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Warning on climate change (Read 4528 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #75 - Apr 14th, 2012 at 8:17am
 
muso wrote on Apr 14th, 2012 at 7:11am:
Emma Peel wrote on Apr 13th, 2012 at 11:27pm:
Because??  I can't quite believe there are still people who claim 'we' aren't 'to blame' ..so  we need DO NOTHING.!!??
I'm loathe to say it, but some people will only believe it when THEIR home is at risk, or even trashed.!! Like the victims of too many! recent (natural) disasters.



I had a dog once that would bring home nice smelly offerings that it had unearthed somewhere  and leave them by the door, wagging its tail proudly. However being an intelligent dog, It leaned fairly quickly that it was unacceptable to bring home garbage.

You would think that people who forage around in the virtual garbage pits of the blogosphere would eventually learn from their mistakes, especially  when it has been demonstrated time and time again that these are deliberate lies.  OK, these tasty morsels  might smell good, and they might like to roll in them, but  at their core is rotten disease-spreading decay - an affront to the sanctity of knowledge.

Generally speaking, those people who pride themselves on independent thought  tend to react with distaste when they find that they have been conned. It's very telling if they don't react like that and it says a lot about their personal character and integrity when they return again and again to the same garbage pit, only to emerge triumphantly with yet another smelly offering. 


My dog doesn't bother bringing it's tasty morsels home, it simply swallows them whole, on the spot, when we are out for a walk, before I have a chance to say NO.

Which in fact, is little like some people, who swallow a certain line, because it fits what they want to believe, they swallow the line whole & no amount of logic will convince them to change what they think!

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MOTR
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #76 - Apr 14th, 2012 at 8:38am
 
muso wrote on Apr 13th, 2012 at 1:33pm:
progressiveslol wrote on Apr 13th, 2012 at 10:09am:
Not at all. The words "general agreement" means yes and no, maybe, ok slightly.


Well you ought to be. General agreement means general agreement.  Read it again:

Quote:
There are some notable similarities and notable differences between the spatial pattern of change shown in Fig. 1, and the pattern of projected change in annual runoff from 1980–1999 to 2090–2099, as illustrated in maps published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such as Figure 3.4 of Bates et al. (2008), recognizing that the former is
focused on flood magnitude while the latter is on overall water availability.
1.
The similarity is strong in terms of the trend towards drying conditions in the Rocky Mountains and arid southwest.

2.
In addition, the relatively neutral results in the Southeast and Northwest
quadrants of the USA also show a general agreement between this study and the IPCC projections.


3.
]However, the highly focused area of very high β 1 values near and to the south of the Red River of the North shows up as an area of virtually no change in the runoff projection map. 


It was clear that the final statement related only to this highly focussed area. That's saying that in two out of three locations, there was agreement with IPCC predictions. Of course, the IPCC predictions were over a 100 year timeline, and we've only had 10-20 years so far. 



...
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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."
 
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #77 - Apr 14th, 2012 at 8:59am
 
M Mann had a dog once too and it ate all his homework and all he had left was a hockey stick to show for it but no way to explain it.
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MOTR
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #78 - Apr 14th, 2012 at 9:44am
 
Just trying to get my head around these results. The null hypothesis was that flood magnitudes are independent of the rising global mean carbon dioxide concentration. For this to hold beta1 for each site (represented by the triangles on the map) needs to be close to zero. 

Using a 95% confidence interval the null hypothesis can be rejected at 48 of the 200 stream sites. That is at 75% of these sites there was no statistically significant evidence that flood magnitudes were affected in any way by CO2 concentrations. What is interesting is that while 30 of the sites have a positive beta1 coefficient (a statistically significant positive correlation between flood magnitudes and CO2 concentrations) 18 had a statistically significant negative correlation.

Quote:
Under the null hypothesis the expected numbers would be five positive and five negative. The fact that the actual numbers are so much larger than the expected numbers could be a consequence of spatial and temporal correlations in the data and/or the presence of regionally specific causal relationships to GMCO2.


This seems to suggest that in the US there is some evidence that the rising global carbon dioxide concentration is having a hydrological impact. Causing an increase in flood magnitudes in some areas and a decrease in others.

As Muso pointed out from the start, this study tells us nothing about an increase in flooding per se in that it only measures annual stream peaks not frequency.

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« Last Edit: Apr 14th, 2012 at 9:59am by MOTR »  

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."
 
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muso
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #79 - Apr 14th, 2012 at 11:36am
 
MOTR wrote on Apr 14th, 2012 at 9:44am:
Just trying to get my head around these results. The null hypothesis was that flood magnitudes are independent of the rising global mean carbon dioxide concentration. For this to hold beta1 for each site (represented by the triangles on the map) needs to be close to zero. 

Using a 95% confidence interval the null hypothesis can be rejected at 48 of the 200 stream sites. That is at 75% of these sites there was no statistically significant evidence that flood magnitudes were affected in any way by CO2 concentrations. What is interesting is that while 30 of the sites have a positive beta1 coefficient (a statistically significant positive correlation between flood magnitudes and CO2 concentrations) 18 had a statistically significant negative correlation.



