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Warning on climate change (Read 8115 times)
BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #30 - Mar 26th, 2012 at 5:36pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Mar 26th, 2012 at 5:14pm:
Study: Global temperatures could rise 5 degrees by 2050


....

Um, I was thinking other reports have stated 3 degrees minimum has been locked in so to speak by the year 2070.

This is going off memory, but I thought there was a scary number basically locked in already!  Undecided Undecided Undecided Cry
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Emma
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #31 - Apr 1st, 2012 at 11:30pm
 
ona slightly different tack, was watching ABC1 QLD to night - very interesting program on the effects of human habitation on our current climate predicament.

Basically, ..if old weather models were in play,  an ice age would have commenced around about 7000 yrs ago, but,,it didn't.!!

What did, was human occupation, and farming. V int prog.
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gizmo_2655
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #32 - Apr 2nd, 2012 at 12:22am
 
Emma wrote on Apr 1st, 2012 at 11:30pm:
ona slightly different tack, was watching ABC1 QLD to night - very interesting program on the effects of human habitation on our current climate predicament.

Basically, ..if old weather models were in play,  an ice age would have commenced around about 7000 yrs ago, but,,it didn't.!!

What did, was human occupation, and farming. V int prog.


Well that's a complete load of rubbish.....
The 'average' interval for an interglaciation (which we are currently in) is 10,000 to 15,000 years, and this interglacial period only started about 11,000 years ago...

Which means under the ABC panic reasoning, this warm period (interglacial) would have only lasted half or one third as long as evey other one.....

In reality, the next glacial event is due either soon (< 1000 years) or in the next 5,000 to 15,000 years.... (Depending on which theory you like...)
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Emma
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #33 - Apr 2nd, 2012 at 1:03am
 
whatever.....
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Doctor Jolly
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #34 - Apr 2nd, 2012 at 9:25am
 
Stating the bleeding obvious, but....

Denialism just foolishness.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2012/04/global-warming-denialism-just-foolishness-scientist-peter-raven-says/

An extensive “disinformation campaign” in the United States about the scientific solidity and gravity of manmade global warming has been described in detail by a number of academic analyses and extensive professional journalistic enquiry.
For example, “Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues From Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming,” by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, details how ideological, political and fossil fuel industry interests have been able to confuse and intimidate many leaders in legislature and media.
Author and journalist Ross Gelbspan, who directed a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigation at the Boston Globe, was one of the first professional journalists to describe fossil fuel industry efforts to delay government regulation on greenhouse gas emissions as long as possible.
“They don’t expect or need to win any debate,” he says, “they just want to keep the appearance of a debate going.”

...

Intimidation of media leaders, notably those professing to provide professional journalism, is described by Gelbspan and other analysts as proceeding from a “false politicization” of the issue — notably in the adoption by one of America’s two major political parties, the Republicans — of an anti-climate science agenda.
This, they suggest, may have meant that some editors and news executives feared that if they covered manmade global warming with the scale and focus the science would seem to require, that it would, at least to some American audiences and readers, have appeared necessarily partisan.



Same thing has happened here, where the liberals have been hijacked by vested interests, to perform acts against the public interest.

Clive palmer says jump. Campbell Newman and Tony Abbott say "how high?".
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muso
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #35 - Apr 2nd, 2012 at 9:57pm
 
The Coalition, like the ALP, pays lip service to cutting carbon emissions and matches the ALP efforts on renewable energy.

Quote:
....the creation of a $2.55 billion (over the first four years) Emissions Reduction Fund, additional funding for one million solar homes by 2020, clean energy hubs, solar towns and solar schools, geothermal projects, studies into algal synthesis and the planting of 20 million trees.


Tony Abbott is a populist and an opportunist, but the Coalition Climate Change policy is there for everybody to see. For those who think otherwise - It doesn't say that AGW is a scam either.

It will be interesting to see if Tony Abbott can survive, given that at current trends, his percentage approval rating will be something like minus 25% by the next election.  Grin

The planting of 20 million trees is a red herring. Unless we can achieve realistic renewable energy targets worldwide, then those trees will become net emitters of carbon in the future.

