Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Page Index Toggle Pages: 1
Send Topic Print
Picking the top (Read 1731 times)
bogarde73
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Anti-Global & Contra Mundum

Posts: 18443
Gender: male
Picking the top
Mar 13th, 2018 at 7:32am
 
Everybody knows that this can't last. That a crash is coming. It always does, it always has.
But nobody knows when. It might be next week, it might be next year.
Of course some people by accident make a correct prediction and for the rest of time they are famous as the people who predicted 1987 or 2000 or 2008. But they just got lucky because you can't predict irrational behaviour, which is what the stock market is.

There's an interesting little piece by Andy Kessler in zero hedge today in which he discusses being contrarian. It's funny too because it brings in the thoughts of George Costanza.
But contrarianism is not IMO a workable proposition for the major market rout. It's great for when everything drops 20-30% and nobody is buying such as 2008 and you are prepared to wait for the cycle to turn. But what about 30-40-50% and it might take 6-8 years to turn?

The only thing I would say now is it's not the time to buy to hold, especially anything that's anywhere more than a smidgen above its 52 week low. A lot of experienced people have been saying that lately.
But they could be wrong. The fact is nobody knows more than that the wheel goes round.

One thing I do believe though. There is no longer the capacity for a 2008 style bailout.
That's scary.
Back to top
 

Know the enemies of a civil society by their public behaviour, by their fraudulent claim to be liberal-progressive, by their propensity to lie and, above all, by their attachment to authoritarianism.
 
IP Logged
 
miketrees
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 6488
Gender: male
Re: Picking the top
Reply #1 - Mar 13th, 2018 at 7:36am
 


So, cash and defensive stocks, but we just don't know when to buy them.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
The_Barnacle
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 6205
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Picking the top
Reply #2 - Mar 14th, 2018 at 9:22pm
 
bogarde73 wrote on Mar 13th, 2018 at 7:32am:
Everybody knows that this can't last. That a crash is coming. It always does, it always has.


I wouldn't put too much faith in zero hedge. They has been predicting a crash for years, probably decades.

There won't be a crash in the short term or probably even in the medium term. The fundamentals are sound and thee market (especially the Australian market) isn't overpriced.
Back to top
 

The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
IP Logged
 
perceptions_now
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth  WA
Gender: male
Re: Picking the top
Reply #3 - Mar 25th, 2018 at 11:38am
 
bogarde73 wrote on Mar 13th, 2018 at 7:32am:
Everybody knows that this can't last. That a crash is coming. It always does, it always has.
But nobody knows when. It might be next week, it might be next year.
Of course some people by accident make a correct prediction and for the rest of time they are famous as the people who predicted 1987 or 2000 or 2008. But they just got lucky because you can't predict irrational behaviour, which is what the stock market is.

There's an interesting little piece by Andy Kessler in zero hedge today in which he discusses being contrarian. It's funny too because it brings in the thoughts of George Costanza.
But contrarianism is not IMO a workable proposition for the major market rout. It's great for when everything drops 20-30% and nobody is buying such as 2008 and you are prepared to wait for the cycle to turn. But what about 30-40-50% and it might take 6-8 years to turn?

The only thing I would say now is it's not the time to buy to hold, especially anything that's anywhere more than a smidgen above its 52 week low. A lot of experienced people have been saying that lately.
But they could be wrong. The fact is nobody knows more than that the wheel goes round.

One thing I do believe though. There is no longer the capacity for a 2008 style bailout.
That's scary.


Agreed!
The basics simply aren't there, all the capacity was used in TRYING TO RECOVER, which never really happened, never was going  to AND THOSE IN CHARGE KNEW OR SHOULD HAVE KNOWN WHAT WAS COMING!!
Just as Donald Trump & "the others KNOW OR SHOULD KNOW NOW that the old remedies will not work now, as the basics have changed!!!

Oh & I think it MAY be a bit late, to pick the top?

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Page Index Toggle Pages: 1
Send Topic Print