Don't forget that the IPCC report actually forecasts a lower flood magnitude for certain regions. They produced a map, and we need to averlay that map.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #80 - Apr 14th, 2012 at 12:21pm
 
muso wrote on Apr 14th, 2012 at 11:36am:
MOTR wrote on Apr 14th, 2012 at 9:44am:
Just trying to get my head around these results. The null hypothesis was that flood magnitudes are independent of the rising global mean carbon dioxide concentration. For this to hold beta1 for each site (represented by the triangles on the map) needs to be close to zero. 

Using a 95% confidence interval the null hypothesis can be rejected at 48 of the 200 stream sites. That is at 75% of these sites there was no statistically significant evidence that flood magnitudes were affected in any way by CO2 concentrations. What is interesting is that while 30 of the sites have a positive beta1 coefficient (a statistically significant positive correlation between flood magnitudes and CO2 concentrations) 18 had a statistically significant negative correlation.



Don't forget that the IPCC report actually forecasts a lower flood magnitude for certain regions. They produced a map, and we need to averlay that map.


It's pretty safe that the South West of Australia & the USA in particular, will figure in lower Flood levels, as both have been on a drying out bender, for decades, but the Southern areas of both Australia & the USA in general, will also be under stress over time!
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #81 - Apr 14th, 2012 at 12:34pm
 
It seems that the hydrological impact of global warming is incredibly difficult to predict. Tragically, many Australians are now comfortable denying global warming because certain hydrological predictions have yet to manifest themselves.
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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."
 
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muso
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #82 - Apr 14th, 2012 at 1:01pm
 
...

Yes, and unfortunately, many are ignorant what they are arguing against.

(for "averlay" read overlay in my last post)
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #83 - Apr 18th, 2012 at 4:39pm
 
MOTR wrote on Apr 14th, 2012 at 12:34pm:
It seems that the hydrological impact of global warming is incredibly difficult to predict. Tragically, many Australians are now comfortable denying global warming because certain hydrological predictions have yet to manifest themselves.

Tragedy, oh the greek tragedy of it all!  Cool Cool

This state of confusion is normal, remember that.

Sure, the media confounds the problem but if you look at ELISABETH-KUBLER ROSS'S 5 stages of dying you will see there is a long process to acceptance of truth.

Markets rely on good regulation. Otherwise they are chaotic and inefficient as can be seen with all contraband!!

A carbon price changes the very definition of human progress!!!
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...... -----=>>
..NOW, HOW DOES THIS HELP THE WORLD GO SOLAR? 
 
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #84 - Apr 19th, 2012 at 9:21am
 
MOTR wrote on Apr 14th, 2012 at 12:34pm:
It seems that the hydrological impact of global warming is incredibly difficult to predict. Tragically, many Australians are now comfortable denying global warming because certain hydrological predictions have yet to manifest themselves.


Let's say that you live in Brisbane. What the IPCC prediction for Brisbane is saying (refer maps) is 0-5% lower precipitation by 2099. We're at 2012 now, so the prediction is for (5 times 12 divided by 100) or 12 percent of FA (and that's assuming a linear response).  Referring to the map again, the summer precipitation for Brisbane is predicted to be 0-5% higher. Even allowing for the fact that these figures are conservative, can you see that we shouldn't expect to see any evidence of changes in precipitation yet, and any such changes are swamped by natural variation anyway.

If you're looking for early evidence of precipitation change in Australia, I'd look at Perth. The prediction there is more extreme. The prognosis for that city's water resources is not good.

(FA = Fundamental Analysis of course)   Wink
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« Last Edit: Apr 19th, 2012 at 9:37am by muso »  

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MOTR
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #85 - Apr 19th, 2012 at 9:53am
 
muso wrote on Apr 19th, 2012 at 9:21am:
MOTR wrote on Apr 14th, 2012 at 12:34pm:
It seems that the hydrological impact of global warming is incredibly difficult to predict. Tragically, many Australians are now comfortable denying global warming because certain hydrological predictions have yet to manifest themselves.


Let's say that you live in Brisbane. What the IPCC prediction for Brisbane is saying (refer maps) is 0-5% lower precipitation by 2099. We're at 2012 now, so the prediction is for (5 times 12 divided by 100) or 12 percent of FA.  Referring to the map again, the summer precipitation for Brisbane is predicted to be 0-5% higher. Even allowing for the fact that these figures are conservative, can you see that we shouldn't expect to see any evidence of changes in precipitation yet, and any such changes are swamped by natural variation anyway.

If you're looking for early evidence of precipitation change in Australia, I'd look at Perth. The prediction there is more extreme. The prognosis for that city's water resources is not good.

(FA = Fundamental Analysis of course)   Wink


If we relate this back to dam levels and flooding, shouldn't we be looking at more than just precipitation. Aren't we expecting warmer  temperatures to dry out the soil and reduce run off. Nature has just proven these effects are insignificant relative to a massive La Nina effect, but they are still there and will no doubt impact on Brisbane's water supply issues over the next 90 years.

Unfortunately, despite his obvious caveats, Flannery, seems to have overstated these other effects relative to natural variation. His prognosis is probably right, but he has tarnished his credibility by not clearly articulating the caveats.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."
 
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The Stunt-free Horse
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #86 - Apr 19th, 2012 at 3:27pm
 
Yes, he has damaged his credibility but I don't think he is concerned by that!

Einstein admitted to errata later in life, but the thrust of his arguments still changed the world before they were found to be in need of correction!!!
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