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Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon (Read 2126 times)
Unforgiven
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Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:26pm
 
Bobby, migrants are going to take your job, eat your lunch, and take your house.

Some realization is finally dawning that immigration has masked a downward economic spiral in Australia.

If not for immigrants, Bruce would be playing the violin and Sheila would be tap-dancing on the street.

Has the lucky country become a big illusion with shrinking margins between minimum wage and average wage?

Will everyone be earning the minimum wage eventually?

2 million temporary visa holders is over the top. That's 8% of Australia's population.

...

...

...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/high-immigration-masks-australian-economic...

Quote:
High immigration masks Australian economic decline

Australia has ridden 25 years of economic growth without a recession. An amazing stretch of prosperity and a badge of honour that governments of all persuasions have tried to claim as their own.

Much has been written about the importance of the 1980s economic reforms in setting Australia up for this quarter century of expansion. A mining boom of historical proportions was also a massive help.

But often underappreciated is the role that migration has played. A huge increase in migration has fuelled headline GDP growth, keeping Australia technically out of recession. But, it's also masked a dirty secret, individuals haven't felt the benefit of this record run.

In fact, since the GFC, Australia has seen per capita income go backwards and it's only recent recovered.

The most recent numbers show a slight downturn in the long-term arrivals to departure ratio.

But this is a misleading picture. The truth is, migration to Australia is still proceeding at a record clip.

Much of it fuelled by "temporary" migrants, many of which are not captured in these numbers.

These include some students, 457 workers, working holiday and bridging visa holders - who are generally able to work and many of whom end up staying in the country permanently.

The below table shows that at 30 September 2016 there were nearly 2 million temporary visa holders within Australia. An increase of nearly 5 per cent in just one year.

Overall Australian population growth has averaged 1.7 per cent over the last decade - that's more than double the rate in the US over the same period.

Despite the political heat surrounding "boat people" and asylum seekers, there has been bipartisan support for a huge increase in migration to Australia for a long time.

It's a very simple equation: more people means more economic activity and that gives the government of the day an easy way to keep crowing on about good economic management.

But more people does not mean that the living standards of the existing population also rise. In fact, it can have detrimental economic effects for the people who are already here.

New workers mean greater competition for jobs, which suppresses wages. The most recent data shows that wages growth in Australia has hit a record low of just 1.9 per cent per annum.

More people also mean more demand for scarce goods and services. When there's already a tight supply of a particular good, it can mean huge price rises.

Population growth distorting housing, labour markets

Perhaps the most illustrative example is housing, where prices continue to rise sharply in Australia's two biggest magnets for new migrants, Sydney and Melbourne, putting them outside the reach of many first home buyers.

Sydney house prices have risen more than 70 per cent over the last five years.

"The unemployment rate at the moment is tracking at around 5.75 per cent - that's about 0.75 per cent higher than we would consider full employment, which is 5 per cent," said Gareth Aird, Senior Economist at the Commonwealth Bank.

"That means there's spare capacity in the labour market.

"So I think if you had a lower immigration rate at a time where there is spare capacity in the labour market that's not a bad thing.
"On top of that, we've got incredibly strong house price growth still, and if you've got more people you've got more upward pressure on house prices.

"So, at a time when house prices are still running pretty hot, some cooling in demand through lower immigration isn't a bad thing either."

Bigger pie, but more mouths eating from it

The reason why many people feel that they haven't benefitted from the Australia's long stretch of economic expansion, is quite simply because they haven't.

Their pay packets haven't gotten bigger while the cost of essential goods like shelter have risen.

High migration makes it nearly impossible for Australia to fall into recession.

The economy keeps getting bigger just because there are more people operating in it.

It's great for business, because it keeps wages low and there's more people to buy stuff from them.

It's great for governments because it means economic growth looks better than it otherwise would.

But it isn't necessarily good for ordinary workers.

As new Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has noted, the role of good economic policy should be to "raise living standards" - not just make the population, and therefore economy, bigger.
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« Last Edit: Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:42pm by Unforgiven »  

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Mattyfisk
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #1 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:49pm
 
Yes, but these must be white immigrants, right Forgiven?

What could the tinted races possibly add to our kulture?
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lee
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #2 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:51pm
 
Mattyfisk wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:49pm:
Yes, but these must be white immigrants, right Forgiven?

What could the tinted races possibly add to our kulture?


