Australian Politics Forum - Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating

Laugh till you cry

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Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
May 23^rd, 2016 at 9:44am

Warning signal: February 2016 was 0.33 C higher than previous record. March and April continued that trend.

"... The average increase from 1900 to 1958 was about 0.007 degrees Celsius per year. From 1958 to 2015 it doubled to 0.015 degrees Celsius per year, and from February 1998 to February 2016 it rose by an average of 0.025 degrees Celsius per year! ...".

http://www.businessinsider.com/global-warming-is-accelerating-2016-5
Quote:

Global warming accelerates: “so much for the pause”

Because 1998 was an outlier warm year due to a large El Niño effect in the Pacific, many subsequent years, including 2013, had lower global temperatures and led some to believe, or claim to believe, that global warming had ceased. But it turned out to be, after all, just another series...with a little steady signal often obscured by a very great deal of noise.

As it turned out, the below-trend 2013 was followed immediately by a modest new record in 2014. And then came the real test as a new powerful El Niño started to build up in 2015. Ten of the twelve months of 2015 set new all-time records, an unheard of event, and 2015 in total became a monster, not only the warmest year in recent millennia but by a record increment.

Yet, the early months of 2016, still under the influence of what had become one of the most powerful El Niño effects, showed temperature increases that were even more remarkable. This current El Niño has accelerated underlying warming caused by increasing CO2 – as all El Niños do – but this time the combined effect has been far ahead of scientific forecasts that in general remain dangerously conservative. January 2016 was the hottest January ever on the NASA series and by a new record amount. It was a full 0.22 degrees Celsius above the previous high for January. Then February became the new shocker, washing away that record by being 0.33 degrees Celsius above the previous February record. Most recently, March was once again the warmest ever March, although not quite by a record amount (see Exhibit 2).

The exhibit makes the scary point clear: global temperature is not just increasing, but accelerating. The average increase from 1900 to 1958 was about 0.007 degrees Celsius per year. From 1958 to 2015 it doubled to 0.015 degrees Celsius per year, and from February 1998 to February 2016 it rose by an average of 0.025 degrees Celsius per year! Time is truly running out.

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« Last Edit: May 23^rd, 2016 at 10:07am by Laugh till you cry »

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16400 Gender:	Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating Reply #1 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 10:58am Yeah, they blame El Nino for accelerating temperature rises. And it is still lower than NOAA's 1997 Global average temp of 62.45ºF. How scary us that?
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rabbitoh08

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #2 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 12:12pm

lee wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 10:58am:

Yeah, they blame El Nino for accelerating temperature rises.

And it is still lower than NOAA's 1997 Global average temp of 62.45ºF. How scary us that?

What is scary is your continual mindless denial.

2015 was the hottest year ever recorded by NOAA:

The State of the Climate November 2015 report noted that in order for 2015 to not become the warmest year in the 136-year period of record, the December global temperature would have to be at least 0.81°C (1.46°F) below the 20th century average—or 0.24°C (0.43°F) colder than the current record low December temperature of 1916. In fact, December 2015 was the warmest month of any month in the period of record, at 1.11°C (2.00°F) higher than the monthly average, breaking the previous all-time record set just two months ago in October 2015 by 0.12°C (0.21°F). This is the first time in the NOAA record that a monthly temperature departure from average exceeded 1°C or reached 2°F and the second widest margin by which an all-time monthly global temperature record has been broken. (February 1998 broke the previous record of March 1990 by 0.13°C / 0.23°F.)

With the contribution of such record warmth at year's end and with 10 months of the year record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), beating the previous record warmth of 2014 by 0.16°C (0.29°F). This is not only the highest calendar year temperature, but also the highest temperature for any 12-month period on record. The global temperatures in 2015 were strongly influenced by strong El Niño conditions that developed during the year.

