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Why Nations Fail (Read 34492 times)
polite_gandalf
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #210 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 10:46am
 
by "as soon as it became a dictatorship" FD of course means about 3-4 hundred years after.
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #211 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 1:06pm
 
You must be looking at different numbers to me Gandalf. It looks to me like it all turned around around the year zero.
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polite_gandalf
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #212 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 1:28pm
 
Then you obviously need to check that again.

Suggest you also look at the raw figures detailed in the PDF on Morris's site I linked previously.
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #213 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 7:29pm
 
The peak came at the turn of the millenium, which was less than 50 years after Caesar became dictator. It is hard to imagine the results matching the theory more closely.
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polite_gandalf
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #214 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 7:48pm
 
The peak came at the turn of the Millenium - and remained for at least 200 years:

100 BCE 31.06 3.75 0.11 0.04 35.50
1 BCE/CE 33.78 9.36 0.12 0.04 43.30
100 CE 33.78 9.36 0.12 0.04 43.30
200 CE 32.69 9.36 0.11 0.04 42.20
300 CE 31.60 7.49 0.10 0.03 39.22
400 CE 31.06 7.49 0.09 0.03 38.67
500 CE 30.51 4.23 0.07 0.03 34.84

These are Morris's social development traits - from left to right: energy capture, organization, war making capacity, information technology - figures are for the west 100BCE - 500 CE

Figures for all traits are identical between 1CE - 100CE and held steady for another 100 years. Thus the "peak" as you call it remained for a full 200 years or so from 1CE to 200CE and only started to decline after 200CE

The Roman Empire did just fine under absolute dictatorship for the best part of 3 centuries.
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #215 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 8:05pm
 
Rome's standard of living was rising rapidly as a republic. As soon as it became a dictatorship, it stagnated (actually, fell slowly), followed by a rapid fall.

Again, it could not match the theory more closely.

You fail to see what is right in front of you.
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #216 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 9:20pm
 
Grin Grin can anyone say 'backpeddling'?

from...

freediver wrote on Feb 3rd, 2015 at 8:39am:
The wealth of Rome started to fall as soon as it became a dictatorship.


to...

freediver wrote on Feb 3rd, 2015 at 8:05pm:
As soon as it became a dictatorship, it stagnated


As I said, Roman economic prosperity was just fine and dandy under absolute dictatorship for the best part of three centuries.




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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #217 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 9:31pm
 
From this: The wealth of Rome started to fall as soon as it became a dictatorship.
To this: As soon as it became a dictatorship, it stagnated (actually, fell slowly)

Is restating the same thing Gandalf. You are getting desperate.

Quote:
As I said, Roman economic prosperity was just fine and dandy under absolute dictatorship for the best part of three centuries.


I am not sure what you think the theory says, but this in no way contradicts it. It supports it. Dictatorship put the brakes on Roman economic growth and lead to the demise of the empire. The growth went from the highest in recorded history and still growing, accelerating even, to falling.

The author actually cites modern examples of dictatorships causing societies to go from stagnation to rapid growth, and explains how it is consistent with his theory. If you want simplistic evidence against the theory, there is plenty, though greater familiarity with the details will render your arguments even more absurd.

Do you have an alternative theory Gandalf, to explain the "alleged" relationship between freedom, democracy and wealth?
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #218 - Feb 3rd, 2015 at 11:14pm
 
freediver wrote on Feb 3rd, 2015 at 9:31pm:
Dictatorship put the brakes on Roman economic growth and lead to the demise of the empire.


You can't even get this right.

If we put the establishment of Roman dictatorship at around 50BCE, we see from Morris's data that the increase of all traits continued to skyrocket until year 1, then stayed at the same level for another 100 years. So there goes your "fell slowly" baloney.

It then stayed at almost the same for another 100 years.

You say Rome's social development "fell slowly" under the dictatorship (ignoring the fact that for 150 it didn't - and translating "fell slowly" for "stagnated" when it suits) - whereas I prefer to call it Rome succeeding in maintaining social development at an unprecedented and phenomenally high level.

There are about 100 other reasons for the decline of Rome's prosperity that started nearly two centuries after the establishment of absolute dictatorship that had nothing to do with abolishing an imaginary "inclusive" government - that exists only in your mind. Feel free to read Edward Gibbon.
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #219 - Feb 4th, 2015 at 12:47pm
 
Quote:
If we put the establishment of Roman dictatorship at around 50BCE, we see from Morris's data that the increase of all traits continued to skyrocket until year 1, then stayed at the same level for another 100 years. So there goes your "fell slowly" baloney.


The data does not actually show this. It only has 100 year resolution. Furthermore, you are basically creating a strawman of the argument. Money does not evaporate the minute a dictator takes over. A significant lag is entirely consistent with the mechanisms involved. Despite that, the results for Rome match the theory extraordinarily well. Stagnation and fall where the was previously rapid growth is a change in fortune. If our own society stopped making scientific and economic advances and improvements to our quality of life, I would count that as a failure.

