Australian Politics Forum - Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated

Sun Tzu

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #90 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 2:04pm

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 12:34pm:

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 9:34am:

1. "What if they learned that the climate models are unskilled,"

Is that even possible? Did a school child write that?

Please provide a link to show climate models are skilled

Lazy bastard. Read it yourself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model

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lee

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #91 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 3:26pm

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 2:04pm:

Lazy bastard. Read it yourself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model

Nothing there about how skilled/unskilled they are.

Seeing as the IPCC AR5 in chapter 9 had to rely on "expert judgment" rather than model output, it would seem they are unskilled. Perhaps they need upskilling?

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Sun Tzu

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #92 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 3:46pm

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 3:26pm:

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 2:04pm:

Lazy bastard. Read it yourself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model

Nothing there about how skilled/unskilled they are.

Seeing as the IPCC AR5 in chapter 9 had to rely on "expert judgment" rather than model output, it would seem they are unskilled. Perhaps they need upskilling?

Very often the output from models, algorithms, computers and their programs is data and it needs the interpretation of a human mind to turn it into information.

People are not recruited from the nearest bar for this type of work.

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Ajax

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #93 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 3:56pm

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 3:46pm:

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 3:26pm:

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 2:04pm:

Lazy bastard. Read it yourself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model

Nothing there about how skilled/unskilled they are.

Seeing as the IPCC AR5 in chapter 9 had to rely on "expert judgment" rather than model output, it would seem they are unskilled. Perhaps they need upskilling?

Very often the output from models, algorithms, computers and their programs is data and it needs the interpretation of a human mind to turn it into information.

People are not recruited from the nearest bar for this type of work.

The IPCC models have been proven wrong by observation, they predicted what would happen according to their models and they have got it wrong over estimating how hot it would be by the end of the century.

If you do not acknowledge this then you are just following them blindly.

Do you want to be taxed on misinformation...???

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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lee

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #94 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 4:13pm

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 3:46pm:

Very often the output from models, algorithms, computers and their programs is data and it needs the interpretation of a human mind to turn it into information.

People are not recruited from the nearest bar for this type of work.

When the climate models use "forcings", the output cannot be data. It is speculation based on the hope that all of the "forcings" are true.

'We summarize here forcing datasets used in GISS global climate models over the years. Note that the forcings are estimates that may be revised as new information or better understandings of the source data become available.'

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/

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Sun Tzu

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #95 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 4:44pm

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 4:13pm:

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 3:46pm:

Very often the output from models, algorithms, computers and their programs is data and it needs the interpretation of a human mind to turn it into information.

People are not recruited from the nearest bar for this type of work.

When the climate models use "forcings", the output cannot be data. It is speculation based on the hope that all of the "forcings" are true.

'We summarize here forcing datasets used in GISS global climate models over the years. Note that the forcings are estimates that may be revised as new information or better understandings of the source data become available.'

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/

Maybe its like constipation. If you don't force it the data is trapped and brutalized in endless cycles of computations.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 19955 Gender:	Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated Reply #96 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 4:58pm Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 4:44pm: Maybe its like constipation. If you don't force it the data is trapped and brutalized in endless cycles of computations. For that to happen, there would have to be data in the first place.
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random

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #97 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 6:53pm

lee wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 12:34pm:

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 9:34am:

1. "What if they learned that the climate models are unskilled,"

Is that even possible? Did a school child write that?

Please provide a link to show climate models are skilled

What are you 12 and bottom of the class in English? Models cannot have skills. Anyone who does not think this is funny is not capable of intelligent discourse. Roll Eyes

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lee

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #98 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:08pm

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 6:53pm:

What are you 12 and bottom of the class in English? Models cannot have skills. Anyone who does not think this is funny is not capable of intelligent discourse

Engineering models are wonderfully skilful. Don't you think engineering models of bridges, aeroplanes etc work really well? They have some predictive quality. If you put in rubbish figures, they will generally be outside spec, and tell you this bird won't fly. I guess they don't use forcings.

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random Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2637 Gender:	Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated Reply #99 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:30pm Please tell me what 'skills' these climate models have?
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lee

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #100 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:38pm

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 7:30pm:

Please tell me what 'skills' these climate models have?

These climate models have no skills, and that is precisely the problem.

And then they use these climate models, from WG1, to try to convince people that the outputs provide some insight into the future. Not only for WG1 but also WG2 and WG3.

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random Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2637 Gender:	Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated Reply #101 - Jan 9^th, 2016 at 10:10pm Blah blah fcukin blah.
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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11064 Australia Gender:	Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated Reply #102 - Jan 10^th, 2016 at 7:59am random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 10:10pm: Blah blah fcukin blah. When you're trying to defend the Anthropogenic Global Warming Religion who's armour is so full of holes, that's about all you can say.....!!!!! Pray to St. Gore for enlightenment.
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random

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #103 - Jan 10^th, 2016 at 8:38am

Ajax wrote on Jan 10^th, 2016 at 7:59am:

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 10:10pm:

Blah blah fcukin blah.

When you're trying to defend the Anthropogenic Global Warming Religion who's armour is so full of holes, that's about all you can say.....!!!!!

Pray to St. Gore for enlightenment.

That's what it was. Just blah.

No serious intent to discuss or debate, just critical 'filler'. Just words intended to sow doubt for sheeple who do not know any better.

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lee

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Re: Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 underestimated
Reply #104 - Jan 10^th, 2016 at 11:37am

random wrote on Jan 10^th, 2016 at 8:38am:

Ajax wrote on Jan 10^th, 2016 at 7:59am:

random wrote on Jan 9^th, 2016 at 10:10pm:

Blah blah fcukin blah.

When you're trying to defend the Anthropogenic Global Warming Religion who's armour is so full of holes, that's about all you can say.....!!!!!

Pray to St. Gore for enlightenment.

That's what it was. Just blah.

No serious intent to discuss or debate, just critical 'filler'. Just words intended to sow doubt for sheeple who do not know any better.

Ah, well. As you are so enlightened, please enlighten us.

What skills do climate models have?

Sun Tzu gave us an answer, he thinks climate models have skills. Is he right or wrong?

As you clearly don't consider yourself a 'sheeple', you must have an answer.

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