http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/carbon-levy-has-failed-...THE carbon tax promised by the Gillard government is unlikely to have a significant effect on either the economy or the use of energy.
But there is some concern that the transition to an emissions trading system in three to five years time could bring a dramatic jump in the carbon price.
The experience in both Europe and New Zealand shows that simply putting a price on carbon has had little influence on behaviour.
Australia's leading climate change economist Warwick McKibbin said it had been established that the only carbon abatement in Europe had been the result of regulation and subsidies, which had boosted the use of solar and wind power.
"A carbon price is just a pure cost and gives you little incentive to avoid it unless you know what will happen in the future," he said.
He said a carbon tax was preferable to an emissions trading system, because it conferred greater certainty, but it was really only an interim step
The chief economist with the New Zealand consultancy Infometrics, Adolf Stroombergen, said the introduction of a carbon emissions trading system 18 months ago had brought some increase in energy prices but had little influence beyond that.
"It has added 3c a litre to the cost of petrol, but we'll probably see that go up 10c a litre over the coming week because of the Middle East. People have got used to prices going up and down," he said.
The Commonwealth Bank's chief New Zealand economist, Chris Tennant-Brown, said environmentalists would regard their scheme as "a bit of a disaster", with the change in price too small to generate change in behaviour.