Australian Politics Forum - The state of Queensland.

Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #195 - Jan 5^th, 2015 at 10:17pm Aussie wrote on Jan 5^th, 2015 at 10:15pm: An early election????? Link. Maybe. Let's see tomorrow. Interesting ... perhaps he's considering going early to save the furniture?
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John Smith Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 77087 Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #196 - Jan 5^th, 2015 at 10:20pm Bam wrote on Jan 5^th, 2015 at 10:17pm: Aussie wrote on Jan 5^th, 2015 at 10:15pm: An early election????? Link. Maybe. Let's see tomorrow. Interesting ... perhaps he's considering going early to save the furniture? or, as I said in another thread, he's trying to stave off a leadership challenge
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Aussie Gold Member Online OzPolitic Posts: 39228 Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #197 - Jan 5^th, 2015 at 10:35pm Sorry, I was not looking for discussion here Mr Smith. Was just up-dating it. Hopefully once the election is called, this Thread might be useful for discussion for the duration.
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Ex Dame Pansi Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24168	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #198 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 8:11am An early election????? It looks almost certain.
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Bam

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #199 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 8:19am

My prediction, copied from another thread:

Bam wrote on Dec 30^th, 2014 at 9:44am:

polite_gandalf wrote on Dec 30^th, 2014 at 8:28am:

so its looking like an LNP win - but with the premier losing his seat...

I agree; that is the most likely scenario. The opinion polling has been interesting, it has had the ALP level and even ahead, not bad for a party that got soundly defeated less than three years ago. The ALP could take back government if they run a solid campaign. I expect the LNP to hold on narrowly, losing about 30-35 seats, and the first order of business will be choosing a new Premier after Newman loses Ashgrove to Kate Jones.

If my prediction is correct, here are the implications. I assume that the seats lost are compared to the seats won by the LNP at the last election (78). They have lost five MPs since the election. The Queensland parliament has 89 seats and the majority is 45.

If my prediction is accurate, it looks as if Labor will take back almost all of the LNP's majority.

If the LNP lose 30 seats, they would hold 48 seats, which would be enough for a majority. It won't be a comfortable majority though.

If they lose 35 seats, they would hold 43 seats and would no longer have a majority. Labor would also be short of a majority. In this scenario the crossbench would be helping to form a government. Because the crossbench would be overwhelmingly conservative (KAP, PUP and maybe one or two independents), they would be likely to support the LNP.

The middle is also interesting. If the government ends up with a slender majority, the new Premier (Newman will lose Ashgrove) will want to seek a snap election to gain a more workable majority whenever the opportunity presents itself.

I expect the result to be at the lower end of this range (30 or 31).

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Aussie

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #200 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 2:05pm

The Sunshine Coast has six seats, ignoring the hinterland areas ~ we have Buderim, Caloundra, Kawana, Maroochydore, Nicklin and Noosa. All are held by the LNP except Nicklin, held by long term Independant Peter Wellington.

Wellington has been associated closely with PUP but has been quite coy (even a little too cute if you think like me) about actually declaring him self a PUP Member. He has managed to walk a tight rope pretty successfully. He wants PUP support, but he has been reluctant to actually join. Whether he takes PUP endorsement or PUP fields against him will be one of the most interesting things for me. Nicklin is where I am enrolled, although I could just as easily and lawfully enroll in Kawana. Wellington will hold this seat, even though he lost ground to the LNP last election when they threw John 'Knuckes" Connolly (the former Wallaby Coach) at him. The LNP vote will drop, so I reckon Wellington will be okay. I reckon he will run as an independant.

Buderim is LNP heart land. Typical blue rinse brigade mob of toffee nosed tea drinking wankers who have that old portrait of Queen Elizabeth hung in pride of place. Currently held by a divisive individual, Steve Dickson, a former Councillor who operated as a hatchet man. He will hang on.

Caloundra ~ formerly the seat of Joan Sheldon, one time Queensland Treasurer, long term resident, and wife of a retired Lawyer. Now held by the LNP through Mark McArdle whom I know quite well. He was a Lawyer and former partner of one Terry Boyce in a firm known as Boyce Garrick (and Eastman.) Boyce was struck off for ripping millions out of clients who lost life savings investing in a stupid mortgage operation run by Boyce and which profitted the firm. McArdle escaped claiming "I knew nothing." Yet, he was happy to share in the profits. His is a Minister (of Energy) and will hang on.

Kawana will be where fur will fly in all directions, as PUP will go hard there. Currently held by the LNP's Jarrod Bleije the Attorney General responsible for the law and order debacle and judicial appointments. It has been held by Labor so there is a significant block there. Federally, it is the seat of Mal Brough, and formerly Peter Slipper, so there is plenty of LNP mud lying around. PUP did very well in the Federal election, winning many booths. PUP have a strong State candidate ~ Jeremy Davey, a local bloke, and former high level Naval Officer who was personally observant of stop boats. Admits he has post traumatic stress after fishing bodies out of the ocean. His kids go to school locally and he is a Member of important community groups. He'll do well, and I'd love to see that little fart dictator wannebe Attorney General shown the door. It'll be close.

Maroochydore. Held by the LNP through Fiona Simpson the current Speaker in Parliamant. She is vulnerable. Not personally popular. This is Federal Fairfax Country, the seat won by Palmer last Federal election. Dunno who the ALP or PUP are running there, but Fiona is in danger. Edit....dunno how I managed to overlook this, but I did. Here is the PUP Candidate. Her old man, an LNP alumni and former MLA rang PUP HQ and begged them to not field against his darling daughter. Bugger off, Fiona. You might hang on but get your tooth brush packed.

