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Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic (Read 3552 times)
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Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Feb 7th, 2016 at 7:37pm
 
The Greens have chosen a female native title lawyer to contest Tanya Plibersek's federal electorate of Sydney as the party prepares to target what it believes are five winnable lower house seats in NSW and Victoria this year.

Sylvie Ellsmore, a lawyer and Marrickville councillor, won preselection for the Greens on Thursday night.

Ms Ellsmore is a former NSW Greens campaign co-ordinator who worked for a decade as an Indigenous rights advocate.

She prevailed over Bruce Knobloch who had originally set his sights on contesting Anthony Albanese's seat of Grayndler before the Greens chose former fire brigade union boss Jim Casey as its candidate.

The Greens will put resources into winning the inner-city seat but Labor sources said Ms Plibersek, Labor's deputy leader and a touted future ALP leader, should easily see off Ms Ellsmore's challenge.

"We're untroubled by Sydney, we're very comfortable," said a senior Labor source.

The Greens believe they will comfortably retain Adam Bandt's seat of Melbourne and have drawn up a hit list of target seats.

In Victoria, those are the Labor-held seats of Batman and Wills of David Feeney and the retiring Kelvin Thomson, respectively.

Voting results show Greens candidates, Alex Bhatal in Batman and Samantha Ratnam in Wills, would have to overcome significant margins but the Greens' leadership in Canberra is confident they can go close.

Grayndler is a target seat in Sydney where the Greens have state MPs in Balmain and Newtown, both within the redrawn Grayndler electorate.

The Greens believe they also have a realistic hope in the north coast NSW seat of Richmond where the party also had success at a state level amid widespread community angst over coal seam gas.

It remains to be seen whether the CSG issue will be running as hot as a federal issue after energy giant AGL announced last week it would withdraw from the sector. Santos still has plans to develop CSG wells in northern NSW.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/greens-pit-native-title-lawyer-against-plibersek-as-pa...
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stunspore
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #1 - Feb 7th, 2016 at 8:49pm
 
I wonder if Abbott will lose his seat like Howard.
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #2 - Feb 7th, 2016 at 9:36pm
 
Quote:
Sylvie Ellsmore, a lawyer and Marrickville councillor


....is she one of those anti-semitic Nazis from Marrickville council?

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Its time
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #3 - Feb 7th, 2016 at 9:48pm
 
Swagman wrote on Feb 7th, 2016 at 9:36pm:
Quote:
Sylvie Ellsmore, a lawyer and Marrickville councillor


....is she one of those anti-semitic Nazis from Marrickville council?



Where did that assumption come from?
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Swagman
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #4 - Feb 7th, 2016 at 10:10pm
 
Its time wrote on Feb 7th, 2016 at 9:48pm:
Swagman wrote on Feb 7th, 2016 at 9:36pm:
Quote:
Sylvie Ellsmore, a lawyer and Marrickville councillor


....is she one of those anti-semitic Nazis from Marrickville council?



Where did that assumption come from?


Don't you remember the boycott Jewish businesses campaign by the Greens? 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-israel-ban-bid-is-anti-s...

Quote:
NSW Attorney-General Greg Smith has accused the Greens of echoing the worst aspects of historical anti-Semitism in Europe in their bid to ban economic, sporting and cultural contacts with Israel.

In a speech at Sydney University today, Mr Smith will argue the party's support for the BDS campaign reveals "an ugly underbelly of the Australian Greens' agenda".

"The BDS resolution against Jewish businesses passed in December 2010 by the Marrickville Council and, more recently, violent activist protests against Jewish businesses, in particular Max Brenner chocolate and coffee stores, are eerily reminiscent of Jewish pogroms of earlier times," he will say.
.
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Armchair_Politician
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #5 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 5:52am
 
____ wrote on Feb 7th, 2016 at 7:37pm:
The Greens have chosen a female native title lawyer to contest Tanya Plibersek's federal electorate of Sydney as the party prepares to target what it believes are five winnable lower house seats in NSW and Victoria this year.

Sylvie Ellsmore, a lawyer and Marrickville councillor, won preselection for the Greens on Thursday night.

Ms Ellsmore is a former NSW Greens campaign co-ordinator who worked for a decade as an Indigenous rights advocate.

She prevailed over Bruce Knobloch who had originally set his sights on contesting Anthony Albanese's seat of Grayndler before the Greens chose former fire brigade union boss Jim Casey as its candidate.