The 2015 temperature also marks the largest margin by which an annual temperature record has been broken. Prior to this year, the largest margin occurred in 1998, when the annual temperature surpassed the record set in 1997 by 0.12°C (0.22°F). Incidentally, 1997 and 1998 were the last years in which a similarly strong El Niño was occurring. The annual temperature anomalies for 1997 and 1998 were 0.51°C (0.92°F) and 0.63°C (1.13°F), respectively, above the 20th century average, both well below the 2015 temperature departure.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201513

The 1997 figure of 62.45ºF you are quoting was based on a different baseline global temperature than that used today. 1997 doesn't even make the top 10 warmest ever years anymore.

the estimate for the baseline global temperature used in this study differed, and was warmer than, the baseline estimate (Jones et al., 1999) used currently. This report has been superseded by subsequent analyses.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/199713

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Laugh till you cry Gold Member Offline Posts: 13817 In your happy place Gender:	Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating Reply #3 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 1:01pm Lee likes to obfuscate and misdirect instead of providing relevant facts. This chart is quite convincing: CO2 concentration in atmosphere appears to be accelerating since 2015.
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lee

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #4 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 2:18pm

rabbitoh08 wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 12:12pm:

The 1997 figure of 62.45ºF you are quoting was based on a different baseline global temperature than that used today. 1997 doesn't even make the top 10 warmest ever years anymore.

the estimate for the baseline global temperature used in this study differed, and was warmer than, the baseline estimate (Jones et al., 1999) used currently. This report has been superseded by subsequent analyses.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/199713

Very good. Now you do know that applies to anomalies don’t you? You know, the difference between the baseline temperature and the absolute temperature? If you change the baseline temperature you change the anomaly. You don't change the absolute temperature.

NOAA gives the absolute temperature as 62.45ºF. Unless of course you think 62.45ºF is the anomaly.

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Laugh till you cry Gold Member Offline Posts: 13817 In your happy place Gender:	Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating Reply #5 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 3:43pm The temperature's rising and its not surprising: Where's the heat?
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lee

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #6 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 4:08pm

Wow. Ocean temperatures in zetajoules. It takes about a thousand zeta-joules to raise the upper ocean temperature by 1°C.

So 250 zetajoules would be about .25°C in about 3 decades. About 0.08°C/decade. Not no scary is it? What does that mean for the land component?

As for the CO2 graph, you do know correlation is not causation don't you? Why does the graph not show the natural CO2 by itself?

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« Last Edit: May 23^rd, 2016 at 4:13pm by lee »

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Laugh till you cry

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #7 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 5:41pm

lee wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 4:08pm:

Wow. Ocean temperatures in zetajoules. It takes about a thousand zeta-joules to raise the upper ocean temperature by 1°C.

So 250 zetajoules would be about .25°C in about 3 decades. About 0.08°C/decade. Not no scary is it? What does that mean for the land component?

As for the CO2 graph, you do know correlation is not causation don't you? Why does the graph not show the natural CO2 by itself?

You need to re-calibrate your slide rule and abacus. Your calculations are around 200% off.

You seem to be mistaken in your calculations according to US EPA which depicts ~ 0.7 C rise in 3 decades:

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lee

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #8 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 6:02pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 5:41pm:

You need to re-calibrate your slide rule and abacus. Your calculations are around 200% off.

You seem to be mistaken in your calculations according to US EPA which depicts ~ 0.7 C rise in 3 decades:

Your graph shows about 0.7ºF, not C,over 3 decades, which is about 0.39ºC over 3 decades. But errors creep in when you take the data, measured in degrees from the buoys, convert to zettajoules and then instead of taking your original temperature, convert it back to degrees again, so compounding any errors.

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Valkie

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #9 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 8:11pm

lee wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 6:02pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 5:41pm:

You need to re-calibrate your slide rule and abacus. Your calculations are around 200% off.

You seem to be mistaken in your calculations according to US EPA which depicts ~ 0.7 C rise in 3 decades:

Your graph shows about 0.7ºF, not C,over 3 decades, which is about 0.39ºC over 3 decades. But errors creep in when you take the data, measured in degrees from the buoys, convert to zettajoules and then instead of taking your original temperature, convert it back to degrees again, so compounding any errors.

I wonder just how many cumulative errors, equipment errors and just plain old human errors have crept into the data presented since the 1900s?

And we still are no closer to knowing what has caused the ice ages and heating cycles that this highly complex and very dynamic rock we live on.

