Australian Politics Forum - The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?

lee

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Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?
Reply #15 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 3:40pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 3:22pm:

And you know that ocean warming isn't immediate. Which was the whole flaw in your OP. Surely you realise that?

So we have had about 40 years of AGW and it hasn't become apparent yet? O-o-o -kay.

Or it was apparent when the sea level was supposed to have accelerated and it has now stopped waiting for the temperature to catch up?

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Dnarever Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 57149 Here Gender:	Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise? Reply #16 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:21pm lee wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 1:12pm: And yet I didn't say they weren't. I clearly said accelerating sea level rise. I think I posted yesterday from the raw data you can see that 17 of the last 20 months the mean was over 2.0 mtrs from the first 20 months 4 were over 2.0 mtrs.
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lee

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Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?
Reply #17 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:48pm

Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:21pm:

I think I posted yesterday from the raw data you can see that 17 of the last 20 months the mean was over 2.0 mtrs from the first 20 months 4 were over 2.0 mtrs.

If this is Fort Denison, you are wrong.
Mth Year Mean
9 2015 0.969
10 2015 0.91
11 2015 0.948
12 2015 0.958
1 2016 0.961
2 2016 1.005
3 2016 1.005
4 2016 1.03
5 2016 1.146
6 2016 1.121
7 2016 1.094
8 2016 1.015
9 2016 1.039
10 2016 1.07
11 2016 1.06
12 2016 1.012
1 2017 1.057
2 2017 1.071
3 2017 1.011
4 2017 1.047
5 2017 1.089
6 2017 1.031

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Dnarever

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Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?
Reply #18 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:51pm

lee wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:48pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:21pm:

I think I posted yesterday from the raw data you can see that 17 of the last 20 months the mean was over 2.0 mtrs from the first 20 months 4 were over 2.0 mtrs.

If this is Fort Denison, you are wrong.
Mth Year Mean
9 2015 0.969
10 2015 0.91
11 2015 0.948
12 2015 0.958
1 2016 0.961
2 2016 1.005
3 2016 1.005
4 2016 1.03
5 2016 1.146
6 2016 1.121
7 2016 1.094
8 2016 1.015
9 2016 1.039
10 2016 1.07
11 2016 1.06
12 2016 1.012
1 2017 1.057
2 2017 1.071
3 2017 1.011
4 2017 1.047
5 2017 1.089
6 2017 1.031

You know that your list of 20 readings has 22 records ? Take away the top two and post the first 20 and you will see that what I said was correct.

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lee Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 16397 Gender:	Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise? Reply #19 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:53pm Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:51pm: You know that your list of 20 readings has 22 records ? And NONE over 2.0 metres.
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Dnarever

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Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?
Reply #20 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 6:49pm

lee wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:53pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 4:51pm:

You know that your list of 20 readings has 22 records ?

And NONE over 2.0 metres.

OK I remembered wrong - it should have been over 1 mtr. but the result is the same and does not look good for the there is no increase or acceleration arguers.

We have gone from mean monthly tides at Fort Denison seldom being over a metre to mean monthly tides at Fort Denison seldom being under a metre.

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lee

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Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?
Reply #21 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 7:28pm

Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 6:49pm:

OK I remembered wrong - it should have been over 1 mtr. but the result is the same and does not look good for the there is no increase or acceleration arguers.

We have gone from mean monthly tides at Fort Denison seldom being over a metre to mean monthly tides at Fort Denison seldom being under a metre.

And yet it flies in the face of the global data.

There are so many things affecting mean sea level height. Wink

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Dnarever

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Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?
Reply #22 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 7:33pm

lee wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 7:28pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 6:49pm:

OK I remembered wrong - it should have been over 1 mtr. but the result is the same and does not look good for the there is no increase or acceleration arguers.

We have gone from mean monthly tides at Fort Denison seldom being over a metre to mean monthly tides at Fort Denison seldom being under a metre.

And yet it flies in the face of the global data.

There are so many things affecting mean sea level height. Wink

It is the example that you chose to look at.

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lee Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 16397 Gender:	Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise? Reply #23 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 7:39pm Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 7:33pm: It is the example that you chose to look at. Only the last 20 months? Did I?
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Dnarever

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Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?
Reply #24 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 8:36pm

lee wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 7:39pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 7:33pm:

It is the example that you chose to look at.

Only the last 20 months? Did I?

Sorry I thought by global you meant outside of Fort Dennison. I chose 20 just for convenience, it was that or 50 just to see some comparisons.

The last 50 average 1.02 M.
The Last 100 average 0.961.

The first 50 were 0.93
50 from the 1930's were 0.90
1950's 0.913
1960's 0.942
etc.

No matter how you look at it the trend is upwards and it likely went up at Manly too.

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lee

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Re: The Rise and Rise of Sea Level Rise?
Reply #25 - Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 8:40pm

Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 8:36pm:

Sorry I thought by global you meant outside of Fort Dennison.

Well in that case in seems to have peaked in mid - 2016.

Dnarever wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2017 at 8:36pm:

The last 50 average 1.02 M.
The Last 100 average 0.961.

The first 50 were 0.93
50 from the 1930's were 0.90
1950's 0.913
1960's 0.942
etc.

No matter how you look at it the trend is upwards and it likely went up at Manly too.

And in that 100 odd years have they changed equipment? Greater accuracy?

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