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Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low (Read 4743 times)
whiteknight
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Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
May 17th, 2017 at 7:02am
 
Wage growth set to stall at all-time low   Sad

The Age
May 16 2017

Real wage growth has fallen into negative territory and stalled at an all-time low, figures to be released on Wednesday are expected to show, as workers receive pay rises that have failed to keep up with the cost of living.   Sad

The dire forecast from Australia's banks could delay an interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank and create a headache for the Turnbull government as it bets on a doubling in wage growth to help bring it back into surplus by 2021.

Consumers will also be hit with higher prices, analysts have predicted, as energy and raw material costs build up in shops while wages remain stubbornly low.

The median forecast of more than 20 banks surveyed by Bloomberg is for annual wage growth to hit 1.9 per cent when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases figures for the first three months of this year.

The figure would put wage growth below the rise in the cost of living, at 2.1 per cent.

Negative real wage growth has occurred only twice since current records began two decades ago: during the global financial crisis, and across nine months in 2013-14.

According to the bureau's December figures, the cruder measure of average weekly earnings shows the growth in male wages is at its lowest level since World War Two.

The latest forecast comes after the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling lashed the "wildly optimistic" forecasts of the Turnbull government's budget and leading economist Saul Eslake called the predicted wage growth figures "aspirational".   Sad

Former Liberal leader John Hewson weighed in on Tuesday night, claiming the government had "consistently overestimated tax revenue".

"They think a wage explosion is going to happen when unemployment is relatively flat; I don't see how those numbers add up," he told a post-budget forum at the Australian National University.

The budget booked in wages growth of 3.75 per cent by 2020 to help deliver a 16 per cent boost to tax receipts and bring it back to surplus by 2021.

Treasurer Scott Morrison has repeatedly defended the budget's wage predictions, reiterating Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe's assessment that Australia was 90 per cent of the way through the end of the mining boom and wages would start to pick up again once the transition was complete.

"We actually took down the wage growth forecasts from what we had in December and they remain, as I said, in line with consensus forecasts in the country," he said last week, after emphasising that he understood the frustration of Australians experiencing low wage growth.

"It has been some time since many Australians have had a decent pay rise," he said. "Wage price growth has been modest, to put it diplomatically, and when your wages are tight, those services that you rely on become more and more important to you."

Commonwealth Bank economist Kristina Clifton said the sluggish wage growth had "started to weigh on spending", along with "high household debt levels".

"Rising house prices are typically associated with positive wealth effects," she said. "However, these wealth effects are now being swamped by highly indebted households trying to pay down their debt."

TD Securities analyst Annette Beacher forecasted "this week could be a game changer for monetary policy".

"If the labour market collapses in April, and March quarter wages growth decelerates further to a fresh record low, then we will be pushing out the timing of the first [Reserve Bank] hike," she said.

In a double hit for consumers, Morgan Stanley has predicted shops will pass rising energy and raw material costs on while wages remain low, contributing to inflation.   

The wage figures have long frustrated the board of the Reserve Bank, who released the minutes of their May meeting on Tuesday and hinted they might have to cut rates if more Australians weren't able to get the jobs they wanted.

"It suggests an increased focus on underemployment," said JP Morgan chief economist Sally Auld. "Essentially, this is the jobs-versus-hours distinction – if hours rise, the underemployment rate should come down, but unemployment will be stable or higher."

Capital Economics forecaster Paul Dales said: "We have been saying it since last year: it's the high underemployment rate that's keeping wage growth low.   Sad
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #1 - May 17th, 2017 at 7:23am
 
Jobsun groth, the lowest wage growth ever
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #2 - May 17th, 2017 at 7:28am
 
Hundreds of workers at Australia's largest equipment-hire business face a pay cut of up to 40 per cent unless they agree to let the company slash new employees' wages and conditions.

Fairfax Media has obtained a copy of a presentation being shown to 900 staff at Coates Hire this week, in which management warns it will consider tearing up the existing pay deal altogether if employees turn down its "best and final offer".

