Frost fairs were once held on the River Thames. Pic: Museum of London

A mini ice age that would freeze major rivers could hit Britain in less than two decades, according to research from universities in the UK and Russia.

A mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests temperatures could start dropping here from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the River Thames by 2030.

A team led by maths professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University built on work from Moscow to predict the movements of two magnetic waves produced by the Sun.



A mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests temperatures in Britain could start dropping from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the Thames by 2030.

Experts measured the Sun's magnetic waves
Very low magnetic activity on the Sun correspond with historically documented cold periods on Earth.

Professor Zharkova claims 97% accuracy for the model which dovetails with previous mini ice ages, including the Maunder Minimum period from 1645 to 1715 when frost fairs were held on the frozen Thames.
.

I think the mini ice age has already hit hard.

We won't have to wait till 2030.

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - A severe winter storm froze pipes and disrupted services at refineries on the U.S. Atlantic coast on Thursday, sending fuel prices higher as heavy snowfall and high winds caused electricity outages for almost 80,000 homes and businesses.




Utilities in the Southeast have restored service to some customers who were hit by the storm overnight.

Heavy snow pounded the East Coast from Maine as far south as North Carolina on Thursday, taking out power lines, icing roadways and closing schools.

The storm was powered by a rapid plunge in barometric pressure that some weather forecasters referred to as bombogenesis or a “bomb cyclone,” which brought high winds and swift, heavy snowfall.

The region has also been in the grip of a prolonged cold spell.

Prices for heating oil HO-NYH HO-DIFF-NYH and natural gas in the U.S. Northeast hit their highest levels in years on the back of near-record heating demand. Benchmark U.S. heating oil futures HOc1 are near their highest in almost three years.

The U.S. average home residential heating oil prices rose 5.4 percent to $3.078 a gallon in the week through Jan. 1 from a week earlier, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. On the East Coast, prices rose 5.4 percent to $3.085 a gallon.

U.S. average residential heating oil prices for the 2017-18 period are well above the 2016-17 levels, the data showed.

U.S. natural gas demand was expected to remain near record highs this week. Natural gas is the major fuel for residential and commercial heating in the U.S. Northeast and is also widely used by power plants.

On Thursday, natural gas futures NGc1 fell 12.8 cents, or 4.3 percent, to settle at $2.880 per million British thermal units. That was the biggest one-day decline for the contract in three weeks as less cold weather was predicted. However, regional prices soared under pressure from the cold snap.

U.S. spot natural gas and power prices on Thursday rose to their highest in years in several regions.

Next-day power prices in New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX and PJM E-PJWHRTP-IX, which covers much of the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Midwest region, rose to their highest since January 2014 due to a spike in local natural gas prices.

New England’s cash prices LNG-CG-BS-SNL soared last week, and remained near four-year highs at $36.32 per mmBtu. ISO-New England, that region’s power grid operator, said on Thursday that its power operators were relying more heavily on generators that burn heating oil due to heavy natural gas demand from homes and businesses.

“We expect to have sufficient capacity and fuel available and expect to be able to weather the storm without running up against significant emissions limits, but concerns remain the same regarding fuel availability and emissions limits throughout this protracted cold spell and the rest of the winter,” the company said in a statement.

ISO New England spokeswoman Marcia Blomberg said there were “no immediate reliability issues to the local area” due to the shutdown of Pilgrim.

The lights did not go out in New England after the 688 megawatt Pilgrim plant shut because New England, like all U.S. power grids, keeps some generating plants in reserve in case an operating unit unexpectedly shuts. On Thursday, the grid had a reserve of over 2,100 MW. One megawatt is enough to power about 1,000 U.S. homes.

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Already in an ice age—2017 was the second hottest year!

I think it was their half yearly projection.

You forgot the rest of the article mechanic (I guess that's why you normally don't post a link)

Quote:


Professor Zharkova also said this

However, Zharkova ends with a word of warning: not about the cold but about humanity's attitude toward the environment during the minimum. We must not ignore the effects of global warming and assume that it isn't happening. “The Sun buys us time to stop these carbon emissions,” Zharkova says. The next minimum might give the Earth a chance to reduce adverse effects from global warming.

https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-predict-mini-ice-age-could-hit-uk-by-2030-...

Scientists predict 'mini ice age' could hit UK by

How do they know that it will only hit the UK ?

OK for the rest of us ?

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 16^th, 2018 at 9:19pm:


im not sure what you are alluding to...

Lees said the later half of the year would be really cold and decrease the average temp. Yeah right.

Looks clear to me.

Quote:


HOTTEST YEAR EVER... 

Scientists predict 'mini ice age' could hit UK by

How do they know that it will only hit the UK ?

OK for the rest of us ?

Dnarever wrote on Jan 16^th, 2018 at 9:01pm:



There are negative feedback loops in the climate.
Put simply - if you try to heat up the Earth it
will react by getting colder.

One example of such a loop is the melting of fresh water
from Greenland  which would cause the Gulf stream to stop
and plunge not only England but the whole of Europe into an Ice Age.


Remember London is 51 degrees North & so is the middle of Canada.
Without the effect of the Gulf stream, Europe would have a
climate just like Canada -
extreme winter cold.

Where have I tried to discredit AGW. Man has warmed the earth through land use changes. Think UHI. What I have tried to discredit is CAGW.

Bernt Balchen said 2000.

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=zmI0AAAAIBAJ&sjid=L5wEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5376,320...

What was the fee for ice, Bobby?

Ice ages are a long way off.

I think you mean snow, Bobby.

If you are not honest how can anyone believe your promises of “fair and impartial?” 

Where the hell have I EVER said ANYTHING about supporting Gore? Lie after lie from the would–be “fair and impartial” Mod.

I post science, not fairy tales.

There is science and there is bullshit.

The bullshit ice age stuff isn’t supported by any facts that is why you are always quickly reduced to evasion or insults.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 20^th, 2018 at 4:43pm:



Monk backed a donkey to win called Al Gore:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01951/2hay_1951221c.jpg