Like everything else, the place to start with building our renewable energy infrastructure  is at home.

It will be interesting to see if the LIbs demolish the Clean energy legislation in its entirety. It would cost them too much to do that.  The problem is that many industries will be reaping the benefits by next year. The easiest thing that they could do would be to price carbon at $5 per tonne. 
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« Last Edit: Apr 2nd, 2012 at 10:07pm by muso »  

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perceptions_now
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #36 - Apr 9th, 2012 at 8:15pm
 
Start of 2012, March shatter US heat records


WASHINGTON - (AP) -- It's been so warm in the United States this year, especially in March, that national records weren't just broken, they were deep-fried.

Temperatures in the lower 48 states were 8.6 degrees above normal for March and 6 degrees higher than average for the first three months of the year, according to calculations by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That far exceeds the old records.

The magnitude of how unusual the year has been in the U.S. has alarmed some meteorologists who have warned about global warming. One climate scientist said it's the weather equivalent of a baseball player on steroids, with old records obliterated.

The first quarter of 2012 broke the January-March record by 1.4 degrees. Usually records are broken by just one- or two-tenths of a degree. U.S. temperature records date to 1895.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/start-of-2012-march-shatter-us-heat-records-1.3649...
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progressiveslol
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #37 - Apr 9th, 2012 at 11:18pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Apr 9th, 2012 at 8:15pm:
Start of 2012, March shatter US heat records


WASHINGTON - (AP) -- It's been so warm in the United States this year, especially in March, that national records weren't just broken, they were deep-fried.

Temperatures in the lower 48 states were 8.6 degrees above normal for March and 6 degrees higher than average for the first three months of the year, according to calculations by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That far exceeds the old records.

The magnitude of how unusual the year has been in the U.S. has alarmed some meteorologists who have warned about global warming. One climate scientist said it's the weather equivalent of a baseball player on steroids, with old records obliterated.

The first quarter of 2012 broke the January-March record by 1.4 degrees. Usually records are broken by just one- or two-tenths of a degree. U.S. temperature records date to 1895.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/start-of-2012-march-shatter-us-heat-records-1.3649...

I dont see how a localised anomoly is something to fear. It happens around the globe all the time. Cooling or warming.

Below will put your mind at ease that most of the globe is at a steady temp
...
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« Last Edit: Apr 10th, 2012 at 8:43am by progressiveslol »  
 
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muso
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #38 - Apr 10th, 2012 at 10:50am
 
progressiveslol wrote on Apr 9th, 2012 at 11:18pm:
I dont see how a localised anomoly is something to fear. It happens around the globe all the time. Cooling or warming.

Below will put your mind at ease that most of the globe is at a steady temp


It's not about anomalies.  Anomalies happen all the time. Records do not. 

The key word here is "record". We're seeing progressively more hottest temperature records being broken and progressively fewer coldest temperature records.
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progressiveslol
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #39 - Apr 10th, 2012 at 11:56am
 
muso wrote on Apr 10th, 2012 at 10:50am:
progressiveslol wrote on Apr 9th, 2012 at 11:18pm:
I dont see how a localised anomoly is something to fear. It happens around the globe all the time. Cooling or warming.

Below will put your mind at ease that most of the globe is at a steady temp


It's not about anomalies.  Anomalies happen all the time. Records do not. 

The key word here is "record". We're seeing progressively more hottest temperature records being broken and progressively fewer coldest temperature records.

I take it you dont see the intense localisation of that heat wave amongst all the normal average non-scary temperature anomolies.

Are you all predicting a jump in global temperature for 2012 or will it be the same as 2011. Non-scary bugger all temp rise for the year, globally.
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muso
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #40 - Apr 10th, 2012 at 1:59pm
 
It's difficult to predict temperature temperature rise for a single year. It's easier if you take the running 15 year mean global temperatures and look at trends in that, because that usually cancels out short term natural variation. It's the overall trend that counts. 

