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Will Rudd Destroy Labor? (Read 3802 times)
longweekend58
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Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Feb 20th, 2012 at 4:33pm
 


Is there a greater hypocrite in Australia than Kevin Rudd? His performance over the weekend following the leaking of a video revealing his infamous propensity for swearing showed a staggering amount of only one thing – gall.

Rudd's failure to speak directly on whether or not he will challenge Julia Gillard before the next poll is in most respects pretty conventional stuff. Would-be leaders on both sides of the House duck that question for months before finally making their run and telling cameras shortly afterwards "I never absolutely said I wouldn't run". Bill Shorten probably mutters that in his sleep.

But that's where the conventional pattern ends. Unlike other leadership skirmishes, Rudd risks a lot more than a shattered ego. Indeed, it is hard to see how his actions in recent months can do anything but destroy the party he led to election victory in 2007.

Discounting a desperate bid to parachute Stephen Smith, Greg Combet, Bill Shorten or Simon Crean into the top job, here are the possible scenarios:

1) If, by a miracle, Rudd is brought back to lead the party to the next election, victory is far from assured. If Labor lost under Rudd, the turncoats who backed him at the spill would fight tooth and nail with Gillard loyalists for what's left of a diminished party – the best seats, the best staff, the best factional connections and the best chance of being part of a Labor Party edging daily closer to being the Greens' equal at the ballot box rather than maintaining its status as one of two majors. Party over.

2) If Rudd challenges Gillard and comprehensively loses the vote, he will remain in parliament and, having lost his ability to destabilise Gillard directly, would be tempted to tell the world every damaging morsel of information he has about her. That is precisely what the anti-Rudd camp believes he did during the 2010 poll – they blame him for the leaks that dragged Labor's vote down to result in a hung parliament.

3) If Rudd does not run, but never actually gets around to saying he fully supports Gillard, then he will do more than anyone else could (including Tony Abbott) to ensure Gillard is trashed at the general election. Unless something changes, that is the course Labor is currently on, and it would be a rout of such magnitude that the party would be unlikely to recover. Again, party over.

4) Rudd wins a spill and wins the subsquent Reps-only election (or, with the support of crossbenches manages to cling to power until a general election in 2013). In this scenario, Rudd appears to have saved Labor from oblivion.

5) Finally, if Rudd does not challenge for the prime minister's job, and comes out hand on heart to tell Australia that Gillard is the better PM, his support could help the party to win the next election without him in the top job.

Of those possibilities, the first three are the most likely. The fourth scenario is not beyond the realms of possibility but is far from likely. And the fifth scenario would involve a press conference featuring a fly-over by a squadron of aerobatic pigs.

All of which brings us back to Rudd's hypocrisy this weekend. He told Sky News' David Speers:

"... [there is one thing that] Australians want more than ever and that is for government and Opposition, Mr Abbott as well, to focus on the absolute detail of how we sustain the strength of this economy into the future. That's what motivates me. That's what motivated me during the global financial crisis: trying to keep the economy out of recession which we did; trying to prevent mass unemployment which we did; trying to ensure that we continue to keep this country strong despite the financial crisis in Europe. That's what motivates me and the government. I think we're doing okay on that score and I think it's important that we look on that main game, rather than be distracted by all the bits and pieces of day to day popular politics."

Breathtaking – and a statement that ensures Rudd's place in history as the arch-villain of Labor, the man who for reasons of pure power lust brought his own party to its knees.

Rudd truly believes, along with all his ALP colleagues, that his and Wayne Swan's stewardship of the Australian economy is what has delivered Australians a miracle economy at a time when our major trading partners are sliding toward the abyss.

He believes that, but he also knows that there are only two scenarios that will avoid handing government on a platter to the Abbott Coalition, thereby undoing what Rudd considers to be Labor's best work.

The choices are: Rudd backs Gillard to the hilt, or Rudd wins the spill and the subsequent election.

He knows he won't do the first. And on the second slim possibility he is willing to gamble the entire future of the ALP and, if you subscribe to his view of Labor's roles in navigating the GFC, the economic future of every Australian.

If this were a game, it would be thrilling. As things stand, it's terrifying. Australia has low unemployment, job creation is outpacing job losses, we have relatively low net public debt and a sensible fiscal consolidation program that will gradually deflate both our national debt and trim fat from the public service over years ahead.

Most serious commentators acknowledge the ongoing strength of the economy, and none has been brave enough to suggest that the Abbott/Hockey alternative can work – massive spending cuts to fund the repeal of the MRRT and carbon tax but also to maintain Labor's personal tax cuts and pension increases and, most recently, the promise to reinstate the private health rebate for higher income Australians. At this stage, it just doesn't add up.

Some readers will disagree with that analysis, but it is certain Rudd agrees that Labor has got its economic settings right. And he's shown he's willing to risk blowing that up simply because he feels cheated by his own party.

