Quote:Greens ~ 5 Winnable Lower Seats In NSW & Vic
For the sake of balance, we should also discuss the 7 losable seats the Greens are contesting at the next election including 6 upper house seats. If the seat is up for election, it is losable.
Some of these seats are fairly safe. Victoria's and Tasmania's Senate seats were won by the Greens in 2010 with a full quota of primary votes and they will go close in Western Australia. Bandt is a good chance of holding Melbourne.
But it's safe to say that the Greens will not hold all the Senate seats that they won in 2010. Here are the Greens' primary votes in each state's Senate voting in 2010.
NSW: 10.69% (Lee Rhiannon)
Vic: 14.69% (Richard Di Natale)
Qld: 12.76% (Larissa Waters)
WA: 13.96% (Rachel Siewert)
SA: 13.30% (Penny Wright)
Tas: 20.27% (Christine Milne)
The Greens won a full quota (14.29%) of primary votes only in Victoria and Tasmania. In the other states, the Greens relied on preferences to win the seat.
New South Wales - They will need to poll well to hold here. They had their lowest percentage of the primary vote in 2010 in this state. NSW is a state that has the most minor parties on the Senate ballot paper so the lower vote for the Greens can be expected. They will need a good flow of preferences to hold here, and the NSW seat is at risk.
Queensland - Historically, this is the Greens' weakest state. They are unlikely to hold their Senate seat here.
Western Australia - Historically, a strong state for the Greens. They should hold their seat on preferences here.
South Australia - An interesting state to watch. Nick Xenophon's Team will take votes from across the political spectrum and this will impact on the primary vote for the other parties, including the Greens. The Greens will need to rely heavily on Labor preferences to hold.
The results will depend heavily on how well the Greens poll compared to 2010. In the 2010 election, the Greens were the major beneficiary of an anti-Labor protest vote. The Greens won't have that going for them this time. They are unlikely to hold all 6 Senate seats. They will be in trouble in the Senate contests in NSW, Qld and SA and will be lucky to win more than one seat in these three states combined.
Finally, we should also consider the Senate race in the ACT. The Greens have historically polled well in the ACT and are often a good chance of taking the second ACT seat from the Liberals. The Liberals usually poll around a quota (33.33%) in the ACT and win on preferences.
ACT Senate results - 2010: ALP 40.84%, Lib 33.35%, Greens 22.92% (2 others 2.89%)
ACT Senate results - 2013: ALP 34.44%, Lib 33.08%, Greens 19.27% (11 others 13.21%)
The primary vote for the Liberals for the ACT Senate seats is holding up well at present, but the next time there's a voter backlash against the Liberals - such as a change of government - their ACT Senate seat will be in jeopardy and the Greens could take it instead. On current polling, that's not likely at the next election, but it is a future trend that bears watching.