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Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market (Read 1284 times)
red baron
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Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Mar 18th, 2017 at 5:44pm
 
I have said it before here, the simple unsustainability of the Housing Market particularly in Sydney

And over the last twelve months I have been bewildered as the Sydney Market defied logic ploughing on to ever greater highs

But eventually the pendulum reaches its tipping point and inextricably swings back the other way

Have we reached this point?

There are multiple factors at work right now which could see the mountain crumble

This week NAB Bank led the charge with an Interest rate hike the first rise since 2012..Is this tipping point, the NAB was followed quickly by Westpac with their own rise. Stand by for the other two big banks to fall into line. The reality is that interest rates world wide are moving upwards

Australia is in the bottom 3 countries in the world when it comes to pay rises over the last five years. This hardly matches the skyrocketing house prices in Sydney and elsewhere in the nation

There is a new phrase being coined in the Banking Industry it is called 'loan stress zones' these are areas in suburbs where there is a high incidence of 'loan defaults' occurring. This is not particular to Sydney and all States have them. When I state loan defaulters..the figures run into the thousands. People over stretching themselves to 'get in' to the house loan market

So we have rising rates and trust me, they are predicted to go up as high as 3% in the coming year. For someone with a mortgage of $800,000 this will be cataclysmic

Once home owners start unloading onto the market, it will be like lemmings going to the cliff.  No one with a million dollar property wants to get stuck with it if people start selling big time. The more that do...the more that do

It is a self fulfilling prophecy

When the Sydney market goes it will crash with an almighty thud. No longer will people blindly pay a million dollars for a 2 bedroom fibro hovel

Get ready for the crasharoo of the century




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Gordon
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #1 - Mar 18th, 2017 at 5:53pm
 
Bring it on. I'd love a housing bloodbath
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Valkie
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #2 - Mar 18th, 2017 at 8:23pm
 
Gordon wrote on Mar 18th, 2017 at 5:53pm:
Bring it on. I'd love a housing bloodbath


Yeah, it would give those bloody complaining young uns something to really cry about.

17% plus would be good.

Perhaps then I could get some good interest on my investments.
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I HAVE A DREAM
A WONDERFUL, PEACEFUL, BEAUTIFUL DREAM.
A DREAM OF A WORLD THAT HAS NEVER KNOWN ISLAM
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SUCH A WONDERFUL DREAM
O HOW I WISH IT WERE TRU
 
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Setanta
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #3 - Mar 18th, 2017 at 8:25pm
 
Valkie wrote on Mar 18th, 2017 at 8:23pm:
Gordon wrote on Mar 18th, 2017 at 5:53pm:
Bring it on. I'd love a housing bloodbath


Yeah, it would give those bloody complaining young uns something to really cry about.

17% plus would be good.

Perhaps then I could get some good interest on my investments.


17% on 150,000 or 5% on 1.5 million? I know what I'd choose.
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nu ninda an ezzateni watar ma ekuteni
 
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Gordon
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #4 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 7:00am
 
Setanta wrote on Mar 18th, 2017 at 8:25pm:
Valkie wrote on Mar 18th, 2017 at 8:23pm:
Gordon wrote on Mar 18th, 2017 at 5:53pm:
Bring it on. I'd love a housing bloodbath


Yeah, it would give those bloody complaining young uns something to really cry about.

17% plus would be good.

Perhaps then I could get some good interest on my investments.


17% on 150,000 or 5% on 1.5 million? I know what I'd choose.


Is asset appreciating at 2% or 25%? PA?  Smiley
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #5 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 7:01am
 
Perth should've taught anyone caught in property dreamland what goes up must come down
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Trend is for Labor to go down the drain'
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Gordon
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #6 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 7:03am
 
Leftwinger wrote on Mar 19th, 2017 at 7:01am:
Perth should've taught anyone caught in property dreamland what goes up must come down


Your housing market is tied to commodity prices.
Sydney housing market is tied to 2000 people per week getting off a plane with bags full of loot.

They're not the same, they're different.
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #7 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 7:28am
 
red baron wrote on Mar 18th, 2017 at 5:44pm:
I have said it before here, the simple unsustainability of the Housing Market particularly in Sydney

And over the last twelve months I have been bewildered as the Sydney Market defied logic ploughing on to ever greater highs

But eventually the pendulum reaches its tipping point and inextricably swings back the other way

Have we reached this point?