Unless Rudd can conquer his pride and publicly back Gillard in a convincing way, he is, by his own reasoning, putting himself ahead of every other Australian.
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SKippys' prediction: "If Abbott and Gillard are the leaders Gillard will win the next election"
 
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cods
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #1 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 5:32pm
 
I still say it wont happen... he loves what he is doing... creating a stir then leaving the country ...LOL..

he is like the cat playing the mouse.

he knows if he gets the job half the people wont work with him and who in the hell would he trust???????????..Wilkie... oh right?..

I reckon once she has gone.. then he too will go..he just wants her out before himself..

look being Foreign Minister is not much different from being PM.. not in all the fringe benefits..

if they have a spill and he loses he wont be Foreign Minister anymore..

if he resigns.. he losses both ways...

I dont think he will risk it.

he just want this pot to keep perking away thats all
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olde.sault
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #2 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 5:36pm
 
cods wrote on Feb 20th, 2012 at 5:32pm:
I still say it wont happen... he loves what he is doing... creating a stir then leaving the country ...LOL..

he is like the cat playing the mouse.

he knows if he gets the job half the people wont work with him and who in the hell would he trust???????????..Wilkie... oh right?..

I reckon once she has gone.. then he too will go..he just wants her out before himself..

look being Foreign Minister is not much different from being PM.. not in all the fringe benefits..

if they have a spill and he loses he wont be Foreign Minister anymore..

if he resigns.. he losses both ways...

I dont think he will risk it.

he just want this pot to keep perking away thats all


-- They certainly are birds of one feather - neither gives a stuff about Australia

-  but don't stick together.
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corporate_whitey
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #3 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 5:37pm
 
Quote:
Is there a greater hypocrite in Australia than Kevin Rudd?


The video was hilarious, makes him look like a regular Aussie...this leaked video could backfire on Gillard and give Rudd a bounce in the polls ... Cool
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World Wide Working Class Struggle
 
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Andrei.Hicks
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #4 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:05pm
 
The Australian Labor Party right now is in utter chaos and a leadership challenge will cause further disruption as opposed to heal anything.

Shambles.
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Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination - Oscar Wilde
 
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beware
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #5 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:29pm
 
I hope so!!
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Sir Dame Baroness Smithy70
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #6 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:33pm
 
beware wrote on Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:29pm:
I hope so!!


So you'd advocate a 1 party state?
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That's it! You people have stood in my way long enough. I'm going to clown college!
 
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corporate_whitey
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #7 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:36pm
 
Any group or movement which attempts to impose a dictatorship on the Australian people and force Australians to work for it as serfs deserves to be pushed out.... Smiley
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World Wide Working Class Struggle
 
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #8 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:42pm
 

I Predict Gillard will come out of this looking stronger. The Media and Opposition are playing you as fools.( Don't mention the economy). There will be NO Leadership Spill. It is a  game . Everytime  labor gains in the polls, or has a good news story -and Abbott is looking weak. Bam. In general, True blue Australians aren't idiot. They may not be showing support now, but it is only half time !
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #9 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:45pm
 

This could potentially destroy the Liberals more.Its a game of wait and see !
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beware
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #10 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:48pm
 
Quote:
I Predict Gillard will come out of this looking stronger. The Media and Opposition are playing you as fools.( Don't mention the economy). There will be NO Leadership Spill. It is a  game . Everytime  labor gains in the polls, or has a good news story -and Abbott is looking weak. Bam. In general, True blue Australians aren't idiot. They may not be showing support now, but it is only half time !



Sure mate... you need to get out and socialise more and find out what the people are talking about.
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JustcallmeLD
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #11 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:51pm
 
Ok so Australians are idiots, well you let in all those new English & European migrants ,  that like to whinge before seeing how good they have it.
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longweekend58
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #12 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:53pm
 
Quote:
I Predict Gillard will come out of this looking stronger. The Media and Opposition are playing you as fools.( Don't mention the economy). There will be NO Leadership Spill. It is a  game . Everytime  labor gains in the polls, or has a good news story -and Abbott is looking weak. Bam. In general, True blue Australians aren't idiot. They may not be showing support now, but it is only half time !


well justcallmestupid, that analysis is at complete odds to the actual facts or history. your denial should keep you warm at nights however. fantasies can do that for you.
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SKippys' prediction: "If Abbott and Gillard are the leaders Gillard will win the next election"
 
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #13 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 6:55pm
 
Wilkie was on TV the other day saying he had a meeting with Rudd Dudd and said something in the line of 'well in the meeting Rudd certainly does want his old job back'. So why at the same time, Rudd is making out in public as if he doesn't.
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JustcallmeLD
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Re: Will Rudd Destroy Labor?
Reply #14 - Feb 20th, 2012 at 7:01pm
 
Repeat To have such an Discreditable Opposition whom have shown to be WRONG on nearly everything they say and do. Yet they could potentially run the country. Says a lot about the quality of those that could vote for such a mob. Low IQ.


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