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Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy (Read 4320 times)
Ajax
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #15 - Dec 23rd, 2017 at 8:31pm
 
TheFunPolice wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 8:15pm:
Ajax wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 4:14pm:
Marla wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 10:33am:
Koch Brothers-funded propaganda.

You should be ashamed of yourself


Hi Marla

For all your slapstick commentary how is it that you of all people can't pick out the snake oil when its shoved under your nose..... Cheesy

I'll tellya what show me how CO2 affects temperature and I will believe................ Wink


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas


So all the increase in CO2 is due to mans emissions that's snake oil right there brother.

No natural emissions............????
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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TheFunPolice
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #16 - Dec 23rd, 2017 at 9:04pm
 
Ajax has always been a kiddie fiddler!
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #17 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 1:00am
 
Ajax wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 8:26pm:
I’m not denying that the Earth has warmed, it has been warming since the little ice age...


Or at least that's what the Koch Brothers tell you.
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #18 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 7:47am
 
Ajax wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 8:31pm:
TheFunPolice wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 8:15pm:
Ajax wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 4:14pm:
Marla wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 10:33am:
Koch Brothers-funded propaganda.

You should be ashamed of yourself


Hi Marla

For all your slapstick commentary how is it that you of all people can't pick out the snake oil when its shoved under your nose..... Cheesy

I'll tellya what show me how CO2 affects temperature and I will believe................ Wink


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas


So all the increase in CO2 is due to mans emissions that's snake oil right there brother.

No natural emissions............????


The natural emissions have been in balance for thousands of years. It is additional Co2 in the system that changes the balance.

We have seen a temp change in this last century greater than expected from natural change in many thousands of years. The difference is believed to be what we are putting into the atmosphere.

The vast majority of climate scientists believe that it is primarily Co2.
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The_Barnacle
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #19 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 11:11am
 
Dnarever wrote on Dec 23rd, 2017 at 7:13pm:
Sorry I added the graph as you posted this.

Can you see the pause ?


You will notice that the climate deniers always use a graph that starts with 1997 or 1998. It is this dishonest cherry picking of data that implies the so called "pause".

Dnarever's graph is over a longer time frame (climate is considered to be over 30 years at least). It shows that amongst the noise there is a steady increase in temperature.
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lee
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #20 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 11:43am
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 11:11am:
You will notice that the climate deniers always use a graph that starts with 1997 or 1998. It is this dishonest cherry picking of data that implies the so called "pause".



You notice Dna's graph starts in 1979? Is that cherry picking or what? Why did climate start in 1979?
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #21 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 3:46pm
 
lee wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 11:43am:
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 11:11am:
You will notice that the climate deniers always use a graph that starts with 1997 or 1998. It is this dishonest cherry picking of data that implies the so called "pause".



You notice Dna's graph starts in 1979? Is that cherry picking or what? Why did climate start in 1979?


Actually it is the same graph used by Marohasy and it starts at 1979 because that is when that type of satellite measurement became available.
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #22 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 4:29pm
 
Dnarever wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 3:46pm:
Actually it is the same graph used by Marohasy and it starts at 1979 because that is when that type of satellite measurement became available.



Yep. So a poor metric for climate change.

You do know they did the "no warming bit" by working backwards? That is from the latest date to the earliest date.

Also the IPCC acknowledges the "hiatus", as well as multiple papers. So you disagree with the IPCC. Well done.

Did you know the "hiatus" is determined by the IPCC  as warming not being at the same rate as the 1979-2000 warming? See DRAH's comment about "rates of change". Except he doesn't like it when you point out the "rate of change" is not constant.

Phil Jones CRU -

"Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).

I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.

So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

Did you think temperatures should just continue to go up with CO2? No natural variability?

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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #23 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 4:34pm
 
lee wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 4:29pm:
Dnarever wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 3:46pm:
Actually it is the same graph used by Marohasy and it starts at 1979 because that is when that type of satellite measurement became available.



Yep. So a poor metric for climate change.

You do know they did the "no warming bit" by working backwards? That is from the latest date to the earliest date.

Also the IPCC acknowledges the "hiatus", as well as multiple papers. So you disagree with the IPCC. Well done.

Did you know the "hiatus" is determined by the IPCC  as warming not being at the same rate as the 1979-2000 warming? See DRAH's comment about "rates of change". Except he doesn't like it when you point out the "rate of change" is not constant.

Phil Jones CRU -

"Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).

I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.

So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

Did you think temperatures should just continue to go up with CO2? No natural variability?



Yep. So a poor metric for climate change.


It is the centre piece of the no climate change exponents 17 year pause evidence. This is what their entire case is based on ???

You can not have it both ways.
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #24 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 4:46pm
 
Dnarever wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 4:34pm:
It is the centre piece of the no climate change exponents 17 year pause evidence. This is what their entire case is based on ???



Wrong. It is the centrepiece of the alarmists. They are using the same flawed metric to show it. If they were using only the last  17 year pause there would be no need to go back to 1979. Wink
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #25 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 4:56pm
 
Changing the goalposts!

Lee doesn’t get paid much!
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #26 - Dec 24th, 2017 at 9:46pm
 
lee wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 4:29pm:
Dnarever wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 3:46pm:
Actually it is the same graph used by Marohasy and it starts at 1979 because that is when that type of satellite measurement became available.



