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Anthropogenic Global Warming (Read 15459 times)
Adamant
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #150 - Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:57pm
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:49pm:
Adamant wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:46pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:44am:
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
Is happening.


There's no proof though.



When have you ever required "proof" of anything?



One doesn't always require proof.

For example, the fact that I am a dim-witted sock puppet is a given.



quod erat demonstrandum
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greggerypeccary
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #151 - Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:58pm
 
Adamant wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:57pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:49pm:
Adamant wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:46pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:44am:
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
Is happening.


There's no proof though.



When have you ever required "proof" of anything?



One doesn't always require proof.

For example, the fact that I [Mods note: Lisa's sock puppet is changing the words in my posts] am a dim-witted sock puppet is a given.



quod erat demonstrandum


Enjoy your holiday.


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Adamant
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #152 - Feb 27th, 2017 at 7:00pm
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:58pm:
Adamant wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:57pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:49pm:
Adamant wrote on Feb 27th, 2017 at 6:46pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 9:44am:
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 22nd, 2017 at 5:27am:
Is happening.


There's no proof though.



When have you ever required "proof" of anything?



One doesn't always require proof.

For example, the fact that I am a dim-witted sock puppet is a given.



quod erat demonstrandum


Enjoy your holiday.




Not this time moron!
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #153 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 4:54pm
 
While spectrometer data both satellite and terrestial prove beyond doubt that GHGs are absorbing heat radiated from land and see there is another way you can prove that the globe is warming. Use statistics!

To test a theory statistically we state our hypothesis and formulate a null hypothesis. For AGW we have:

H1: the globe is warming
H0: global temperatures are the same

You could use ChiSquare. Find the temperature at the start . Then the null hypothesis states each year has the same temperature, so expected is 1 per year or 10 per decade, however you clump your data, of the years/decades at the starting temperature. You then find the number of observed periods that were actually at that temperature. ChiSquare works on squares of (Expected-Observed).

Or use tests of difference between means, say dividing the period you want to study into two halves, P1 and P2.

The hypothesis then is that mean temp(P2) > mean temp(P1)
Null hypothesis then is mean temp(P1) = mean temp(P2)

Away you go!

ChiSquare is a fave stat of mine. It is a non–parametric test. This means it cares not whether the population is distributed according to the normal distribution (the bell shaped curve) or some other distribution. It is also good for testing experimental results, do the measured results equal the predicted/expected figures.

My bet: not a single bloody denier will try to do any statistical testing of their hypothesis. They either lack the brain power or have an emotional investment in AGW denial or WANT the earth to be cleansed {of evil}( take your pick of what evil but think Sodom and Gomorrah.)
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« Last Edit: Feb 28th, 2017 at 5:03pm by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #154 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 5:54pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 4:54pm:
To test a theory statistically we state our hypothesis and formulate a null hypothesis. For AGW we have:

H1: the globe is warming
H0: global temperatures are the same



Again the false dichotomy. The earth is warming it must be AGW. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

So when we had the LIA the earth was cooling therefore we had AGC. (not Automatic Gain Control Shirley.)

Or even the Global Cooling scare of the 60' and 70's. And not Australian Guarantee Corporation

Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 4:54pm:
ChiSquare works on squares of (Expected-Observed).



So you see what you expect to see? Oh what fun. Wink

Never mind about the world's climate being chaotic and not able to be modelled. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #155 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 6:05pm
 
Lees knows as little about stats as he does about climate and climate change.

Lees is also blind, didn’t see the “observed” in my post. I DID state my alternate hypothesis was “The globe is warming” <== didn’t mention any cause. We are testing a hypothesis here.

We are also doing a statistical test on temperature, not building a model.

ANOVA (analysis of variance) would also be interesting.

I did think Lees would be the first to chicken out. Big mouth but no knowledge at all about anything much.

