That is a big fall. Some is probably due to resource prices, especially oil which may be the main cause for the dip in the curve around end 2014. Trade decline portends low consumer demand and very slow recovery.
The chart below shows trade down by 40% since the peaks of 2008 and 2010 either side of the 2009 collapse due to GFC.
You can bet that arms and munitions sales are not down.
Some of the problems are caused by USA sanctions against a large number of countries, especially Russia.
A big effect will be the diminished capital investment by oil companies in response to low oil prices. Similarly for other resource investments.
Such trends are not easily reversed and the outlook for 2016 and 2017 will be low growth rates by low consumer demand and low investment.
http://atimes.com/2015/03/world-exports-down-10-yoy-in-dollar-volume-is-bad-news... Quote:It’s not the Great Crash of 2008, but it’s worrying: Year on year, world trade was down more than 10% between January 2014 and January 2015. That’s mostly price movements, to be sure, but the collapse of export prices in dollar terms reduces capacity to service dollar debt. Deficit = death in this kind of market. Stick with surplus-earning countries like China.
That’s why we keep seeing explosions in emerging market debt, including bonds widely held by mutual funds. Yield piggyness motivated by collapsing yields for safe instruments drove investors into the emerging market morass, which turns out to be loaded with land mines. Banco Mercantil do Brasil, one of Brazil’s largest lenders, saw its bond prices collapse to below half of face value after setting aside enormous amounts for loan losses.