A study by the US Geological Survey shows that the El Nino/La Nina cycle is getting more and more extreme.

Cover that tomorrow or later in the week.

Great graph Ajax.

It shows that CO2 % was usually much higher than it is now.

Ajax wrote on Feb 26^th, 2017 at 9:42pm:



Yes & that's not to say that CO2 is good.
I wish that Thorium reactors will take off -
safe, abundant, cheap, nuclear power.

Maybe it's only 5 years away?

Bobby. wrote on Feb 26^th, 2017 at 9:49pm:


Not a fan of nuclear for two reasons, if the reactor is breached and also the waste.

Apart from that it sounds good.

Seasonal water-level anomalies averaged 11 cm above the mean across the study area during the winter of 2015–2016, with the highest anomaly (+17 cm) measured on the Oregon coast (Fig. 3c). The anomalies were significantly less than in 1997–1998 across all regions, particularly in Northern California and in the Pacific Northwest (averaged +23 cm in 1997–1998).

In California, the water-level anomalies approximated those recorded during the 2009–2010 El Niño and the winter of 2014–2015, where the latter non-El Niño-related water-level anomaly was driven by a high-amplitude upper level ridge that persisted for several years in the Gulf of Alaska,

Coastal response during the 2015–2016 El Niño
Beach morphology responds to the seasonal modulation in forcing across the Eastern North Pacific, with beaches tending to build seaward (prograde) during the low wave energy summer months and retreat landward (erode) in the stormier winter months21,28,29. As coastal populations and infrastructure are most susceptible to storm hazards (for example, flooding, cliff failures and structural damage due to elevated water levels and wave attack) when beaches are depleted, we use the relative movement of a representative shoreline contour (a proxy for beach volume change15) to assess the magnitude of coastal response and vulnerability.

Averaged across the six regions of the US West Coast, the winter shoreline retreat of 2015–2016 was the highest on record, with erosion 76% above the normal winter shoreline retreat, 27% higher than any other winter and easily eclipsing the El Niños of 2009–2010 (+12%) and 1997–1998 (−9%)

every region except for Central California experienced the highest seasonal shoreline retreat ever measured, and beaches in Central and North-central California recorded the most

appears related to a latitudinal shift in the primary storm tracks and resulting wave generation location. Elevated wave energy flux during the winter of 2015–2016 exceeded the 1997–1998 event by 29% in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest, including a 44% increase off the coast of Washington. Conversely, higher mean (+37%) and elevated wave energy (+27%) was measured during 1997–1998 for Central and Southern California compared to the 2015–2016 winter. The distinct northerly wave direction anomaly and the smaller elevated wave energy flux anomaly in Southern California during 2015–2016 relative to 1997–1998 are likely related to storm tracks taking a more southerly route during the 1997–1998 El Niño

While projections of El Niño frequency and magnitude for the 21st century are variable, one recent study suggests a potential doubling of extreme El Niños, similar to the strength of the 2015–2016 event. Such a trend would result in more significant hazards risk to coastal communities, which would be compounded by anticipated sea-level rise.

2015–2016 El Niño winter may have disrupted the dynamic equilibrium of many US West Coast beaches for years to come, much like the highly anomalous wave activity and coastal response along the Atlantic coast of Europe during the winter of 2013–2014, the most energetic since at least 1948 (ref. 45)

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years

Paul N. Pearson1 & Martin R. Palmer2

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK
T. H. Huxley School, Imperial College, RSM Building, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2BP, UK
Correspondence to: Paul N. Pearson1 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to P.N.P. (e-mail: Email: Paul.Pearson@Bristol.ac.uk).

Abstract
Knowledge of the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations throughout the Earth's history is important for a reconstruction of the links between climate and radiative forcing of the Earth's surface temperatures. Although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the early Cenozoic era (about 60 Myr ago) are widely believed to have been higher than at present, there is disagreement regarding the exact carbon dioxide levels, the timing of the decline and the mechanisms that are most important for the control of CO2 concentrations over geological timescales. Here we use the boron-isotope ratios of ancient planktonic foraminifer shells to estimate the pH of surface-layer sea water throughout the past 60 million years, which can be used to reconstruct atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago), and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial. Since the early Miocene (about 24 Myr ago), atmospheric CO2 concentrations appear to have remained below 500 p.p.m. and were more stable than before, although transient intervals of CO2 reduction may have occurred during periods of rapid cooling approximately 15 and 3 Myr ago.