Bam
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longweekend58 wrote on Aug 6 th, 2016 at 5:37pm: Bam wrote on Aug 6 th, 2016 at 2:23pm: longweekend58 wrote on Aug 6 th, 2016 at 11:40am: I think you will see labor and liberal combine to force to historical method. I'm not so sure. The order of election method would favour the Coalition. ORDER OF ELECTION (states)NSW: 3 Coalition 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 ALP, 1 Grn, 1 ON, 1 LDP.VIC: 3 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Grn, 2 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Grn, 1 Hinch.QLD: 3 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 ON, 2 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Grn, 1 ON.WA: 3 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Grn, 2 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Grn, 1 ON.SA: 2 Coalition, 2 ALP, 2 NXT, 2 Coalition, 1 ALP, 1 NXT, 1 Grn, 1 FFP.TAS: 2 Coalition, 2 ALP, 1 Grn, 1 Lambie, 2 Coalition, 3 ALP, 1 Grn.TOTALS: 16 Coalition, 13 ALP, 3 Grn, 2 NXT, 1 ON, 1 Lambie, 12 Coalition, 11 ALP, 6 Grn, 3 ON, 1 LDP, 1 Hinch, 1 FFP, 1 NXT.This split would strongly favour the Coalition 16-12, the ALP slightly 13-11 and heavily disadvantage the Greens 3-6. Sum of these differences is 9. The s282 method would give Hinch and a NSW Green 6-year terms instead of a Victorian Liberal and NSW Labor candidate. This would give much fairer splits of 15-13 for the Coalition, 12-12 for ALP and 4-5 Greens. Sum of differences is 3 - clearly the s282 method is MUCH fairer. longweekend58 wrote on Aug 6 th, 2016 at 11:40am: We get rid of Hinch and at least one hanson senator quickly. That cant be bad. Hinch was elected 10th, so under the order of election mwthod he would get a 3-year term. Hinch would get a 6-year term under the recount method. The same for the One Nation candidates - I think three of them would end up with 3-year terms under both methods. Hanson herself may get a 6-year term under both methods. Labor would still. support the original method. The advatage to the libs of labor is slight at best and the disadvantage to both using s282 is substantial. Plus, it is in EVERYONEs benefit to get rid of Hanson and Hinch ASAP. As it turns out, you're right about Labor supporting the "original" order-elected method. Perhaps Labor has as much desire to clean out the Senate crossbench as the Liberals do - even if it makes little real difference: Hinch and a NSW Green (Rhiannon) gets the three-year terms instead of a Victorian Liberal (Ryan) and NSW Labor (O'Neill). It also makes no real difference to the One Nation Senators - Hanson would get a six-year term and the others a three-year term under both allocation methods.
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