BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Nov 12^th, 2012 at 7:07pm:

Soren wrote on Nov 12^th, 2012 at 7:37pm:

so, penalty rates sit where in your world-view

???   

Karnal wrote on Nov 12^th, 2012 at 7:01pm:



That's what they said about Japan in the 1990s. Except when the Chinese bubble bursts, it will be an even bigger bang than the Japanese one.

The exchange rate is artificial and unsustainable.  Paradoxically, when it is adjusted to where it should be without Communistr Party ukaze, China will be priced out of the el cheapo labor market. Not to mention that the debt owed by the world will be a lot less in Chinese money than it is now.

It will also then have to start consuming a lot more of what it produces because it will not be so internationally competitive. But 700 million Chinese are still poor by any standard. China will not lift these people out of poverty before the demographic decline of the one child policy starts to bite.

The Chinese property bubble is already bigger than it was in the West or Japan before the crash there.

The level of corruption is stupendous. You can't be a world beater in the long run if you are so corrupt.

Soren wrote on Nov 12^th, 2012 at 8:22pm:



     

Soren wrote on Nov 12^th, 2012 at 8:14pm:


You know something? That’s a good post. My hat goes off to you.

Your first in a very long time, and it shows something going on upstairs (we know you lost down below years ago).

Maybe you can write more like it, old chap.

You’ve managed to persuade me.

One thing though: China’s rise is one thing. Amerika’s decline is another. Its election was fought largely on the economy, and no matter how everything looks on paper - the fundamentals - Amerikans know the rot has set in. It has one thing, you see, the Chinese don’t: debt. And no way to repay it.

Debt is what makes third world countries third world countries. That, and the odd despot.

Amerika’s days are not numbered, but the writing’s on the wall.

As every schoolboy knows.

FriYAY wrote on Nov 12^th, 2012 at 3:48pm:



No, it wouldn't be 'funny'.

A thought like that, comes from a very sick and dangerous mind, imo.

Soren wrote on Nov 12^th, 2012 at 9:55pm:


I don't think tariffs would do much, even if the incentive was there. Remember who funds Washington: the multinationals. They don't want tariffs, and Obama's now in debt to them.

The writer you posted favours free trade. She hates "old Europe", and tariffs are like lace doilies and cuckoo clocks.

Now we know the "free trade" idea is only good while it suits the US, but big business doesn't want tariffs. Threatening a trade wall is only a political strategy. It wont wash with all those US firms that get their products made in China. And when the price of a new flatscreen or Iphone goes through the roof thanks to tax, there goes Obama's political capital, along with every politician in the Congress that supports it.

I wonder if China itself will react to the artificial exchange rate. After all, it's Chinese investors who are being ripped off. If you follow the money, you'll see where the real motivations and incentives lie. Politicians can say whatever they want, but the US's decline is built into the structure of the global economy.

It's good as a consumer market, but manufacturing? Forget about it. And remember, the development of heavy industry is what has led every nation to power, and what has caused every big war in the past century.

Amerika's decline is in no one's interests, including the Chinese. But the exclusion of China would be even worse. This, after all, is exactly what led to WWI and II when Germany and Japan felt left out.