As distinct from economic migrants?
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Unforgiven
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #3 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:57pm
 
Mattyfisk wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:49pm:
Yes, but these must be white immigrants, right Forgiven?

What could the tinted races possibly add to our kulture?


Money! Follow the money.

Herr Bert and other poverty-stricken, pommie, white n i g g e r s, keep sneaking in as back loading on those Middle East live sheep transporters for ten pounds each.
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« Last Edit: Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:02pm by Unforgiven »  

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Frank
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #4 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:08pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:57pm:
Mattyfisk wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:49pm:
Yes, but these must be white immigrants, right Forgiven?

What could the tinted races possibly add to our kulture?


Money! Follow the money.

Herr Bert and other poverty-stricken, pommie, white n i g g e r s, keep sneaking in as back loading on those Middle East live sheep transporters for ten pounds each.

What brings an Indian like you to Australia if not money?
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UnSubRocky
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #5 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:09pm
 
But some immigrants don't like bacon....
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Unforgiven
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #6 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:13pm
 
Frank wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:08pm:
Unforgiven wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:57pm:
Mattyfisk wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:49pm:
Yes, but these must be white immigrants, right Forgiven?

What could the tinted races possibly add to our kulture?


Money! Follow the money.

Herr Bert and other poverty-stricken, pommie, white n i g g e r s, keep sneaking in as back loading on those Middle East live sheep transporters for ten pounds each.

What brings an Indian like you to Australia if not money?


May I be Frank?

I'm not Indian by birth or ancestry.
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“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan
 
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Unforgiven
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #7 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:15pm
 
UnSubRocky wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:09pm:
But some immigrants don't like bacon....


I would not risk my life by standing between UnSubRocky and a plate of bacon.

There's more for you.
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UnSubRocky
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #8 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:17pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:15pm:
UnSubRocky wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:09pm:
But some immigrants don't like bacon....


I would not risk my life by standing between UnSubRocky and a plate of bacon.

There's more for you.


You would not risk your life coming out from behind your computer and facing the people you like to mouth off towards.
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Mattyfisk
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #9 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:18pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:13pm:
Frank wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:08pm:
Unforgiven wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:57pm:
Mattyfisk wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:49pm:
Yes, but these must be white immigrants, right Forgiven?

What could the tinted races possibly add to our kulture?


Money! Follow the money.

Herr Bert and other poverty-stricken, pommie, white n i g g e r s, keep sneaking in as back loading on those Middle East live sheep transporters for ten pounds each.

What brings an Indian like you to Australia if not money?


May I be Frank?

I'm not Indian by birth or ancestry.


Ah. You like Danish too, no?
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Mattyfisk
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #10 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:21pm
 
UnSubRocky wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:17pm:
Unforgiven wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:15pm:
UnSubRocky wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:09pm:
But some immigrants don't like bacon....


I would not risk my life by standing between UnSubRocky and a plate of bacon.

There's more for you.


You would not risk your life coming out from behind your computer and facing the people you like to mouth off towards.


True. The old boy's a Lutheran.

You wouldn't want to run into one of them in a dark alley.
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freediver
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #11 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:22pm
 
Unforgiven wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:26pm:
Bobby, migrants are going to take your job, eat your lunch, and take your house.

Some realization is finally dawning that immigration has masked a downward economic spiral in Australia.

If not for immigrants, Bruce would be playing the violin and Sheila would be tap-dancing on the street.

Has the lucky country become a big illusion with shrinking margins between minimum wage and average wage?

Will everyone be earning the minimum wage eventually?

2 million temporary visa holders is over the top. That's 8% of Australia's population.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/8194066-1x1-340x340.png

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/8194134-3x2-700x467.png

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/8194102-3x2-700x467.png

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/high-immigration-masks-australian-economic...

Quote:
High immigration masks Australian economic decline

Australia has ridden 25 years of economic growth without a recession. An amazing stretch of prosperity and a badge of honour that governments of all persuasions have tried to claim as their own.

Much has been written about the importance of the 1980s economic reforms in setting Australia up for this quarter century of expansion. A mining boom of historical proportions was also a massive help.

But often underappreciated is the role that migration has played. A huge increase in migration has fuelled headline GDP growth, keeping Australia technically out of recession. But, it's also masked a dirty secret, individuals haven't felt the benefit of this record run.

In fact, since the GFC, Australia has seen per capita income go backwards and it's only recent recovered.

The most recent numbers show a slight downturn in the long-term arrivals to departure ratio.