If many more high temperature records are broken compared with low temperature records from year to year, it's a good indication that things are getting warmer. If there is warming in the lower troposphere accompanied by a cooling in the Stratosphere, that's a good indication that it couldn't be due to an increase in solar output. 

I'm not sure that I follow your argument.  Are you arguing that heat waves are normal or not normal?

...
Above - Graph showing a general cooling trend in the Lower Stratosphere.
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #41 - Apr 10th, 2012 at 5:34pm
 
progressiveslol wrote on Apr 10th, 2012 at 11:56am:
muso wrote on Apr 10th, 2012 at 10:50am:
progressiveslol wrote on Apr 9th, 2012 at 11:18pm:
I dont see how a localised anomoly is something to fear. It happens around the globe all the time. Cooling or warming.

Below will put your mind at ease that most of the globe is at a steady temp


It's not about anomalies.  Anomalies happen all the time. Records do not. 

The key word here is "record". We're seeing progressively more hottest temperature records being broken and progressively fewer coldest temperature records.

I take it you dont see the intense localisation of that heat wave amongst all the normal average non-scary temperature anomolies.

Are you all predicting a jump in global temperature for 2012 or will it be the same as 2011. Non-scary bugger all temp rise for the year, globally.

You have a point: an anomly is an anomoly and they can only be ruled out by way of long term moving averages! i.e. statistical analysis takes real time!!
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #42 - Apr 10th, 2012 at 5:35pm
 
<<--...this, essentially, is what the scientific principle of uncertainty all about!!
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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progressiveslol
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #43 - Apr 11th, 2012 at 10:44am
 
A new paper on climate extemes going all the way back to whenever. Nothing different from today.

Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic
springtime extremes over the last millennium

http://www.wsl.ch/fe/landschaftsdynamik/dendroclimatology/Publikationen/Buentgen...
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muso
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Re: Warning on climate change
Reply #44 - Apr 11th, 2012 at 3:19pm
 
progressiveslol wrote on Apr 11th, 2012 at 10:44am:
A new paper on climate extemes going all the way back to whenever. Nothing different from today.

Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic
springtime extremes over the last millennium

http://www.wsl.ch/fe/landschaftsdynamik/dendroclimatology/Publikationen/Buentgen...


So to summarise,  you're saying that based on this paper (abstract below) that anthropogenic climate change  is just part of a natural pattern? 

Maybe you tried to interpret the German version, because the English version says no such thing. What the paper is saying is that we can learn from the past what the likely consequences of the predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will be. The authors of that report would be pretty non-plussed by your interpretation.

Radiative forcing due to orbital effects has the same net effect as radiative forcing due to increased greenhouse gas concentration (forgetting about a few unwanted extras such as falling ocean pH and calcification rates). We can learn from past episodes, but that's not the same as saying that past episodes had common causes.   

Quote:
A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earth’s climate system likely imply more frequent and severe weather extremes with alternations in hydroclimatic parameters expected to be most critical for ecosystem functioning, agricultural yield, and human health.
Evaluating the return period and amplitude of modern climatic extremes in light of pre-industrial natural changes is, however, limited by generally too short instrumental meteorological observations. Here we introduce and analyze 11,873 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and historical fir (Abies alba Mill.) trees sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, which continuously span the AD 962e2007 period. Even though a dominant climatic driver of European fir growth was not found, ring width extremes were evidently triggered by anomalous variations in Central European AprileJune precipitation. Wet conditions were associated with dynamic low-pressure cells, whereas continental-scale droughts coincided with persistent high-pressure between 35 and 55
N. Documentary evidence independently confirms many of the dendro signals over the past millennium, and further provides insight on causes and consequences of ambient weather conditions related to the reconstructed extremes. A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming may question the common believe that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean stages. This joint dendro-documentary approach not only allows extreme climate conditions of the industrial era to be placed against the backdrop of natural variations, but also probably helps to constrain climate model simulations over exceptional long timescales.
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