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #10 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 11:47pm

lee wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 2:18pm:

rabbitoh08 wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 12:12pm:

The 1997 figure of 62.45ºF you are quoting was based on a different baseline global temperature than that used today. 1997 doesn't even make the top 10 warmest ever years anymore.

the estimate for the baseline global temperature used in this study differed, and was warmer than, the baseline estimate (Jones et al., 1999) used currently. This report has been superseded by subsequent analyses.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/199713

Very good. Now you do know that applies to anomalies don’t you? You know, the difference between the baseline temperature and the absolute temperature? If you change the baseline temperature you change the anomaly. You don't change the absolute temperature.

NOAA gives the absolute temperature as 62.45ºF. Unless of course you think 62.45ºF is the anomaly.

Your comprehension skills really are quite appalling aren't they. Perhaps you should try actually learning about the subject instead of just parrotting nonsense from silly denier blogs.

62.45ºF is not an "absolute" temperature. It is an estimated global temperature global temperature expressed in terms of an estimated anomaly above an estimated global baseline temperature.

In the 19 years since 1997, methods of estimating a baseline global temperature have changed, as have the means of estimating the global temperature anomaly. Continually quoting that 1997 figure is simply moronic - comparing apples with oranges.

(...this is where Le now rushes of to find his tin-foil hat and tell us all about evil scientists manipulating figures).

Seriously Lee - you really have no idea. Why you continue to make a goose of yourself like this is beyond me.

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rabbitoh08

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #11 - May 23^rd, 2016 at 11:52pm

Valkie wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 8:11pm:

lee wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 6:02pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 5:41pm:

You need to re-calibrate your slide rule and abacus. Your calculations are around 200% off.

You seem to be mistaken in your calculations according to US EPA which depicts ~ 0.7 C rise in 3 decades:

Your graph shows about 0.7ºF, not C,over 3 decades, which is about 0.39ºC over 3 decades. But errors creep in when you take the data, measured in degrees from the buoys, convert to zettajoules and then instead of taking your original temperature, convert it back to degrees again, so compounding any errors.

I wonder just how many cumulative errors, equipment errors and just plain old human errors have crept into the data presented since the 1900s?

Quite a lot. I suggest you actually read some scientific literature on the subject where the errors are identified, quantified and discussed - and ignore Lees ignorant ranting

Valkie wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 8:11pm:

And we still are no closer to knowing what has caused the ice ages and heating cycles that this highly complex and very dynamic rock we live on.

If you actually read some scientific literature on the subject - perhaps it would not be such a mystery to you.

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Valkie

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #12 - May 24^th, 2016 at 7:32am

rabbitoh08 wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 11:52pm:

Valkie wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 8:11pm:

lee wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 6:02pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 5:41pm:

You need to re-calibrate your slide rule and abacus. Your calculations are around 200% off.

You seem to be mistaken in your calculations according to US EPA which depicts ~ 0.7 C rise in 3 decades:

Your graph shows about 0.7ºF, not C,over 3 decades, which is about 0.39ºC over 3 decades. But errors creep in when you take the data, measured in degrees from the buoys, convert to zettajoules and then instead of taking your original temperature, convert it back to degrees again, so compounding any errors.

I wonder just how many cumulative errors, equipment errors and just plain old human errors have crept into the data presented since the 1900s?

Quite a lot. I suggest you actually read some scientific literature on the subject where the errors are identified, quantified and discussed - and ignore Lees ignorant ranting

Valkie wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 8:11pm:

And we still are no closer to knowing what has caused the ice ages and heating cycles that this highly complex and very dynamic rock we live on.

If you actually read some scientific literature on the subject - perhaps it would not be such a mystery to you.

Please, Please enlighten me?
I would really like to know what has been the reason for the Earth's cyclic climate change.

It should be quite simple to explain in simple words so that an uneducated mug like myself can comprehend, surely.
What has caused the Ice ages?
What has allowed the ice ages to retreat to the tropical paradise we now have?

If it is all that understandable surely you can let me in on the secret.

Because buddy, from what I have read, studied and attempted to understand, NO ONE can explain with any undeniable and inarguable way why it has happened and when it will happen again.