Yep. So a poor metric for climate change.

You do know they did the "no warming bit" by working backwards? That is from the latest date to the earliest date.

Also the IPCC acknowledges the "hiatus", as well as multiple papers. So you disagree with the IPCC. Well done.

Did you know the "hiatus" is determined by the IPCC  as warming not being at the same rate as the 1979-2000 warming? See DRAH's comment about "rates of change". Except he doesn't like it when you point out the "rate of change" is not constant.

Phil Jones CRU -

"Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).

I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.

So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

Did you think temperatures should just continue to go up with CO2? No natural variability?



Quote:
Also the IPCC acknowledges the "hiatus", as well as multiple papers. So you disagree with the IPCC. Well done.


In reality they don't. it has been dishonestly attributed that they do by the sceptics but it is untrue.
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #27 - Dec 25th, 2017 at 10:04am
 
Dnarever wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 9:46pm:
Quote:
Also the IPCC acknowledges the "hiatus", as well as multiple papers. So you disagree with the IPCC. Well done.


In reality they don't. it has been dishonestly attributed that they do by the sceptics but it is untrue.



Perhaps you need to read the IPCC Report.

"Box 9.2 | Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years
The observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c). Depending on the observational data set, the GMST trend over 1998–2012 is estimated to be around one-third to one-half of the trend over 1951–2012 (Section 2.4.3, Table 2.7; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c). For example, in HadCRUT4 the trend is 0.04oC per decade over 1998–2012, compared to 0.11oC per decade over 1951–2012. The reduction in observed GMST trend is most marked in Northern Hemisphere winter (Section 2.4.3; Cohen et al., 2012). Even with this “hiatus” in GMST trend, the decade of the 2000s has been the warmest in the instrumental record of GMST (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.19). Nevertheless, the occurrence of the hiatus in GMST trend during the past 15 years raises the two related questions of what has caused it and whether climate models are able to reproduce it."

WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf

So you are either dishonest or don't know what you are talking about.
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #28 - Dec 25th, 2017 at 10:53am
 
lee wrote on Dec 25th, 2017 at 10:04am:
Dnarever wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 9:46pm:
Quote:
Also the IPCC acknowledges the "hiatus", as well as multiple papers. So you disagree with the IPCC. Well done.


In reality they don't. it has been dishonestly attributed that they do by the sceptics but it is untrue.



Perhaps you need to read the IPCC Report.

"Box 9.2 | Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years
The observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c). Depending on the observational data set, the GMST trend over 1998–2012 is estimated to be around one-third to one-half of the trend over 1951–2012 (Section 2.4.3, Table 2.7; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c). For example, in HadCRUT4 the trend is 0.04oC per decade over 1998–2012, compared to 0.11oC per decade over 1951–2012. The reduction in observed GMST trend is most marked in Northern Hemisphere winter (Section 2.4.3; Cohen et al., 2012). Even with this “hiatus” in GMST trend, the decade of the 2000s has been the warmest in the instrumental record of GMST (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.19). Nevertheless, the occurrence of the hiatus in GMST trend during the past 15 years raises the two related questions of what has caused it and whether climate models are able to reproduce it."

WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf

So you are either dishonest or don't know what you are talking about.


There are thousands of reports and even this one is talking about the claimed hiatus period as a drop in the rate of increase. The climate sceptics claim that there is no increase. It is different. The vast majority are still saying that there was no hiatus.

Quote:
But the 'hiatus' since the record hot year of 1998 — probably due to increased heat uptake by the oceans — is no sign that global warming has stopped, as some would like to hope.


There are a number of views that have been considered as you would expect. Nobody is saying that global warming has stopped. Most of the other indicators ignored this supposed pause.

Things like record hot year after record hot year, Retreating glaciers etc have all ignored this supposed hiatus. 
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lee
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Re: Climate Change: The Facts 2017 Jennifer Marohasy
Reply #29 - Dec 25th, 2017 at 11:17am
 
Dnarever wrote on Dec 25th, 2017 at 10:53am:
There are thousands of reports and even this one is talking about the claimed hiatus period as a drop in the rate of increase. The climate sceptics claim that there is no increase. It is different.



I don't know anyone who says that. Can you please provide proof?

Dnarever wrote on Dec 25th, 2017 at 10:53am:
The vast majority are still saying that there was no hiatus.



And the later ones say that there was. Who to believe? Wink

You do know it is not a popularity contest? The most votes doesn't necessarily win.

Dnarever wrote on Dec 25th, 2017 at 10:53am:
Things like record hot year after record hot year,


Oh you mean the ones that can pinpoint temperatures back to 1880-1890 to within +-.01º C. That's too funny. I think there were something like 5 stations in Europe back then. And of course the water temperature wasn't input into global temps until about 1980 and then they reconstructed backwards.

Absolutely too funny.

But at least you have now agreed that the IPCC did in fact say there was an hiatus.

You will notice I also wrote this-
lee wrote on Dec 24th, 2017 at 4:29pm:
Did you know the "hiatus" is determined by the IPCC  as warming not being at the same rate as the 1979-2000 warming?


Well, I suppose I could be wrong. According to you 1998. Wink
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