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Question: Is this logic correct?



« Created by: iconoclast on: Feb 13th, 2011 at 11:01am »

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Please critique my logic here (Read 4765 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #60 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 9:49am
 
Sprintcyclist wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 12:15am:
equit - you are wrong again.

domestic violence is VERY equally spread, 50/50

accepting verbal violence, women are just a violent as men.
course, very few women accept that.
they are happy to verbally abuse any man they can .



That's simply CRAP!
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perceptions_now
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #61 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 9:52am
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 8:22am:
iconoclast wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 2:48pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 1:35pm:
Quote:
That a very large % of crime and social dysfunctionality is not a function of absolute level of of resource access (i.e. poverty).

My claim is that a considerable % of violent, deviant and dysfunctional behaviour is a result of an individual's pereceived RELATIVE position in society and not just a lack of resources.


"Relative position" in society is how 'poverty' is determined....

There is no real 'absolute' level of resource access....
Different countries, and societies have different levels of 'resource access' and different poverty levels....



Then under such a definition, Saudi arabia which provides generously
to its citizens from oil income, still has poverty.

Would a society with 100K median income still have poor people?
i.e. in your defintion poverty is unfairness in resource allocation and not a measure of an individual's absolute ability to survive based on the resources they are allocated.  


Yes, a society with a 100k median income would still have poor people   ....

The cost of living is relative to the median income....the more the 'average' person earns, the more things cost...


That is correct, just ask the average Zimbabweans!
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #62 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 9:54am
 


Sprintcyclist wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 12:15am:
equit - you are wrong again.

domestic violence is VERY equally spread, 50/50

accepting verbal violence, women are just a violent as men.
course, very few women accept that.
they are happy to verbally abuse any man they can .




Yo Sprint!

Once again, you seem to have missed a keyword in my post: "serious"!

I never asserted that domestic violence was exclusively a male thing - in fact, I was referring to serious violent crime in general: Quote:
single most common factor in serious violent crime is gender
!

It is an undisputable fact that: in all walks of life and in all settings, men significantly-outnumber women as perpetrators of violent crimes, i.e. ones that result in physical injury, deliberate property damage and/or death!


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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #63 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:38am
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 8:22am:
iconoclast wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 2:48pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 1:35pm:
Quote:
That a very large % of crime and social dysfunctionality is not a function of absolute level of of resource access (i.e. poverty).

My claim is that a considerable % of violent, deviant and dysfunctional behaviour is a result of an individual's pereceived RELATIVE position in society and not just a lack of resources.


"Relative position" in society is how 'poverty' is determined....

There is no real 'absolute' level of resource access....
Different countries, and societies have different levels of 'resource access' and different poverty levels....



Then under such a definition, Saudi arabia which provides generously
to its citizens from oil income, still has poverty.

Would a society with 100K median income still have poor people?
i.e. in your defintion poverty is unfairness in resource allocation and not a measure of an individual's absolute ability to survive based on the resources they are allocated.  


Yes, a society with a 100k median income would still have poor people....

The cost of living is relative to the median income....the more the 'average' person earns, the more things cost...


I don't believe this is true in an absolute sense. In an absolute sense it costs me much less these days to have the basics of life as a % of my income. e.g. a 2nd hand fridge, washing machine, microwave, bed, vacuum cleaner etc are unbelievably cheap. These good were much more expensive 30 yrs ago (if they existed).

There are several causal factors: more efficient manufacturing and cheap foreign labour but the consequence is that everyone even on 20K p.a. has an absolute level of living higher than a person in the 1950s who scrubbed floors, boiled clothes and slaved over a stove.
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iconoclast
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #64 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:41am
 
perceptions_now wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 9:52am:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 8:22am:
iconoclast wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 2:48pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 1:35pm:
Quote:
That a very large % of crime and social dysfunctionality is not a function of absolute level of of resource access (i.e. poverty).

My claim is that a considerable % of violent, deviant and dysfunctional behaviour is a result of an individual's pereceived RELATIVE position in society and not just a lack of resources.


"Relative position" in society is how 'poverty' is determined....