Undecided
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #3 - May 17th, 2017 at 7:31am
 
Isnt it great that employers can apply to FWC to have EBAs terminated knowing full well it's stacked with libtard patsies  Angry
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #4 - May 17th, 2017 at 7:37am
 
Its time wrote on May 17th, 2017 at 7:28am:
Hundreds of workers at Australia's largest equipment-hire business face a pay cut of up to 40 per cent unless they agree to let the company slash new employees' wages and conditions.

Fairfax Media has obtained a copy of a presentation being shown to 900 staff at Coates Hire this week, in which management warns it will consider tearing up the existing pay deal altogether if employees turn down its "best and final offer".

Undecided


They probably deserve it if they voted coalition.
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #5 - May 17th, 2017 at 7:37am
 
When people part-time more than full-time, most people will be at lower tax bracket as well. 
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« Last Edit: May 17th, 2017 at 8:36am by stunspore »  
 
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #6 - May 17th, 2017 at 7:50am
 
If wages growth has turned out negative then the Budget is broken. I bet the banks get out of paying the levy too.

What a mess the bloody Libs have made of things, starting with Howard!

Of course, croc will come in and say we should cut company tax but does anyone else really expect company tax cuts to achieve any more than making shareholders richer?
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Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.
 
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #7 - May 17th, 2017 at 8:39am
 
Jobsun groth , without the jobsun groth
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #8 - May 17th, 2017 at 1:57pm
 
Wage growth appears to be going backwards which is going to implode the government's budget.

The resources sector was attacked 12 months ago. Now the rest of society is getting squeezed.

Wage rises were ahead of productivity in the past.
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“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan
 
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #9 - May 17th, 2017 at 2:07pm
 
Quote:
Real wage growth has fallen into negative territory and stalled at an all-time low

Is this the first signs of a recession?
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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #10 - May 17th, 2017 at 3:37pm
 
Its time wrote on May 17th, 2017 at 7:23am:
Jobsun groth, the lowest wage growth ever


more money from the plastic. Good news for banks Sad
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #11 - May 17th, 2017 at 3:42pm
 
Bam wrote on May 17th, 2017 at 2:07pm:
Quote:
Real wage growth has fallen into negative territory and stalled at an all-time low

Is this the first signs of a recession?



Business is bad at the moment.
I know too many people out of work
& maybe I'll join them within 6 months
if it keeps on going like this.
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #12 - May 17th, 2017 at 3:47pm
 
Bam wrote on May 17th, 2017 at 2:07pm:
Quote:
Real wage growth has fallen into negative territory and stalled at an all-time low

Is this the first signs of a recession?

The looong period with stagnant wages was the first sign, now you can say we are in recession.
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Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.
 
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #13 - May 17th, 2017 at 4:00pm
 
Bobby. wrote on May 17th, 2017 at 3:42pm:
Bam wrote on May 17th, 2017 at 2:07pm:
Quote:
Real wage growth has fallen into negative territory and stalled at an all-time low

Is this the first signs of a recession?



Business is bad at the moment.
I know too many people out of work
& maybe I'll join them within 6 months
if it keeps on going like this.


I heard 30 people applying for every job in the skilled sectors !! Probably half of them are Indians !! That's what you are up against now. Decent full time Jobs becoming as rare as hens teeth Sad
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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Sir lastnail
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Re: Wage Growth Set To Stall At All Time Low
Reply #14 - May 17th, 2017 at 4:01pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on May 17th, 2017 at 3:47pm:
Bam wrote on May 17th, 2017 at 2:07pm:
Quote:
Real wage growth has fallen into negative territory and stalled at an all-time low

Is this the first signs of a recession?

The looong period with stagnant wages was the first sign, now you can say we are in recession.


Retail is in a death spiral. Discretionary spending has all but dried up !! People are tied to their mortgages Sad
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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
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