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Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi (Read 787 times)
Peter Freedman
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Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Mar 31st, 2012 at 9:11am
 
Thought we should start a new thread so as to keep things tidy. Little Poppet told me she likes things tidy.

Don't go near Moonee Valley. great course but the horses are rubbish.

Rosehill, though, WOW! This is a beauty and next week is even better!

R1: No 8
Mrs Gray
(my old next door neighbour)

R2: No1 Looks
All too Hard
for me

R3: No 2
African Pulse
very speedy, lots of niggles but if he is right.....

R4: No 1
Rain Affair


R5 No 2
Murjilisa Lass
for huge upset. This is probably her last chance and Damien is on

R6 No 6
Firebolt
gone from NZ's best trainer (Roger James) to Australia's best (Chris Waller). I have only backed him once when he didn't win.

R7 No 2
Induna
and No 19
Ethiopia


R8 No 9
Jimmy Fortunes
after another grandie

R9 No bet

sunny Brisbane

R1 No 6
Interview
, well I am a journo after all

R2 No 4
Regrets


R4 No 10
The Reveller


R5 No 17
Full Metal Jacket


R6 No 12 Judy's Joy

R7 No bet

R8 No bet

And that's it.

Best Bet: Little Poppet likes Full Metal Jacket

Best roughie: Murjilissa Lass

Good hunting!

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Dnarever
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #1 - Mar 31st, 2012 at 9:28am
 
Good Luck.

I didn't get time to do any serious form so I will be watching today.

Maybe a Quaddie or something for interest.
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philperth2010
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #2 - Mar 31st, 2012 at 10:14am
 
Let me know how your tips go Pete so I can see how good you are......Then I might decide to take your advice.....Good punting!!!

Smiley Smiley Smiley
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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #3 - Mar 31st, 2012 at 5:51pm
 
Not a great day apart from the obvious shorties. The key to my punting is that I don't back for as place and like good odds. This means there will be times when the pickings are lean but I know sooner or later I'll hit one.

For mine, betting is like life. You have only yourself to blame when you stuff up.

I follow certain rules, like never backing a Kiwi horse in its first Australian start. Proved right again in the Rosehill Guineas.

When in the $s I like  field quinellas with a long shot. Have struck some beauties that way including one of over $1000. Cheesy
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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #4 - Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:39am
 
Okay, let's concentrate on Rosehill today, that's where the action is.

Best bet at Caulfield is:

R6 10
Smokin Joey


and at Eagle Farm:

R6 11
Judy's Joy


Now Rosehill:

R1 6
Toydini

R2 5
Master of Design

R3 1 and 2
Mosheen and Streama
in the shortest quinella in racing history
R4 4
Specter

R5 6
Niwot

R6 1 and 3
More Joyous and King's Rose

R7 14
Cavalry Rose

R8 13
He's Remarkable

R9 5
Maules Creek


He's Remarkable is my one bet for the day.

Good punting!    Cool
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blackadder
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #5 - Apr 7th, 2012 at 8:34pm
 
Peter Freedman wrote on Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:39am:
Okay, let's concentrate on Rosehill today, that's where the action is.

Best bet at Caulfield is:

R6 10
Smokin Joey
  Yes.

and at Eagle Farm:

R6 11
Judy's Joy
  Nope

Now Rosehill:

R1 6
Toydini
Nope.

R2 5
Master of Design
Nope.

R3 1 and 2
Mosheen and Streama
in the shortest quinella in racing history   Yep.

R4 4
Specter
Nope.

R5 6
Niwot
  Nope.

R6 1 and 3
More Joyous and King's Rose
  Nope

R7 14
Cavalry Rose
  Nope.

R8 13
He's Remarkable
  Nope

R9 5
Maules Creek
  Nope.

He's Remarkable is my one bet for the day.

Good punting!    Cool

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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #6 - Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:06pm
 
At least give me half a point for More Joyous!

I now know He's Remarkable isn't a wfa horse. I know Specter is at best a country handicapper.

I suspect Niwot will win the Sydney Cup.

I know Master of Design will win a race very soon.

And I know Anthony Freedman has finally found the answer to Smokin Joey.

I know I lost $10.

And I know there are more races on Monday.

What did you learn today blackadder?
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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #7 - Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:34pm
 
Okay, blackadder let's see what you are made of.

Here's a challenge for you: Come back here next weekend and pick one horse in each race at Randwick. I'll do the same.

Then we'll compare the nopes and the yeses.

Put your balls on the line, get into the game and don't just sit on the sideline after the match is over.

Are you on?

Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink
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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #8 - Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:37pm
 
And just remember the nags I picked today were with an eye on the price.