There is no real 'absolute' level of resource access....
Different countries, and societies have different levels of 'resource access' and different poverty levels....



Then under such a definition, Saudi arabia which provides generously
to its citizens from oil income, still has poverty.

Would a society with 100K median income still have poor people?
i.e. in your defintion poverty is unfairness in resource allocation and not a measure of an individual's absolute ability to survive based on the resources they are allocated.  


Yes, a society with a 100k median income would still have poor people   ....

The cost of living is relative to the median income....the more the 'average' person earns, the more things cost...


That is correct, just ask the average Zimbabweans!



The point is that the poorest australian has an absolute standard of living probably higher than the zimbabwean middle class. If poverty is not defined in terms of standard of living (food, shelter etc) needed to survive then it can be defined as anything in relative terms.

In this sense, actress Shirley McLean in impoverished compared to Johnny Depp.

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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #65 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:44am
 
Equitist wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 9:54am:
Sprintcyclist wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 12:15am:
equit - you are wrong again.

domestic violence is VERY equally spread, 50/50

accepting verbal violence, women are just a violent as men.
course, very few women accept that.
they are happy to verbally abuse any man they can .




Yo Sprint!

Once again, you seem to have missed a keyword in my post: "serious"!

I never asserted that domestic violence was exclusively a male thing - in fact, I was referring to serious violent crime in general: Quote:
single most common factor in serious violent crime is gender
!

It is an undisputable fact that: in all walks of life and in all settings, men significantly-outnumber women as perpetrators of violent crimes, i.e. ones that result in physical injury, deliberate property damage and/or death!





I'm afraid this is true.

It is also true that young males are the primary stars in any video show depicting people doing moronic, dangerous things.

The "risk" guage is switched off in young makes along with several other vital pieces of cognitive functioning.

I think it comes with the hormones.
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #66 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:48am
 
Equitist wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 10:39pm:
freediver wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 10:34pm:
I think most violent crime is either caused by drug addiction or passion (eg hatred, love, jelousy etc - hence the term crime of passion), so it is fairly unrelated to either absolute or relative wealth.


In fact, she single most common factor in serious violent crime is gender - which is not a dominant factor in relative poverty (if anything, it is correlated in the opposite direction - i.e. overall, men earn significantly more money and accumulate more wealth than women)...




Yet if impoverished women had the physical means to effect violence then they could quite possibly end up even with males in the violence stakes- especially if their nurturing side in raising children was preserved.

Impoverished females more often end up in prostitution instead.
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #67 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:50am
 
Equitist wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 8:10pm:
There's some good rhetorical questions there - but I doubt you'll win over many right whingers with the use of Somalis in your example...

The way that some on here write about that particular minority group, you might think that they were public enemy No. 2 in Oz (second of course to the generic "Muslim")...



I'd prefer to stick to the logic and evidence than drag in past debates and an endless  values conflict.
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #68 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:50am
 



Sadly and ironically, our society and economy are structured in such a way that most women end up effectively-prostituting themselves to men, in order that they and their children can survive!  Some of them do it on a formal cash-in-hand basis...



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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #69 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:51am
 
Equitist wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 8:23pm:
iconoclast wrote on Feb 13th, 2011 at 10:57am:
I wish to make a simple assertion: That a very large % of crime and social dysfunctionality is not a function of absolute level of of resource access (i.e. poverty).

My claim is that a considerable % of violent, deviant and dysfunctional behaviour is a result of an individual's pereceived RELATIVE position in society and not just a lack of resources.

[...]

If this assertion is true then it is logical to conclude that no amount of resourcing will change it and a different kind of policy is required.



Leaving aside the critique of the logic about the problem for now, I'm curious to know what form that "different kind of policy" might take...




We'll get  to that once the debate is more developed.
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #70 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:56am
 



iconoclast wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:51am:
Equitist wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 8:23pm:
iconoclast wrote on Feb 13th, 2011 at 10:57am:
I wish to make a simple assertion: That a very large % of crime and social dysfunctionality is not a function of absolute level of of resource access (i.e. poverty).

My claim is that a considerable % of violent, deviant and dysfunctional behaviour is a result of an individual's pereceived RELATIVE position in society and not just a lack of resources.

