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #379 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:30am
 
And roach posts to show how stupid he is.

According to roach Barnacle admits “. . . it's the SUN not CO2 that controls temperature here.  Who'd a thunk it eh? ”

A 0.13°C cooling from a drop in TSI due to a grand solar minimum, recovered in TWO years by AGW.

Yeah, BIG influence the sun, not.

The figure I have seen for cooling from a sizable GSM is 0.3, not a big difference in the scale of a 1.2°C temperature increase since 1880. Maybe 5 years for AGW to resume warming the world.

Oh yeah, roach, how could you miss  Barnacle saying AGW would increase temperatures more than the 0.13°C a GSM would bring?

Barnacle was right about the LIA too, like 0.5°C cooler than early 1900s temperatures so not a real ice age. Researches can’t agree on the geographical boundaries of the LIA or the period in which it happened. To quote Lees “Oh, scary.”

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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #380 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:36am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:30am:
Barnacle was right about the LIA too, like 0.5°C cooler than early 1900s temperatures so not a real ice age



Wow. Who said it was? Grin Grin Grin Grin

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:30am:
Researches can’t agree on the geographical boundaries of the LIA or the period in which it happened.



But Barney says "it was the volcanoes worldwide between 1300 and 1850." And apparently ONLY in the Northern hemisphere. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:30am:
To quote Lees “Oh, scary.”



Yeah. Scary Not. I am sorry you don't understand sarcasm.

BTW - It appears you can't even get that quote right. Wink
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #381 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:47am
 
Oh, you were trying sarcasm? Try harder next time  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #382 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:48am
 
If the volcanoes were world wide how can they only be in one hemisphere?

Babbling again Lees!
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #383 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:57am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:48am:
If the volcanoes were world wide how can they only be in one hemisphere?

Babbling again Lees!


Ask Barney; he's the one said it. Wink


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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #384 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:58am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2018 at 10:47am:
Oh, you were trying sarcasm? Try harder next time  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin



On you it is obviously wasted.

BTW- it appears you couldn't even get that quote about "Oh scary" right. Wink
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #385 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 11:16am
 
The Gulf Stream, or the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation is slowing down:

Quote:
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0006-5

This slowing down has consequences: a more rapid sea level rise in the Atlantic opposite the East coast of the US, significant warming of the Gulf Stream region of the North Atlantic. For the UK and West Europe it will make summers hotter and winters a bit cooler:

Quote:
Movement of warm Equatorial waters northward and their subsequent overturning and sinking in the North Atlantic drives a number of key weather and climate features. The first is that it tends to keep Europe warm during winter and to moderate European temperatures during summer. The second impact is that a fast moving current off the U.S. East Coast pulls water away from the shore keeping sea levels lower. The third is that warm water in the North Atlantic during winter time tends to keep the regional jet stream relatively flat. And the fourth is that a more rapid circulation keeps the ocean more highly oxygenated — allowing it to support more life.

A slowing down of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic therefore means that Europe will tend to cool during winter even as it heats up during summer. Sea level rise will accelerate faster for the U.S. East Coast relative to the rest of the world due to a slowing Gulf Stream combined with the effects of melting land glaciers and thermal ocean expansion. The North Atlantic jet stream will tend to become wavier — with deep troughs tending to form over Eastern North America and through parts of Europe. These trough zones will tend to generate far more intense fall and winter weather. Finally, a slowing ocean circulation will tend to increase the number of low-oxygen dead zones.


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/04/23/why-a-15-percent-slow-down-in-north-atlan...

The obvious fingerprint of a slowing AMOC:
...
Quote:
(Cool pool formation near Greenland juxtaposed by a warming and slowing of the Gulf Stream as it is forced southward is an early indication of ocean circulation slow-down. During recent years, this phenomena — which is related to larger human-forced climate change — has become a prevalent feature of North Atlantic Ocean climate and weather patterns. An indicator that climate change and ocean system changes for this region are already under way. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)


Increasing amounts of freshwater from the melting of Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet is one factor slowing the Gulf Stream:

Quote:
With rates of Greenland melt increasing, there is a risk that the historic observed North Atlantic circulation weakening will increase further and more radically — producing still more profound results than we see today. In the event of large melt outflows coming from Greenland during abnormally warm summers or due to warming deep water melting glaciers from below — a possibility that rises with each 0.1 C of global temperature increase — we could see a very rapid weakening of ocean circulation above and beyond that which has already been recorded.


The reason Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets increase the amount of meltwater and calved icebergs reaching the sea is that many of the big glaciers in those places are in valleys that get deeper as you go further inland, i.e. the ice faces exposed to warm currents increase in size as the glaciers retreat inland.

So if AGW continues the slowdown of the AMOC is going to slow down more and more.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #386 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 3:35pm
 
Look at this image again:

...

It is easy to see why TC Ophelia could travel so far north and east:
Quote:
Hurricane Ophelia (known as Storm Ophelia in Ireland and the United Kingdom while extratropical) was regarded as the worst storm to affect Ireland in 50 years, and was also the easternmost Atlantic major hurricane[nb 1] on record. The tenth and final consecutive hurricane and the sixth major hurricane of the very active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season


(wiki)

That pool of cold water originating in the Arctic and Greenland sitting on top of the heavier  salt water is slowing the Gulf Stream and pushing it southward. The warm water pushed southwards could feed Ophelia warmth and moisture.

If the slowing continues the UK can look forward to more hurricanes.
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #387 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 3:41pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2018 at 11:16am:
Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project.


You can calibrate models. No CLIMATE model has been verified let alone calibrated. So to somehow calibrate the output of an "ensemble of models" is the height of lunacy.

...
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #388 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 3:44pm
 
Yet the AMOC is slowing. Funny, eh?
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Re: Relationship to the truth
Reply #389 - Apr 24th, 2018 at 3:59pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2018 at 3:44pm:
Yet the AMOC is slowing



Only according to the models. NASA says otherwise.

"New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps regulate climate around the North Atlantic, show no significant slowing over the past 15 years. The data suggest the circulation may have even sped up slightly in the recent past. "

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.html

From the paper -
"Direct continuous measurements of the AMOC have only been available for a little over a decade and are therefore probably dominated by natural variability. The longer-term evolution of the AMOC needs to be reconstructed from indirect indicators. "


And of course these "indirect" indicators provide a truer reflection than anything else. No error bars. no nothin'. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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