The Greens will put resources into winning the inner-city seat but Labor sources said Ms Plibersek, Labor's deputy leader and a touted future ALP leader, should easily see off Ms Ellsmore's challenge.

"We're untroubled by Sydney, we're very comfortable," said a senior Labor source.

The Greens believe they will comfortably retain Adam Bandt's seat of Melbourne and have drawn up a hit list of target seats.

In Victoria, those are the Labor-held seats of Batman and Wills of David Feeney and the retiring Kelvin Thomson, respectively.

Voting results show Greens candidates, Alex Bhatal in Batman and Samantha Ratnam in Wills, would have to overcome significant margins but the Greens' leadership in Canberra is confident they can go close.

Grayndler is a target seat in Sydney where the Greens have state MPs in Balmain and Newtown, both within the redrawn Grayndler electorate.

The Greens believe they also have a realistic hope in the north coast NSW seat of Richmond where the party also had success at a state level amid widespread community angst over coal seam gas.

It remains to be seen whether the CSG issue will be running as hot as a federal issue after energy giant AGL announced last week it would withdraw from the sector. Santos still has plans to develop CSG wells in northern NSW.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/greens-pit-native-title-lawyer-against-plibersek-as-pa...


The last thing the people of NSW need is a halfwit Green from Marrickville council representing them. Lets hope she comes dead-last!
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Scott Morrison DID wipe the floor with Bull Shitten!!! Smiley Smiley Smiley
 
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #6 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 5:55am
 
The Australian is in correct. It's aimed at Israeli businesses, not Jewish.

http://bdsmovement.net/

Marrickville council abandons support for BDS campaign

By Doug Lorimer
2011


After a rowdy three-hour meeting attended by about 70 banner-wielding observers, the 12-member Marrickville municipal council in Sydney’s inner-west voted on April 19 to rescind a motion originally adopted by 10-2 on December 14 to support the international campaign to boycott, sanctions and disinvestment (BDS) of Israel. The council passed a motion ― with the support of three Greens, four Labor and two independent councillors —that resolved not to pursue the BDS “in any form”.

http://directaction.org.au/issue_32_may_2011/marrickville_council_abandons_suppo...
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #7 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:18am
 
Armchair_Politician wrote on Feb 8th, 2016 at 5:52am:
____ wrote on Feb 7th, 2016 at 7:37pm:
The Greens have chosen a female native title lawyer to contest Tanya Plibersek's federal electorate of Sydney as the party prepares to target what it believes are five winnable lower house seats in NSW and Victoria this year.

Sylvie Ellsmore, a lawyer and Marrickville councillor, won preselection for the Greens on Thursday night.

Ms Ellsmore is a former NSW Greens campaign co-ordinator who worked for a decade as an Indigenous rights advocate.

She prevailed over Bruce Knobloch who had originally set his sights on contesting Anthony Albanese's seat of Grayndler before the Greens chose former fire brigade union boss Jim Casey as its candidate.

The Greens will put resources into winning the inner-city seat but Labor sources said Ms Plibersek, Labor's deputy leader and a touted future ALP leader, should easily see off Ms Ellsmore's challenge.

"We're untroubled by Sydney, we're very comfortable," said a senior Labor source.

The Greens believe they will comfortably retain Adam Bandt's seat of Melbourne and have drawn up a hit list of target seats.

In Victoria, those are the Labor-held seats of Batman and Wills of David Feeney and the retiring Kelvin Thomson, respectively.

Voting results show Greens candidates, Alex Bhatal in Batman and Samantha Ratnam in Wills, would have to overcome significant margins but the Greens' leadership in Canberra is confident they can go close.

Grayndler is a target seat in Sydney where the Greens have state MPs in Balmain and Newtown, both within the redrawn Grayndler electorate.

The Greens believe they also have a realistic hope in the north coast NSW seat of Richmond where the party also had success at a state level amid widespread community angst over coal seam gas.

It remains to be seen whether the CSG issue will be running as hot as a federal issue after energy giant AGL announced last week it would withdraw from the sector. Santos still has plans to develop CSG wells in northern NSW.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/greens-pit-native-title-lawyer-against-plibersek-as-pa...


The last thing the people of NSW need is a halfwit Green from Marrickville council representing them. Lets hope she comes dead-last!


Second last. Worst thing would be a brain dead lib representing them.
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #8 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:22am
 
Swagman wrote on Feb 7th, 2016 at 9:36pm:
Quote:
Sylvie Ellsmore, a lawyer and Marrickville councillor


....is she one of those anti-semitic Nazis from Marrickville council?




