Australian Politics Forum - Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics. Reply #15 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 2:56pm BTW - The storms in 1974 were in May - June. Not April. Makes you an April Fool. "Twenty five years ago severe ocean storms in May-June 1974 ravaged the south-east coast of the Australian mainland (Foster et al. 1975)." http://new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/realtime/wave/docs/The%201974%20Storms%20Revisite...
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Dnarever

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #16 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 3:21pm

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 2:56pm:

BTW - The storms in 1974 were in May - June. Not April. Makes you an April Fool.

"Twenty five years ago severe ocean storms in May-June 1974 ravaged the south-east coast of the Australian mainland (Foster et al. 1975)."

http://new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/realtime/wave/docs/The%201974%20Storms%20Revisite...

Quote:

BTW - The storms in 1974 were in May - June. Not April. Makes you an April Fool.

Here is when you said the highest was ? May not April, In fact it was the day following the first storm.

Quote:

"Maximum recorded level of 2.400 metres at 1300 hours 25/05/1974

Between May 24 and June 16, 1974, the Sydney coastline was lashed by three storms that caused enormous damage to the coastline and altered the built landscape forever.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/northern-beaches/one-of-the-storms-th...

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Dnarever

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #17 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 3:37pm

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 2:49pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 2:10pm:

Congratulations - you managed to measure a few of the largest storms in our history that occurred in 1974. Pointing out the impact of one off weather events is meaningless, yet the averages just keep increasing.

So the Collaroy storm and wash out of the beach was not a large one? Grin

Wasn't it supposed to the worst in more than 40 years? It should have been up here in lights. But MSL for June 2016 was 1.21 metres,

"Residents of Sydney's northern beaches are cleaning up after the area was hit by the worst storms in more than 40 years on the weekend leaving homes and businesses severely damaged."

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/06/06/northern-beaches-homes-coastline-w...

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 2:10pm:

The worst thing you guys can do is to provide data that you don't understand.

So you have shown.

It should have been up here in lights. But MSL for June 2016 was 1.21 metres,

The same number for 1974 was 1.055 and the high peak for June 2016 was 2.199 which is high.

So the 1974 figure you quoted the high for on average was not impressive why would you quote the lower mean number for 2016 when it is consistent with 1974.

You had the option to compare apples with apples but chose not to.

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lee

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #18 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:05pm

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 3:21pm:

Here is when you said the highest was ? May not April, In fact it was the day following the first storm.

Quote:
"Maximum recorded level of 2.400 metres at 1300 hours 25/05/1974

You do realise that is a quote direct from BoM? It is also the HIGH tide figure, NOT the Mean figure. Capiche?

Once again Sea Level is measured at the MEAN.

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lee

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #19 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:12pm

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 3:37pm:

The same number for 1974 was 1.055 and the high peak for June 2016 was 2.199 which is high.

So you quote the MEAN from April 1974 and the HIGH from June 2016 and that is comparing "apples with apples"?

And of course 2.199 is not as high as 2.4metres, which was not a storm affected tide that I can see.

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Dnarever

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #20 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:18pm

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:05pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 3:21pm:

Here is when you said the highest was ? May not April, In fact it was the day following the first storm.

Quote:
"Maximum recorded level of 2.400 metres at 1300 hours 25/05/1974

You do realise that is a quote direct from BoM? It is also the HIGH tide figure, NOT the Mean figure. Capiche?

Once again Sea Level is measured at the MEAN.

Yes I know what it is. Only commented on it because you used the figure (high - 1974) even though it has little relevance. Using the word Maximum rather gives it away as not being the mean - no ?

My following use of the same term was only in order to compare apples with apples when you had compared the 1974 event in terms of Highest measure and then wanted to compare it with the 2016 event as a monthly mean value.

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lee

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #21 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:31pm

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:18pm:

Yes I know what it is. Only commented on it because you used the figure (high - 1974) even though it has little relevance. Using the word Maximum rather gives it away as not being the mean - no ?

Well I AM glad you finally caught up.

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:18pm:

My following use of the same term was only in order to compare apples with apples when you had compared the 1974 event in terms of Highest measure and then wanted to compare it with the 2016 event as a monthly mean value.

Really? Where did I do that?

I even gave you the link so you could compare "apples with apples".

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 1:12pm:

So the highest recorded was in 1974. So much for Rising and Accelerated Rising of sea levels.

Now it doesn't seem like it was storm induced, so even HIGH tide figures don't agree with you. And you would think high tide figures would need to rise to give a greater mean, although low tide could do it in an uncertain world.

But you would think if it was related to ice melt both low and high tides would have led the accelerating sea level rise. Wink

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Dnarever

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #22 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:12pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 3:37pm:

The same number for 1974 was 1.055 and the high peak for June 2016 was 2.199 which is high.

So you quote the MEAN from April 1974 and the HIGH from June 2016 and that is comparing "apples with apples"?

And of course 2.199 is not as high as 2.4metres, which was not a storm affected tide that I can see.

I did the exact opposite of what you had already done putting all the numbers on the table.

