Australian Politics Forum - 2016 hottest year on record

Prime Minister for Canyons Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 26906 Canberra Gender:	Re: 2016 hottest year on record Reply #30 - Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:48pm AuntieM wrote on Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:46pm: Bojack, where are you, geographically? Fail to see what that has to do with the discussion?
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lee

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #31 - Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:54pm

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:44pm:

And it still doesnt improve the ability to state its statistically significant or insignifcant.

Oh. You want me to add "out of the global average temperature of the 20th century of 13.9ºC"?

How did they arrive at a global average temperature in 1880 when they didn't measure the Arctic or Antarctic?

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Prime Minister for Canyons

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #32 - Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:54pm

lee wrote on Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:54pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:44pm:

And it still doesnt improve the ability to state its statistically significant or insignifcant.

Oh. You want me to add "out of the global average temperature of the 20th century of 13.9ºC"?

How did they arrive at a global average temperature in 1880 when they didn't measure the Arctic or Antarctic?

No. P value would be good.

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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16438 Gender:	Re: 2016 hottest year on record Reply #33 - Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:56pm Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Jan 20^th, 2017 at 12:54pm: No. P value would be good. Ask your friendly climate scientist. I'm sure they look at that. perhaps.
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lee

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #34 - Jan 20^th, 2017 at 1:10pm

"Now, in a Nature news article titled “Scientific method: Statistical errors,” Regina Nuzzo, a professor of statistics at Gallaudet University in Washington, DC, has ignited a statistical firestorm on the internet. The tweets are flying and the blogosphere exploding with commentary (including this one). Sadly, the specious use of statistics is nothing new. According to Nuzzo, the root of the problem is the surprisingly slippery nature of the P value, which is neither as reliable nor as objective as most scientists assume. An analysis of medical literature found that P values have emerged from many different kinds of experiments, and have been processed and filtered in so many ways, that there is no way that the underlying assumptions about their statistical properties could hold up."

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/perfidious-p-value-and-false-global-warm...

http://www.nature.com/news/scientific-method-statistical-errors-1.14700

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Prime Minister for Canyons

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #35 - Jan 20^th, 2017 at 2:34pm

lee wrote on Jan 20^th, 2017 at 1:10pm:

"Now, in a Nature news article titled “Scientific method: Statistical errors,” Regina Nuzzo, a professor of statistics at Gallaudet University in Washington, DC, has ignited a statistical firestorm on the internet. The tweets are flying and the blogosphere exploding with commentary (including this one). Sadly, the specious use of statistics is nothing new. According to Nuzzo, the root of the problem is the surprisingly slippery nature of the P value, which is neither as reliable nor as objective as most scientists assume. An analysis of medical literature found that P values have emerged from many different kinds of experiments, and have been processed and filtered in so many ways, that there is no way that the underlying assumptions about their statistical properties could hold up."

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/perfidious-p-value-and-false-global-warm...

http://www.nature.com/news/scientific-method-statistical-errors-1.14700

I am aware of the problems of P value, but if you act correctly its fine, and still better than saying oh look its insignificantly hotter than lastg year.

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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)

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Unforgiven

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #36 - Jan 20^th, 2017 at 9:03pm

No authoritative source is questioning the announcement by NASA and NOAA that 2016 is the hottest year ever recorded.

http://www.pulseheadlines.com/2016-officially-hottest-year-record/58155/

Quote:

2016 has become the hottest year on the earth since the temperatures started being tracked back in 1880, as it was announced Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization, a specialized agency of the United Nations. As well, 2016 has set global warm record for the third consecutive year. This was also announced by NASA and NOAA, who held a joint press conference to discuss the matter.

These agencies said that out of 17 years, 16 have shown heat records since 2000. The last time we had a cold year record was in 1911, more than a century ago. Temperatures in Earth during 2016 were 1.1 degree Celsius, or 1.98 degrees Fahrenheit, above the preindustrial levels. This means that we almost on the limit of warmth set by the Paris Agreement in December 2015.

One of the biggest concerns is the Arctic since it is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. While the global temperatures were about 1 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels, the Arctic’s reached 3 degrees Celsius. As well, the ice minimum records have been continuously broken in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. This is not a problem just for polar bears, but the entire population living in the Arctic.

