Bam wrote on Jun 20
th, 2017 at 11:55pm:
matty wrote on Jun 20
th, 2017 at 11:20pm:
Bam wrote on Jun 20
th, 2017 at 6:02pm:
If the polls are accurate, One Nation's support is quite soft. The poll I linked was taken about the time that various leaks that were damaging to One Nation were circulating in the media. Some other polls around that time were around 6% or so.
If more scandals of this kind comes out, One Nation's support won't be sustained.
But there have been a few recent scandals and the left-wing have tried to destroy them and yet they stand at 11%. Also, I fail to see how 11% is soft. By your reasoning, 9% is even softer? That is the Green's number.
PHON only received 1.3% of the vote last election. That was a DD so they probably would have won two seats of the four that they have at present. At a normal half-senate federal election 11% would probably translate to around 9 seats, depending where they get the votes. Qld and NSW will of course always be very strong for PHON but they have a smaller yet still prominent presence in WA.
It's only ONE POLL.
Now you can try to argue the point about one single 11% poll for ON, but let's be clear about this - the poll figures for ON have been quite volatile. Why? Different polling methodologies perhaps? A real measure of volatility?
Oh, and your feverish speculation about 11% and 9 Senate seats for ON is not going to happen. ON's support is not uniform, but is weak in SA and Tasmania, and not much better in Victoria. Other parties will also direct preferences away from them, so if they're not already close to a quota on first-preference votes they're likely to be stranded. Also, during election campaigns, other parties get to run campaigns too. If that ON volatility is real then a campaign against them to remind the voters of their foibles will reduce their vote, especially if the corruption allegations get a run.
They actually haven't been that volatile. Most of the polls that I have seen had them at about 8/9%, close to the 10 but not quite.
This one may well be an outlier but we will see in coming weeks, and nowhere did I state that this 11% is part of a consistent trend. I acknowledged that this is just one poll. Also, yes whilst they have traditionally performed weakly outside of Qld, NSW and WA at the last election they actually came pretty close to getting a seat in each of Tas and SA, Vic was their worst performance, so it is far from impossible that they do pick up seats in those states. And I don't believe that's true. I think that they will get preferences from the Australian Conservatives and LDP.
Also I should just let you know that I know many people who have voted Liberal all their lives (including last election) who have told me that they are voting for her next election. Some of these people were card-carrying conservatives like I used to be, who feel that the Liberals have let them down and are looking for an alternate voice.
You latte-sipping hypocritical sanctimonious Marrickville Newton Glebe dimwits can crow all you want but Pauline ain't going away.
Forum
Pages: 