When you brought up 74 you used the figure as 2.4 peak and then when you brought up 2016 you used the number 1.21 mean

My contribution gave us

1974: 2.4 peak 1.055 Mean.

2006: 2.199 peak 1.21 mean

I put all the numbers on the table is all.

2.4metres, which was not a storm affected tide that I can see.

Well it did occur in the immediate period of a 100 year storm.

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lee

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #23 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 5:08pm

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm:

When you brought up 74 you used the figure as 2.4 peak and then when you brought up 2016 you used the number 1.21 mean

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm:

When you brought up 74 you used the figure as 2.4 peak and then when you brought up 2016 you used the number 1.21 mean

In two completely separate posts. Whar made you think they were linked?

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm:

My contribution gave us

1974: 2.4 peak 1.055 Mean.

2006: 2.199 peak 1.21 mean

I put all the numbers on the table is all.

Nope. That's what you didn't do, Wink

So you've gone from April 1974 was a storm surge event; it seems not; to now furiously back peddling.

And you can't even do that gracefully.

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm:

Well it did occur in the immediate period of a 100 year storm.

Yep. It knew a storm was coming and went out in sympathy. Grin

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Dnarever

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #24 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 6:25pm

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 5:08pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm:

When you brought up 74 you used the figure as 2.4 peak and then when you brought up 2016 you used the number 1.21 mean

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm:

When you brought up 74 you used the figure as 2.4 peak and then when you brought up 2016 you used the number 1.21 mean

In two completely separate posts. Whar made you think they were linked?

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm:

My contribution gave us

1974: 2.4 peak 1.055 Mean.

2006: 2.199 peak 1.21 mean

I put all the numbers on the table is all.

Nope. That's what you didn't do, Wink

So you've gone from April 1974 was a storm surge event; it seems not; to now furiously back peddling.

And you can't even do that gracefully.

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 4:49pm:

Well it did occur in the immediate period of a 100 year storm.

Yep. It knew a storm was coming and went out in sympathy. Grin

Yep. It knew a storm was coming and went out in sympathy

Your still persisting with your error I see. The storm started the day before the record sea level.

Not going one step backwards as my explanation clearly shows.

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lee

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #25 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 7:00pm

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 6:25pm:

The storm started the day before the record sea level.

"Beach Erosion, May-June, 1974, Central and South Coast, NSW

Abstract
Between May 24th and June 18th 1974, three periods of erosive wave conditions dramatically changed the character of many beaches along the central and southern New South Wales Coast. This paper documents and evaluates regional variations in the responses of beaches to these erosional events for selected portions of this coast (Figure 1)."

ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1066&context=scipapers

25 days before?

Or if a different storm perhaps you can provide a link.

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Dnarever

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #26 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 7:19pm

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 7:00pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 6:25pm:

The storm started the day before the record sea level.

"Beach Erosion, May-June, 1974, Central and South Coast, NSW

Abstract
Between May 24th and June 18th 1974, three periods of erosive wave conditions dramatically changed the character of many beaches along the central and southern New South Wales Coast. This paper documents and evaluates regional variations in the responses of beaches to these erosional events for selected portions of this coast (Figure 1)."

ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1066&context=scipapers

25 days before?

Or if a different storm perhaps you can provide a link.

OK Below is what you posted as the Maximum record:

Quote:

"Maximum recorded level of 2.400 metres at 1300 hours 25/05/1974

Now below is the dates of the storms:

Quote:

Between May 24th and June 18th 1974

Now the conclusion we have is:

a) Huge storm commencing on 24/5

AND

b) Record high sea level 25/5.

not a coincidence.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics. Reply #27 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 7:58pm Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 7:19pm: not a coincidence. Thank you. I apologise. So the extremely high tide in 1974 was due to storm surge. Similarly 2016 seems to have been affected by storm surge. Makes pinpointing any Mean Sea Level Rise problematic.
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Dnarever

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Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics.
Reply #28 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 8:19pm

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 7:58pm:

Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 7:19pm:

not a coincidence.

Thank you. I apologise. So the extremely high tide in 1974 was due to storm surge. Similarly 2016 seems to have been affected by storm surge.

Makes pinpointing any Mean Sea Level Rise problematic. Wink

Neither event seems to have influenced the mean result by much if at all and I would assume that there were other storms going back in history having a balancing effect overall.

We may be talking about 10 readings out or 125 years X 365 days. (45,625) You probably noticed that the 2016 storms seemed to have no real perceivable impact. This is likely because it depends on a number of other factors I would think.

To have a measurable impact I suspect you need a high high-tide scheduled due to the correct moon phase and distances coupled with the storm and sea swell amount of water in the system and the tide times etc.

I remember the 74 tide - the water was up to my grandmothers door at high tide. I caught a fish in the front yard from the porch.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Tony Abbott's Climate Speech in Politics. Reply #29 - Oct 21^st, 2017 at 9:25pm Dnarever wrote on Oct 21^st, 2017 at 8:19pm: this is likely because it depends on a number of other factors I would think. Oh definitely. El Nino, La Nina, King tides, neap tides, Wave height, Swell.
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