To get to these results, the World Meteorological Organization compared different global temperature databases made by several institutions such as NOAA, NASA, the European Weather and Climate Center and the UK Met Office.

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lee

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #37 - Jan 20^th, 2017 at 9:23pm

oh, No. 0.04ºC +/- 0.15ºC on the back of tan El Nino. El Nino = natural variation. Wink

Did you see the sea surface temperature error bars +/-.0.16 Officially. Up from 0.01C officially in 2015.

But according to NOAA's figures to the EPA the error bars in 2015 were actually 0.59089524ºF or 0.32ºC.

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/sea-surface-temp_fig-1.csv

Should I believe the Press Release or the data? Wink

And don't forget 1997 was 62.45ºF, 2016 is reported to be 58.69ºF. That makes 2016 hotter than 1997 by minus 3.76ºF Wink

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« Last Edit: Jan 20^th, 2017 at 10:19pm by lee »

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The_Barnacle

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #38 - Jan 21^st, 2017 at 9:29am

Quote:

One of the biggest concerns is the Arctic since it is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. While the global temperatures were about 1 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels, the Arctic’s reached 3 degrees Celsius. As well, the ice minimum records have been continuously broken in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. This is not a problem just for polar bears, but the entire population living in the Arctic.

To get to these results, the World Meteorological Organization compared different global temperature databases made by several institutions such as NOAA, NASA, the European Weather and Climate Center and the UK Met Office.

The deniers like to cherry pick data or believe conspiracy theories but the retreat of the worlds glaciers is irrefutable proof that the planet is warming.

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Unforgiven Gold Member Offline I have sinned Posts: 8879 Gender:	Re: 2016 hottest year on record Reply #39 - Jan 21^st, 2017 at 10:53am The movie An Inconvenient Truth,2006, predicted the flooding of New York,2012, during superstorm Sandy 6 years before it happened. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2unzHvFPtY0
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lee

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #40 - Jan 21^st, 2017 at 11:19am

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 9:29am:

Quote:

One of the biggest concerns is the Arctic since it is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. While the global temperatures were about 1 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels, the Arctic’s reached 3 degrees Celsius. As well, the ice minimum records have been continuously broken in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. This is not a problem just for polar bears, but the entire population living in the Arctic.

To get to these results, the World Meteorological Organization compared different global temperature databases made by several institutions such as NOAA, NASA, the European Weather and Climate Center and the UK Met Office.

The deniers like to cherry pick data or believe conspiracy theories but the retreat of the worlds glaciers is irrefutable proof that the planet is warming.

You do realise they only compare it to 1979? Wink

How is that for cherry picking records?

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16438 Gender:	Re: 2016 hottest year on record Reply #41 - Jan 21^st, 2017 at 11:20am Unforgiven wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 10:53am: The movie An Inconvenient Truth,2006, predicted the flooding of New York,2012, during superstorm Sandy 6 years before it happened. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2unzHvFPtY0 So you believe a movie with known scientific errors?
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Unforgiven

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #42 - Jan 21^st, 2017 at 11:27am

lee wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 11:20am:

Unforgiven wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 10:53am:

The movie An Inconvenient Truth,2006, predicted the flooding of New York,2012, during superstorm Sandy 6 years before it happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2unzHvFPtY0

So you believe a movie with known scientific errors? Cheesy

I don't believe denizen lee, the master of obfuscation, misdirection, and the clouding if issues.

lee's score on predictions zero. The movies scored on many predictions including the New York flood.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16438 Gender:	Re: 2016 hottest year on record Reply #43 - Jan 21^st, 2017 at 11:32am Unforgiven wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 11:27am: The movies scored on many predictions Name some of these many predictions that have come true.
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Marla

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Re: 2016 hottest year on record
Reply #44 - Jan 21^st, 2017 at 11:40am

There goes lee spewing off his nonsense again.

Appears the latest temperature data confirms Mother Earth's long-term warming trend. Oh but wait a minnie here, lee will contest "weather phenomena" like El Nino and its bratty cousin La Nina. No question, both can cause positive or negative spikes in the temperature yet they are relatively small compared to the overall increase in global surface temperature(s) which have risen by an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century.

So keep on increasing amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (Trump will damn sure make that happen) and continue to blame everything else but human activity.

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