Take me on next weekend and I'll be picking the horses I think will win.

We'll put an imaginary $10 e/w on each horse and see who ends up with the most money.

OK?

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #9 - Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:38pm
 
BTW, the Poppet's pick was Smokin Joey. Smart girl. When she learns to walk she'll be even better.
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blackadder
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #10 - Apr 8th, 2012 at 7:06am
 
Peter Freedman wrote on Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:34pm:
Okay, blackadder let's see what you are made of.

Here's a challenge for you: Come back here next weekend and pick one horse in each race at Randwick. I'll do the same.

Then we'll compare the nopes and the yeses.

Put your balls on the line, get into the game and don't just sit on the sideline after the match is over.

Are you on?

Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink



Not me.

Don't like throwing my money up against the wall and watching it blow away.


Ever seen a down and out bookmaker??
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Dnarever
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #11 - Apr 8th, 2012 at 8:30am
 
blackadder wrote on Apr 8th, 2012 at 7:06am:
Peter Freedman wrote on Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:34pm:
Okay, blackadder let's see what you are made of.

Here's a challenge for you: Come back here next weekend and pick one horse in each race at Randwick. I'll do the same.

Then we'll compare the nopes and the yeses.

Put your balls on the line, get into the game and don't just sit on the sideline after the match is over.

Are you on?

Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink



Not me.

Don't like throwing my money up against the wall and watching it blow away.


Ever seen a down and out bookmaker??



You are mostly right BA - most people would be better off the stay away from the races.

However it is a true form of gambling and there are people who make a living out of it.

The bookies are safe because most people are either not smart enough not educated enough or just in it for some fun without the research and work necessary to be successful.

Mathematicians - Like Dom Byrne - gen generate a profit of between 8% and 12% per day overall and the very astute form guys do about the same.

Most average punters over reach looking for 1000% on one race or have no idea when considering the full form, track conditions, track bias, race speed, horse class,horse speed, real market, weight variation, distance, distance change, number of starts, track suitability, jockey ability and form, probalbe hidden factors, barrier and its impact, position in field, first and second start form, the look of the horse, the race assesment - too dificult to predice or good race to target etc.
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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #12 - Apr 8th, 2012 at 11:12am
 
blackadder wrote on Apr 8th, 2012 at 7:06am:
Peter Freedman wrote on Apr 7th, 2012 at 9:34pm:
Okay, blackadder let's see what you are made of.

Here's a challenge for you: Come back here next weekend and pick one horse in each race at Randwick. I'll do the same.

Then we'll compare the nopes and the yeses.

Put your balls on the line, get into the game and don't just sit on the sideline after the match is over.

Are you on?

Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink Wink



Not me.

Don't like throwing my money up against the wall and watching it blow away.


Ever seen a down and out bookmaker??



The money is
IMAGINARY for goodness sake!


It would not cost you a dollar but would mean putting your reputation on the line. Are you up to it or not?
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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #13 - Apr 8th, 2012 at 12:45pm
 
Now lets have a look at how my tips DID fare. No "nope"s or "yes"es, but an objective look at how they ran.

Smoking Joey: Won easily. Nothing more to be said.

Judy's Joy: finished within three lengths of winner and bled from both nostrils. Is now out for the mandatory three months.

Toydini: At only its second start, held its ground in the straight, ran 7th 4ls from the winner

Master of Design: 3rd beaten by less then 3ls

Specter: Outclassed, last

Niwot: A handicapper against wfa horses, ran 4th finishing on strongly

More Joyous and Kings Rose: ran 1st and 3rd separated by an 80-1 shot

Cavalry Rose: ran on for 8th in one of the best Slipper fields in years. Described by jockey Christian Reith as the toughest filly he had ever ridden and a "star in the making".

He's Remarkable: Came rght into the race on the turn, but then the weight told on him. In the Doncaster he will be getting up to 7kgs weight advantage from horses he met yesterday. Is a huge chance in that race.

Maules Creek: Dropped back to 7th from 3rd at the turn. Beaten by just over 3ls.

So of all the horsers I tipped only one ran a poor race.

I wait to see if Blackadder has balls or not.





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Peter Freedman
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Re: Racing Tips from a mildly bipolar Kiwi
Reply #14 - Apr 10th, 2012 at 4:40pm
 
Had a fun day yesterday turning $45 into $120, took a special lady out to a quiet Thai dinner of quail, tempura sea scallops, roast duck red curry, fried fish in tamarind sauce and deep fried icecream for dessrt.

Washed down with a bottle of Otago Pinot Noir.

I conclude blackadder is a show pony with no goolies. All mouth and trousers.
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God grant me the patience to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can and, above all, the wisdom to tell the difference.
 
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