I often think they end up Greens because no one else will have them....I think a lot of people are waking up to the fact that the Greens.. are a nowheresville party....just give them a smiggin of Power like a senate seat and they abuse it...
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #9 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:28am
 
Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic

Can't see them getting any this time. The one they got was an anomaly due to Liberal preferences.

Can't see the Liberals putting another green into the lower house, they probably thought that 1 was funny.
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #10 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:34am
 
Removal of the likes of Plibersek and Albanese ... and you think the coalition wouldn't like to remove Shorten's replacement after the election.

Who will replace Shorten, if Greens attain these 5 seats plus possibly more.
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #11 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:37am
 
____ wrote on Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:34am:
Removal of the likes of Plibersek and Albanese ... and you think the coalition wouldn't like to remove Shorten's replacement after the election.

Who will replace Shorten, if Greens attain these 5 seats plus possibly more.


Costs nothing to dream,eh. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #12 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:40am
 
Quote:
if Greens attain these 5 seats plus possibly more.

Blind optimism or delusion?
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #13 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:42am
 
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Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic

For the sake of balance, we should also discuss the 7 losable seats the Greens are contesting at the next election including 6 upper house seats. If the seat is up for election, it is losable.

Some of these seats are fairly safe. Victoria's and Tasmania's Senate seats were won by the Greens in 2010 with a full quota of primary votes and they will go close in Western Australia. Bandt is a good chance of holding Melbourne.

But it's safe to say that the Greens will not hold all the Senate seats that they won in 2010. Here are the Greens' primary votes in each state's Senate voting in 2010.

NSW: 10.69% (Lee Rhiannon)
Vic: 14.69% (Richard Di Natale)
Qld: 12.76% (Larissa Waters)
WA: 13.96% (Rachel Siewert)
SA: 13.30% (Penny Wright)
Tas: 20.27% (Christine Milne)

The Greens won a full quota (14.29%) of primary votes only in Victoria and Tasmania. In the other states, the Greens relied on preferences to win the seat.

New South Wales - They will need to poll well to hold here. They had their lowest percentage of the primary vote in 2010 in this state. NSW is a state that has the most minor parties on the Senate ballot paper so the lower vote for the Greens can be expected. They will need a good flow of preferences to hold here, and the NSW seat is at risk.

Queensland - Historically, this is the Greens' weakest state. They are unlikely to hold their Senate seat here.

Western Australia - Historically, a strong state for the Greens. They should hold their seat on preferences here.

South Australia - An interesting state to watch. Nick Xenophon's Team will take votes from across the political spectrum and this will impact on the primary vote for the other parties, including the Greens. The Greens will need to rely heavily on Labor preferences to hold.

The results will depend heavily on how well the Greens poll compared to 2010. In the 2010 election, the Greens were the major beneficiary of an anti-Labor protest vote. The Greens won't have that going for them this time. They are unlikely to hold all 6 Senate seats. They will be in trouble in the Senate contests in NSW, Qld and SA and will be lucky to win more than one seat in these three states combined.

Finally, we should also consider the Senate race in the ACT. The Greens have historically polled well in the ACT and are often a good chance of taking the second ACT seat from the Liberals. The Liberals usually poll around a quota (33.33%) in the ACT and win on preferences.

ACT Senate results - 2010: ALP 40.84%, Lib 33.35%, Greens 22.92% (2 others 2.89%)
ACT Senate results - 2013: ALP 34.44%, Lib 33.08%, Greens 19.27% (11 others 13.21%)

The primary vote for the Liberals for the ACT Senate seats is holding up well at present, but the next time there's a voter backlash against the Liberals - such as a change of government - their ACT Senate seat will be in jeopardy and the Greens could take it instead. On current polling, that's not likely at the next election, but it is a future trend that bears watching.
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Re: Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
Reply #14 - Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:42am
 
____ wrote on Feb 8th, 2016 at 7:34am:
Removal of the likes of Plibersek and Albanese ... and you think the coalition wouldn't like to remove Shorten's replacement after the election.

Who will replace Shorten, if Greens attain these 5 seats plus possibly more.


The Greens playing that game will eventually end in tears for them. Using the Liberals to undermine some of the best Labor representatives isn't really in anyone's interests.

The Greens trying to pick up some crumbs by making their political enemy very much stronger is not a good result for them or Australia, we can only hope that voters understand what is going on if they try this rank political game.
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