Quote:
You say Rome's social development "fell slowly" under the dictatorship (ignoring the fact that for 150 it didn't


Your own numbers show that it did - this alone is a significant change from the meteoric rise that preceded it.

Quote:
and translating "fell slowly" for "stagnated" when it suits)


Both are adequate descriptions.

Quote:
There are about 100 other reasons for the decline of Rome's prosperity that started nearly two centuries after the establishment of absolute dictatorship that had nothing to do with abolishing an imaginary "inclusive" government - that exists only in your mind. Feel free to read Edward Gibbon.


The lurch towards dictatorship can be an ultimate cause for probably most of the reasons he gives. The authors do go over some of the alternative reasons (eg blaming it on the various invaders) and explain how it is more a symptom than a cause. For example, suppose America became a dictatorship and it's GDP actually fell for the next few centuries, until one day Mexico or China or Afghanistan invaded. A simplistic analysis would blame it on the invasions. That would not actually be incorrect, as the invasion would be a proximate cause of something, but it would entirely miss the point and the lesson of history.

The same patterns are repeated throughout history, and the theory has great predictive power for what will happen in the future, as well as instructive power for how to achieve change. You do not need 100 reasons to explain 1 event. It is one reason that can explain 100 events.
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #220 - Feb 4th, 2015 at 2:30pm
 
freediver wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 12:47pm:
uote:
You say Rome's social development "fell slowly" under the dictatorship (ignoring the fact that for 150 it didn't


Your own numbers show that it did


You'll have to explain this to me FD. How does 2 centuries (from 100BCE to 100CE) of either growth or levels staying exactly the same equate to falling slowly?

freediver wrote on Feb 4th, 2015 at 12:47pm:
The authors do go over some of the alternative reasons (eg blaming it on the various invaders) and explain how it is more a symptom than a cause. For example, suppose America became a dictatorship and it's GDP actually fell for the next few centuries, until one day Mexico or China or Afghanistan invaded. A simplistic analysis would blame it on the invasions. That would not actually be incorrect, as the invasion would be a proximate cause of something, but it would entirely miss the point and the lesson of history


Thats about a million miles away from forming a coherent case for saying 'it must, therefore have been the abandonment of a politically inclusive government' - especially when you have singularly failed to even demonstrate that they had anything resembling this to start with (hint, my repeated requests for details in the islam forum which you ignore).

Just out of interest, how do you explain the meteoric rise in China's economy - a decidedly *NON* inclusive government?
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #221 - Feb 4th, 2015 at 7:29pm
 
Quote:
You'll have to explain this to me FD. How does 2 centuries (from 100BCE to 100CE) of either growth or levels staying exactly the same equate to falling slowly?


My bad. I thought there was a slight fall to 100 AD. 

Quote:
Thats about a million miles away from forming a coherent case for saying 'it must, therefore have been the abandonment of a politically inclusive government'


Of course. It was a response to a specific point you made, not an attempt to restate the case made by the authors.

Quote:
Just out of interest, how do you explain the meteoric rise in China's economy - a decidedly *NON* inclusive government?


Economic inclusiveness and the one child policy. The authors do cite other examples of the relationship between population and living standard in situations approaching Malthusian (most notably the black plague and it's aftermath), but it does not form part of the main thesis. China is liberalising their economy at a rapid rate (I have a European friend running businesses in Beijing). The theory does make some predictions at the consequences of this on the political situation. It will inevitably lead to pressure for political inclusiveness, and make such demands more likely to be fruitful. Furthermore, China's politics is already far more inclusive than most countries. The communist party is a very large organisation, apparently open to all comers. The political manouvering within the party to change from socialism towards capitalism looks much like any political party, except for the occasional jailing. I expect political inclusiveness to come about in the first instance through more transparency and democracy within the party before transitioning to a real democracy - more along the lines of the UK's slow change rather than the French Revolution. If the Chinese government clamps down and succeeds in reversing these changes, China's economy will slide, notwithstanding the effects of their population control.
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #222 - Dec 21st, 2017 at 8:18pm
 
bump for Augie
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #223 - Dec 21st, 2017 at 8:30pm
 
... bad government following the ideas put forward by aquascoot, longie and a few other fringe dwellers with no solid idea?

Just asking...  every man advances himself by being a positive user etc of everyone else, and every man advances himself by exploiting and dominating every other man..... and then they start chopping off the tits of the women who might breed the 'lesser' beings... and then they figure there is a better way... and they build the camps....
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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Re: Why Nations Fail
Reply #224 - Dec 22nd, 2017 at 4:09pm
 
Grappler Truth Teller Feller wrote on Dec 21st, 2017 at 8:30pm:
... bad government following the ideas put forward by aquascoot, longie and a few other fringe dwellers with no solid idea?

Just asking...  every man advances himself by being a positive user etc of everyone else, and every man advances himself by exploiting and dominating every other man..... and then they start chopping off the tits of the women who might breed the 'lesser' beings... and then they figure there is a better way... and they build the camps....


Aquascoot suggested the role of government is to pressure people and make life difficult.

It is a jolly world, you see.
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