[...]

If this assertion is true then it is logical to conclude that no amount of resourcing will change it and a different kind of policy is required.



Leaving aside the critique of the logic about the problem for now, I'm curious to know what form that "different kind of policy" might take...




We'll get  to that once the debate is more developed.


Beware: circular debates such as these rarely 'develop' per se - they tend to devolve...then drop off the page due to a combination of frustration, boredom and disinterest...


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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #71 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 11:06am
 
Axle wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 8:47pm:
iconoclast wrote on Feb 13th, 2011 at 10:57am:
I wish to make a simple assertion: That a very large % of crime and social dysfunctionality is not a function of absolute level of of resource access (i.e. poverty).

My claim is that a considerable % of violent, deviant and dysfunctional behaviour is a result of an individual's pereceived RELATIVE position in society and not just a lack of resources.

I make this  claim based on the following: Absolute level of resources available to all levels of Australian society have increased since WWII. Yet violent crime especially has been on the increase since 2000 (AIC figures).

In practical terms, anyone can fall down in the street. Most people have mobiles to call 000 and an ambulance will turn up. In hospital they will receive world class care, surgery, rehab and if unfit for work, a pension for life. It is not possible for any Australian to starve. Some may be temporarily homeless, but this is often a result of emotional and family issues. With low unemployment, plenty of menial jobs are available and will allow people to survive quite well. Certainly better than much of SE asia.

If relative position is the driving factor (I am on the bottom, and that
is unfair no matter how well I live) then crime will always be with us since we are primarily social primates with an acute sense of relative position.

If we didn't have migrants or some other group then we would find minor differences amongst ourselves to create a hierarchy. This is the point of Gulliver's Travels where how one opens an egg defines a group, their alien-ness and our fear of them.

If this assertion is correct then no amount of resourcing will assist in the prevention of crime or the creation of ghettos. All ghettos are a paradise compared to somalia, yet the fact that its inhabitants are on the bottom of society is not lost on them and breeds resentment and nonparticipation that is expressed in crime, addiction, poor education, teen birth rates etc.

If this assertion is true then it is logical to conclude that no amount of resourcing will change it and a different kind of policy is required.




1. You have just arbitrarily stuck your reason together with alleged increasing violent crime without establishing that connection. You might as well have said that greenhouse gases have been increasing and so has violent crime. I find the claim of rising violent crime spurious. You haven't gone past a vague reference to some statistics. I think  crime, including violent crime fluctuates.

2. How does your idea fly with people in the situation you imagine who do not commit any crime- the vast majority?  Crime only occurs at the hands of miniscule percentage of the population. If your scenario is a necessary cause, which hasn't been demonstrated, it's certainly not a sufficient cause.

3. You said "perceived relative position". Hell, after the richest man in oz we'd all be perceiving a relative lowly existence. We'd all be committing violent crime according to you. It doesn't happen.

Your thesis is empirically spurious and theoretically bankrupt.


I'll address your points in their sequence.

1. The focus on causal variables is not as arbitrary as choosing say greenhouse gases which are an obviously fallacious covariate. Indeed, poverty has been historically identified as a major cause of crime going back to the days of transportation where we are told thousands were unjustly convicted and transported for daring to steal a loaf of bread to feed their family. Poverty has a host of other correlates: poor education, ill health, unemployment, teen pregnancy etc. All of these are barriers to living full, healthy lives and can constitute a motive to pursue crime. I have not arbitrarily chosen poverty as a causal factor. It is a major topic of research in criminology and has been for several hundred years. An implicit assumption has been that once people were lifted out of poverty and were not forced into crime in order to survive, then crime levels should drop.

2. In terms of necessary and sufficient condition- the very basis of causation- i can only conclude that in most social issues they do not apply deterministically as in the physical sciences. A petrol air mix of certain proportions will ALWAYS explode in the presence of a spark of certain gap. In social phenomenon, the causation seems to be more probabilistic. Hence the focus on risk factors in medicine. People with high blood pressure will not ALWAYS have a stroke, but in probabilistic terms, causation still exists.

