...in my opinion anyway.

First and foremost, last election was a rejection of the dysfunctional labor government, not an endorsement of the coalition as an alternative government.

Secondly, labor have already renewed and given the public a 'fresh slate' - far more quickly than I think anyone predicted. This is in no small part to Kevin Rudd's recent announcement that he will retire. With both Gillard and Rudd gone, Labor under Shorten is already making great strides as projecting themselves as "reborn out of the ashes" - helped greatly by the fact that all but one senior minister retained their seat. In addition, the largely theatrical "grassroots" leadership ballot was a propaganda coup for labor IMO - even though the "grassroots" was overruled - it has helped (rightly or wrongly) re-image labor as more transparent, less factionalised, and less beholden to the "faceless men" - basically the number one thing that the public hated about labor during Gillard's term.

Thirdly, and ironically, after the years of negative campaigning and three word sloganeering, Tony Abbott may have created a media trap for himself. No opposition leader has better utilized the 24 hour media cycle than Tony Abbott - but this is already coming back to bite him. Its not just that his rhetoric while in opposition on boats, budget and debt are at odds with what he is doing on those issues now that he is in government, but the new 'frenzied' media culture that he created, is only too willing to shine the spotlight on these inconsistencies. And the best thing for labor, is that Tony Abbott gets shown in a negative light, while not even having to be the negative ones.

I'm not saying the coalition government will be particularly bad, or that they will be making complete howlers, but rather the atmosphere at the last election was more about getting rid of a government - not about providing a great opportunity for the coalition - once in government - to prosper at it. Basically, the cards had been stacked against a successful Abbott government even before the election, and this has only been enhanced by the successful rehabilitation of the labor party as a viable alternative government.

It is too early to make predictions about the result of the next election, but the occasional opinion poll that puts the ALP in front suggest that it's not impossible. Rudd's choosing to leave politics will be particularly helpful to the ALP's future chances.

How both sides perform over the next three years will decide their fate. Early on, the Coalition are faltering in their handling of foreign relations and their perceived breaking of an election promise, while the ALP have so far run reasonably well. But the race to the next election is a marathon, not a sprint, and we still have 92% or so of the race to run.

The electorate doesn't have buyer's remorse. Yet.

Quote:

(Excerpt)
Quote:

Kat wrote on Nov 29^th, 2013 at 11:57am:


How about the debt, deficit, carbon tax lie and illegal boat people coming in by the thousand? It doesn't matter what you say Kat, you are a Labor hack, and you were never going to give the Coalition a chance, no matter what they did/do.

matty wrote on Nov 29^th, 2013 at 12:11pm:


This is wrong.

Stop being wrong Matty

Do what I do matty ignore stratos...  illegal is the correct term even the UN state such...  the difference is that if they claim asylum you aren't supposed to prosecute the illegality. 
Dumb UN convention, written for another time.

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 29^th, 2013 at 11:09am:

matty wrote on Nov 29^th, 2013 at 12:11pm:

1951 Refugee Convention "The Contracting States shall not impose penalties, on account of their illegal entry or presence, on refugees who..."
yep illegals matty just like the UN said.
...