Who is next?
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« Last Edit: Feb 28th, 2017 at 6:28pm by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #156 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 6:54pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 6:05pm:
I DID state my alternate hypothesis was “The globe is warming” <== didn’t mention any cause.



Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 4:54pm:
To test a theory statistically we state our hypothesis and formulate a null hypothesis. For AGW we have:


Don't even proof read your own crap. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #157 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 7:04pm
 
Piss or get off the pot Lees!

My hypothesis were AGW agnostic.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #158 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 7:42pm
 
...

This gif shows clearly that the Chi Square test would, with a high degree of confidence, reject the null hypothesis. Since the temperatures have clearly increased it then leads us to conclude the alternative hypothesis, that the earth is warming, is true.

A study of the composition of the atmosphere shows that a lot of CO2 has been added by us burning fossil fuels. Volcanoes supply a tiny amount of CO2 in comparison.

Using a spectrometer then shows us that CO2, H2O, CH4 etc are blocking heat from escaping to space—the last open panel in the greenhouse is slowly being pushed shut.

So Anthropogenic Global Warming does seem to be operating—we are sure it is but we don’t pretend to know all and there may be another cause we have missed.
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« Last Edit: Feb 28th, 2017 at 7:49pm by Jovial Monk »  

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lee
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #159 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 8:41pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 7:04pm:
My hypothesis were AGW agnostic.



Then why did you mention it?
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #160 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 8:50pm
 
You really know NOTHING, do you?

The theory to be tested is AGW. If the theory is true the globe is warming. To test this statistically we need to formulate the alternative and null hypotheses:

1. H1—globe is warming

2. H0—global temps  are constant

If temps are not constant the null hypothesis fails and the alternative hypothesis is tentatively accepted.
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TheFunPolice
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #161 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 9:04pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 5:54pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 4:54pm:
To test a theory statistically we state our hypothesis and formulate a null hypothesis. For AGW we have:

H1: the globe is warming
H0: global temperatures are the same



Again the false dichotomy. The earth is warming it must be AGW. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

So when we had the LIA the earth was cooling therefore we had AGC. (not Automatic Gain Control Shirley.)

Or even the Global Cooling scare of the 60' and 70's. And not Australian Guarantee Corporation

Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 4:54pm:
ChiSquare works on squares of (Expected-Observed).



So you see what you expect to see? Oh what fun. Wink

Never mind about the world's climate being chaotic and not able to be modelled. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

You don't even know what chaotic means! (You wouldn't hypnotise too many in a crowd for money broseph!)
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #162 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 9:06pm
 
Lees doesn’t know much, DRAH, that is for sure.

Why he denies AGW I have no idea.

ChiSquared compares observed with expected (or predicted) results, it tests the accuracy of predictions of experimental results. It is also, as I said, non parametric leading more credibility to results.
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TheFunPolice
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #163 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 9:08pm
 
lee wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 5:54pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 4:54pm:
To test a theory statistically we state our hypothesis and formulate a null hypothesis. For AGW we have:

H1: the globe is warming
H0: global temperatures are the same



Again the false dichotomy.
The earth is warming it must be AGW. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

So when we had the LIA the earth was cooling therefore we had AGC. (not Automatic Gain Control Shirley.)

Or even the Global Cooling scare of the 60' and 70's. And not Australian Guarantee Corporation

Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 4:54pm:
ChiSquare works on squares of (Expected-Observed).



So you see what you expect to see? Oh what fun. Wink

Never mind about the world's climate being chaotic and not able to be modelled. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Lee is alleging his whole technological world is based on but a mere series of false dichotomies!
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......Australia has an illegitimate Government!
 
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TheFunPolice
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #164 - Feb 28th, 2017 at 9:09pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 28th, 2017 at 9:06pm:
Lees doesn’t know much, DRAH, that is for sure.

Why he denies AGW I have no idea.

He doesn't!

It's just PR for his planet accountant sugar daddys  Grin
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......Australia has an illegitimate Government!
 
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