3. See my above point. Not all people perceiving themselves to be in a poor relative position will commit crime, but the probabilities can be higher - reflecting an imperfect causal relationship. You do not die every time you have too much to drink,. That does not mean that alcohol is not causal in road accidents.

You need to study more scientific method.
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #72 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 11:19am
 
Life_goes_on wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 8:48pm:
Quote:
So crime has dropped? Not if we look at gross indicators e.g.


Between 1995 and 2007 sexual assault went from 1000/month to about 1600/month. See here

http://www.aic.gov.au/en/statistics/violent%20crime/sexual%20assault.aspx

Crimes involvlng violence went from 600/100,000 to over 800/100,000  in the same time span. http://www.aic.gov.au/statistics/violent%20crime.aspx

Homicide stats have fallen very slightly however this may reflect gains in medical trauma management. See here

http://www.aic.gov.au/statistics/homicide.aspx

Drug offences look flat. http://www.aic.gov.au/statistics/drug/offences.aspx


While it is always possible to show whatever you want in stats by looking at subpopulations and regions, gross indicators are hard to explain away.


Actually, they're not that hard to "explain away". For both sexual assaults and violent crime, people are becoming more and more likely to report incidents that previously would have passed without police involvement. With sexual assaults, what actually constitutes an assault has been broadened and the social stigma of reporting such a crime has lessened.

Go back a couple of decades and pub fight was something you walked around on your way to the bar without a second thought. These days the police usually turn up.

The introduction of the mobile phone has contributed to the increase in reported crime.

Comparing crime stats is extremely difficult. Even for the same crime category you're rarely comparing apples with apples.

And in regards to your opening post, I think you're forgetting about what are probably the two biggest motivators for crime.

Greed and Anger.



This an excellent post and really the kind of debate I was looking for. Thank you.

This begs the question: if the phenomenon of crime is constantly changing to the extent that our definitions of different crimes do not hold from one decade to the next  and our propensity to report it shifts as well, then why do we bother recording it? Money and
politics come to mind of course.

However, even given the changing nature of crime and its reporting, I still believe that if poverty was a driving factor in crime then noticeable changes should have been observed in the data.

My logic: life span has increased markedly over 50 years. In the
order of 30% gains? Partly due to advances in medicine both acute and chronic treatments. But within the data we would have seen DRAMATICALLY reduced levels of diseases/conditions associated with
poverty e.g.

rickets
RHD
Aenemia
Iodine deficiency
failure to thrive (growth)
parasite loads
and many others

These changes to health status are so huge, reflecting a massive impact on poverty that even in the face of sloppy stats and changing
definitions we should have seen a reduction in crime if poverty was indeed causal.

No-one steals bread. But they do steal cars and TVs.
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #73 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 11:21am
 
Equitist wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:56am:
iconoclast wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:51am:
Equitist wrote on Feb 14th, 2011 at 8:23pm:
iconoclast wrote on Feb 13th, 2011 at 10:57am:
I wish to make a simple assertion: That a very large % of crime and social dysfunctionality is not a function of absolute level of of resource access (i.e. poverty).

My claim is that a considerable % of violent, deviant and dysfunctional behaviour is a result of an individual's pereceived RELATIVE position in society and not just a lack of resources.

[...]

If this assertion is true then it is logical to conclude that no amount of resourcing will change it and a different kind of policy is required.



Leaving aside the critique of the logic about the problem for now, I'm curious to know what form that "different kind of policy" might take...




We'll get  to that once the debate is more developed.


Beware: circular debates such as these rarely 'develop' per se - they tend to devolve...then drop off the page due to a combination of frustration, boredom and disinterest...




Or we could experience the most embarrassing of events":  premature policy formulation... Wink
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Re: Please critique my logic here
Reply #74 - Feb 15th, 2011 at 11:24am
 
Equitist wrote on Feb 15th, 2011 at 10:50am:
Sadly and ironically, our society and economy are structured in such a way that most women end up effectively-prostituting themselves to men, in order that they and their children can survive!  Some of them do it on a formal cash-in-hand basis...






Under that definition I have been an industrial whore for over 30 years.  I just looked at the ceiling and thought of superannuation...
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