So, please enlighten me...........I really want to know........Truely

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I HAVE A DREAM
A WONDERFUL, PEACEFUL, BEAUTIFUL DREAM.
A DREAM OF A WORLD THAT HAS NEVER KNOWN ISLAM
A DREAM OF A WORLD FREE FROM THE HORRORS OF ISLAM.

SUCH A WONDERFUL DREAM
O HOW I WISH IT WERE TRU

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lee

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #13 - May 24^th, 2016 at 12:14pm

rabbitoh08 wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 11:47pm:

Your comprehension skills really are quite appalling aren't they. Perhaps you should try actually learning about the subject instead of just parrotting nonsense from silly denier blogs.

62.45ºF is not an "absolute" temperature. It is an estimated global temperature global temperature expressed in terms of an estimated anomaly above an estimated global baseline temperature.

'The important point is that the trends that emerge from year to year and decade to decade are remarkably similar—more so than the averages themselves. This is why global warming is usually described in terms of anomalies (variations above and below the average for a baseline set of years) rather than in absolute temperature.'

https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/what-average-global-temperature-now

They don't "usually" quote absolute temperatures, not that they can't. NOOA uses 62.45ºF as an "absolute" temperature; differentiating it from a "temperature anomaly".

Perhaps you should try some "larnin'"

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php

'Absolute
NetCDF
(1MB)
Absolute temperatures for the base period 1961-90 on a 5� by 5� grid (Jones et al., 1999)'

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

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« Last Edit: May 24^th, 2016 at 12:34pm by lee »

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Ajax

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Re: Global warming: Temperature rise is accelerating
Reply #14 - May 24^th, 2016 at 6:03pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on May 23^rd, 2016 at 9:44am:

Warning signal: February 2016 was 0.33 C higher than previous record. March and April continued that trend.

"... The average increase from 1900 to 1958 was about 0.007 degrees Celsius per year. From 1958 to 2015 it doubled to 0.015 degrees Celsius per year, and from February 1998 to February 2016 it rose by an average of 0.025 degrees Celsius per year! ...".

http://www.businessinsider.com/global-warming-is-accelerating-2016-5
Quote:

Global warming accelerates: “so much for the pause”

Because 1998 was an outlier warm year due to a large El Niño effect in the Pacific, many subsequent years, including 2013, had lower global temperatures and led some to believe, or claim to believe, that global warming had ceased. But it turned out to be, after all, just another series...with a little steady signal often obscured by a very great deal of noise.

As it turned out, the below-trend 2013 was followed immediately by a modest new record in 2014. And then came the real test as a new powerful El Niño started to build up in 2015. Ten of the twelve months of 2015 set new all-time records, an unheard of event, and 2015 in total became a monster, not only the warmest year in recent millennia but by a record increment.

Yet, the early months of 2016, still under the influence of what had become one of the most powerful El Niño effects, showed temperature increases that were even more remarkable. This current El Niño has accelerated underlying warming caused by increasing CO2 – as all El Niños do – but this time the combined effect has been far ahead of scientific forecasts that in general remain dangerously conservative. January 2016 was the hottest January ever on the NASA series and by a new record amount. It was a full 0.22 degrees Celsius above the previous high for January. Then February became the new shocker, washing away that record by being 0.33 degrees Celsius above the previous February record. Most recently, March was once again the warmest ever March, although not quite by a record amount (see Exhibit 2).

The exhibit makes the scary point clear: global temperature is not just increasing, but accelerating. The average increase from 1900 to 1958 was about 0.007 degrees Celsius per year. From 1958 to 2015 it doubled to 0.015 degrees Celsius per year, and from February 1998 to February 2016 it rose by an average of 0.025 degrees Celsius per year! Time is truly running out.

Show me the smoking gun that proves man's emissions of CO2 are causing the temperature to rise......!!!!!

And I'm not talking about the failed computer models that have been proven wrong by observation.

Today we have some of the lowest temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels in our history.

And like many times before in our history what goes down will go up etc etc.

The end is nigh and a $2 trillion dollar carbon derivatives market will be our saviour......!!!!

Wake up and smell the CO2 champ.

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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