There are multiple factors at work right now which could see the mountain crumble

This week NAB Bank led the charge with an Interest rate hike the first rise since 2012..Is this tipping point, the NAB was followed quickly by Westpac with their own rise. Stand by for the other two big banks to fall into line. The reality is that interest rates world wide are moving upwards

Australia is in the bottom 3 countries in the world when it comes to pay rises over the last five years. This hardly matches the skyrocketing house prices in Sydney and elsewhere in the nation

There is a new phrase being coined in the Banking Industry it is called 'loan stress zones' these are areas in suburbs where there is a high incidence of 'loan defaults' occurring. This is not particular to Sydney and all States have them. When I state loan defaulters..the figures run into the thousands. People over stretching themselves to 'get in' to the house loan market

So we have rising rates and trust me, they are predicted to go up as high as 3% in the coming year. For someone with a mortgage of $800,000 this will be cataclysmic

Once home owners start unloading onto the market, it will be like lemmings going to the cliff.  No one with a million dollar property wants to get stuck with it if people start selling big time. The more that do...the more that do

It is a self fulfilling prophecy

When the Sydney market goes it will crash with an almighty thud. No longer will people blindly pay a million dollars for a 2 bedroom fibro hovel

Get ready for the crasharoo of the century







It won't be a dramatic crash or a burst, more of a faint queef like sound coming from a balloon.

3% will cause some stock turnover and it will knock the cream off the cupcake but so much property has been bought with overseas cash.

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red baron
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #8 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 8:29am
 
You might be interested to know that China has suddenly come down with an almighty boom over citizens sending money out of the Country to invest overseas. The Chinese Government have made a maximum of $10,000 allowed to be sent overseas for investment. They are in the process arresting citizens who contravene this law.

Think overseas Chinese investors might get suddenly thin on the ground
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Ye Grappler
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #9 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 9:16am
 
red baron wrote on Mar 19th, 2017 at 8:29am:
You might be interested to know that China has suddenly come down with an almighty boom over citizens sending money out of the Country to invest overseas. The Chinese Government have made a maximum of $10,000 allowed to be sent overseas for investment. They are in the process arresting citizens who contravene this law.

Think overseas Chinese investors might get suddenly thin on the ground


... unless they are part of or associated with the ruling clique.. in which case a 'government corporation' will invest on behalf of the Chinese people.... all despotic regimes work that way.
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #10 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 10:27am
 
I am sure that house prices will level out in Melbourne & Sydney.

The banks will just find more money to lend to the next investor
to stop any huge crash.
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Sir lastnail
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #11 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 10:27am
 
red baron wrote on Mar 19th, 2017 at 8:29am:
You might be interested to know that China has suddenly come down with an almighty boom over citizens sending money out of the Country to invest overseas. The Chinese Government have made a maximum of $10,000 allowed to be sent overseas for investment. They are in the process arresting citizens who contravene this law.

Think overseas Chinese investors might get suddenly thin on the ground


The government will try and kick the can down the road any time they sense a fall off in house prices which is why they are talking about first home buyers raiding their own super which of course will have the undesirable effect of increasing prices and feeding the realtor swill. Sad
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Sir lastnail
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #12 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 10:31am
 
Sir Bobby wrote on Mar 19th, 2017 at 10:27am:
I am sure that house prices will level out in Melbourne & Sydney.

The banks will just find more money to lend to the next investor
to stop any huge crash.


Yes to keep the ponzi scam going they have to keep finding more and more suckers to lend too in order to pay for the higher costs of borrowing which is why so many mortgages are interest only. Just ask Berni Madoff how it ends Wink
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The Mechanic
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #13 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 10:41am
 
a lot of this forum can't seem to get their noggins around the simple fact of SUPPLY AND DEMAND ...

while we continue to flood australia with immigrants and allow foreigners buy up our market prices will continue to rise..

oh.. and lets not forget Negative Gearing on the second hand housing market...

But our useless governments have no answer to job and our GDP apart from the false housing market of which they are creating with the tide of immigrants...
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red baron
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Re: Perfect storm gathers for the Housing Market
Reply #14 - Mar 19th, 2017 at 10:41am
 
The problem is not the amount they can borrow, it is the reality that they haven't  got enough in their pay envelopes to repay the loan
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