But this is a misleading picture. The truth is, migration to Australia is still proceeding at a record clip.

Much of it fuelled by "temporary" migrants, many of which are not captured in these numbers.

These include some students, 457 workers, working holiday and bridging visa holders - who are generally able to work and many of whom end up staying in the country permanently.

The below table shows that at 30 September 2016 there were nearly 2 million temporary visa holders within Australia. An increase of nearly 5 per cent in just one year.

Overall Australian population growth has averaged 1.7 per cent over the last decade - that's more than double the rate in the US over the same period.

Despite the political heat surrounding "boat people" and asylum seekers, there has been bipartisan support for a huge increase in migration to Australia for a long time.

It's a very simple equation: more people means more economic activity and that gives the government of the day an easy way to keep crowing on about good economic management.

But more people does not mean that the living standards of the existing population also rise. In fact, it can have detrimental economic effects for the people who are already here.

New workers mean greater competition for jobs, which suppresses wages. The most recent data shows that wages growth in Australia has hit a record low of just 1.9 per cent per annum.

More people also mean more demand for scarce goods and services. When there's already a tight supply of a particular good, it can mean huge price rises.

Population growth distorting housing, labour markets

Perhaps the most illustrative example is housing, where prices continue to rise sharply in Australia's two biggest magnets for new migrants, Sydney and Melbourne, putting them outside the reach of many first home buyers.

Sydney house prices have risen more than 70 per cent over the last five years.

"The unemployment rate at the moment is tracking at around 5.75 per cent - that's about 0.75 per cent higher than we would consider full employment, which is 5 per cent," said Gareth Aird, Senior Economist at the Commonwealth Bank.

"That means there's spare capacity in the labour market.

"So I think if you had a lower immigration rate at a time where there is spare capacity in the labour market that's not a bad thing.
"On top of that, we've got incredibly strong house price growth still, and if you've got more people you've got more upward pressure on house prices.

"So, at a time when house prices are still running pretty hot, some cooling in demand through lower immigration isn't a bad thing either."

Bigger pie, but more mouths eating from it

The reason why many people feel that they haven't benefitted from the Australia's long stretch of economic expansion, is quite simply because they haven't.

Their pay packets haven't gotten bigger while the cost of essential goods like shelter have risen.

High migration makes it nearly impossible for Australia to fall into recession.

The economy keeps getting bigger just because there are more people operating in it.

It's great for business, because it keeps wages low and there's more people to buy stuff from them.

It's great for governments because it means economic growth looks better than it otherwise would.

But it isn't necessarily good for ordinary workers.

As new Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has noted, the role of good economic policy should be to "raise living standards" - not just make the population, and therefore economy, bigger.


That article is saying that immigrants are making life more difficult for Australians.
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Unforgiven
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #12 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:27pm
 
freediver wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:22pm:
That article is saying that immigrants are making life more difficult for Australians.


By causing inflation with their spending.

What the article is implying is that GDP is artificially high due to immigrant spending impact and the population growth caused by immigrants.
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oh dear
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #13 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:29pm
 
Mattyfisk wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:49pm:
Yes, but these must be white immigrants, right Forgiven?

What could the tinted races possibly add to our kulture?


Karnal you made comments on another thread that pertained to newly arrived refugees needing to stay in major cities to get the help they needed to re settle in Australia.

I know of a southern sudanese family that spent nearly 10 years in a kenyan refugee camp and who were directly flown to my town there is a dedicated volunteer service that ensures they get all help possible I believe Bathurst is another that is well equipped to handle refugees.
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Unforgiven
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Re: Economy: Immigrants saving Australia's bacon
Reply #14 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:29pm
 
Mattyfisk wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:21pm:
UnSubRocky wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:17pm:
Unforgiven wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:15pm:
UnSubRocky wrote on Jan 19th, 2017 at 10:09pm:
But some immigrants don't like bacon....


I would not risk my life by standing between UnSubRocky and a plate of bacon.

There's more for you.


You would not risk your life coming out from behind your computer and facing the people you like to mouth off towards.


True. The old boy's a Lutheran.

You wouldn't want to run into one of them in a dark alley.


More likely to run into UnSubRocky in a brightly-illuminated hamburger joint. There's no food in dark alleys.
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« Last Edit: Jan 19th, 2017 at 11:17pm by Unforgiven »  

“I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours” Bob Dylan
 
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