Noosa. Ink it in. LNP win by plenty.

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« Last Edit: Jan 6^th, 2015 at 3:41pm by Aussie »

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Aussie

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #201 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 2:44pm

Just in from PUP HQ:

Quote:

The state election has been announced for 31 January 2015.

Our party’s campaign launch will be held on Sunday 18 January 2015 at the Palmer Coolum Resort, Coolum (Sunshine Coast), commencing at 10am and concluding by midday.

State Leader John Bjelke-Petersen will introduce and announce the party’s candidates.

Senators Glenn Lazarus and Dio Wang will attend the launch as well as Federal Leader of the Palmer United Party and Member for Fairfax, Clive Palmer.

I hope the candidates are announced well before then!

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longweekend58

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #202 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:30pm

Aussie wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 2:44pm:

Just in from PUP HQ:

Quote:

The state election has been announced for 31 January 2015.

Our party’s campaign launch will be held on Sunday 18 January 2015 at the Palmer Coolum Resort, Coolum (Sunshine Coast), commencing at 10am and concluding by midday.

State Leader John Bjelke-Petersen will introduce and announce the party’s candidates.

Senators Glenn Lazarus and Dio Wang will attend the launch as well as Federal Leader of the Palmer United Party and Member for Fairfax, Clive Palmer.

I hope the candidates are announced well before then!

Well, now the Coolum Resort will actually have some guests!!!! pity that Palmer will be paying for them all!

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Aussie

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #203 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:35pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:30pm:

Aussie wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 2:44pm:

Just in from PUP HQ:

Quote:

The state election has been announced for 31 January 2015.

Our party’s campaign launch will be held on Sunday 18 January 2015 at the Palmer Coolum Resort, Coolum (Sunshine Coast), commencing at 10am and concluding by midday.

State Leader John Bjelke-Petersen will introduce and announce the party’s candidates.

Senators Glenn Lazarus and Dio Wang will attend the launch as well as Federal Leader of the Palmer United Party and Member for Fairfax, Clive Palmer.

I hope the candidates are announced well before then!

Well, now the Coolum Resort will actually have some guests!!!! pity that Palmer will be paying for them all!

Why don't you take your childish and irrelevant comments to the local kindergarten where perhaps they will be better appreciated? The three year olds will get a great laugh, I'm sure.

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Life_goes_on Gold Member Offline Posts: 4772 400kms south of Yobsville, Qld Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #204 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:35pm Newman will more than likely be gone. The LNP will be returned with a much reduced minority. PUP might get one or two elected. They've lost that initial boost and I think that overall, Queenslanders are a bit more aware of just how whacky Palmer himself is. The whole sorry Lambie affair hasn't done them any favours.
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longweekend58

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #205 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:35pm

Aussie wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 2:44pm:

Just in from PUP HQ:

Quote:

The state election has been announced for 31 January 2015.

Our party’s campaign launch will be held on Sunday 18 January 2015 at the Palmer Coolum Resort, Coolum (Sunshine Coast), commencing at 10am and concluding by midday.

State Leader John Bjelke-Petersen will introduce and announce the party’s candidates.

Senators Glenn Lazarus and Dio Wang will attend the launch as well as Federal Leader of the Palmer United Party and Member for Fairfax, Clive Palmer.

I hope the candidates are announced well before then!

I predict PUP will do exceedingly badly and poll around 2-3%. Palmer has hardly shown the nation how a hard-working MP should act and his senators - the two that remain - have shown themselves to be nobodies on the intellectual and policy front.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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John Smith

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #206 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:39pm

Life_goes_on wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:35pm:

Newman will more than likely be gone.

The LNP will be returned with a much reduced minority.

PUP might get one or two elected. They've lost that initial boost and I think that overall, Queenslanders are a bit more aware of just how whacky Palmer himself is. The whole sorry Lambie affair hasn't done them any favours.

Newman is history, libs will be back but with a majority of one or two seats ...Palmer is finished

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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.

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longweekend58

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #207 - Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:42pm

John Smith wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:39pm:

Life_goes_on wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:35pm:

Newman will more than likely be gone.

The LNP will be returned with a much reduced minority.

PUP might get one or two elected. They've lost that initial boost and I think that overall, Queenslanders are a bit more aware of just how whacky Palmer himself is. The whole sorry Lambie affair hasn't done them any favours.

Newman is history, libs will be back but with a majority of one or two seats ...Palmer is finished

Agreed. Palmer is gone, but that was obvious about 2 weeks into his parliamentary term and confirmed when his dopey senators unleashed their stupidty on the nation.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Aussie Gold Member Online OzPolitic Posts: 39228 Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #208 - Jan 7^th, 2015 at 11:11am Some housekeeping ~ Link. Quote: Send Them A Message - Get Rid Of Campbell Newman Link. Quote: Tony Abbott Is Box Office Poison In Queensland
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Bam

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #209 - Jan 7^th, 2015 at 11:18am

Life_goes_on wrote on Jan 6^th, 2015 at 4:35pm:

Newman will more than likely be gone.

The LNP will be returned with a much reduced minority.

PUP might get one or two elected. They've lost that initial boost and I think that overall, Queenslanders are a bit more aware of just how whacky Palmer himself is. The whole sorry Lambie affair hasn't done them any favours.

I pretty much agree with all of that.

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