You gotta love it!

Courtesy of StingingNettle @ Taoeconomics.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/20-shocking-new-economic-records-tha...

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And that's only the known (overt) debt, it does not include unfunded liabilities for Pensions & Health ($50 Trillion +), not covert Debt, including the FED (who knows)!
Chart courtesy of StingingNettle @ taoeconomics.

Spiralling US Debt also comes at a time when the US GDP is stalling!

World food shortage in 10 years

A GLOBAL population explosion combined with the steady effects of climate change are forecast to create a worldwide food shortage in the next 10 years, but the news isn't all bad for some countries.

The United States, China, Ethiopia and parts of northern Europe are among the select few expected to be able to grow more crops as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall, according to a study.

However, those gains will not be enough to stave off an increase in world starvation and price spikes for food as a result of a shortfall in three of the four main cereal crops, said the report by the Universal Ecological Fund, a non-profit group.

The forecast is based on UN figures about climate change released in 2007, and projects the impact of temperature changes that will leave the planet at least 2.4 degrees Celsius warmer by  2020.

While there are more recent analyses that make slight allowances for how the Earth may adjust itself, researchers used the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, combined with ``the business-as-usual path the world is currently following,'' said lead author Liliana Hisas.

The analysis describes a scenario in which a population boom packs the world with an additional 890 million people by 2020, for a total of 7.8 billion.

Changes in agriculture wrought by swings in rain and temperature then forge across-the-board deficits in wheat, rice and maize, meaning there will not be enough to feed all those extra mouths.

The result will be more prevalent hunger -- one in five people going hungry, up from the current rate of one in seven -- and food price spikes of up to 20 per cent, according to the study.

"At least every other newborn in Africa; one in every four newborns in Asia; and one in every seven newborns in Latin America and the Caribbean would be sentenced to undernourishment and malnutrition,'' it said.

On the whole, Africa is expected to be the hardest hit. Due to hotter, drier temperatures, nearly two-thirds of arable land on the continent could be lost by 2025, and maize growing could die out completely in some areas, according to the study.

It said grape and olive growing in Mediterranean countries like Italy, Spain and France will suffer due to mounting dryness, as will the vineyards of California -- a $US3.9 billion ($A3.91 billion) industry.

For the United States, a major global grain producer, wheat crops are forecast to grow five to 20 per cent, while corn crops could falter slightly.

Northern Europe could see wheat yields climb between three and four per cent.

Meanwhile, the vast continent of Asia will see drastically different impacts in crop growth and rainfall.

India, the second largest world producer of rice and wheat, could see yields fall 30 per cent, the study said.

But not so for China, the world's biggest producer of wheat and rice, which is expected to boost yields up to 20 per cent.

The effects of climate change are expected to be harsher for India because of its tropical climate, as opposed to China, which lies in the temperate zone. Growers in Bangladesh and Pakistan could also expect to see declines.

"Currently, 80 per cent of global agriculture depends on rain,'' said Hisas.

Ethiopia was singled out in Africa as a country that could benefit because higher temperatures could combine with rainfall changes to boost the growth of its key crop, coffee. Ethiopia is the world's sixth largest coffee producer.

The US and China are among those expected to grow more of every main cereal group.

Soybean production is forecast to result in a five percent surplus, but the other three will see deficits across the world due to rising demand: a 14 per cent shortfall in wheat, 11 per cent for rice and nine percent for maize.

Latin America will see an overall decline in cereal yield of 2.5 to five per cent by 2020. Australia's forecast was mixed: significant yield drops in the southwest but moderate increases in the northeast.

The study urged nations to adjust crop timing and move livestock to areas where water availability is improved.

Some dietary habits may have to shift, such as consuming more potatoes, beans and lentils instead of cereal grains and animal proteins.

But the primary change it recommended was reducing harmful pollutants in the atmosphere, or greenhouse gases.

"Reducing GHG emissions is the first and most important step. Efforts so far have been numerous, but unsuccessful,'' the study said.

Link -
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/world-food-shortage-in-10-years/story-e6f...
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Courtesy of StingingNettle @ TaoEconomics




It'll never happen, at least not as depicted in this video!

Why?

Because the DOW will never reach a new all time high of 14,207, as depicted at the start of the video!

However, other than that error, the US$ and many other "Fiat currencies" do seem set for an unpleasant future.

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 22^nd, 2011 at 11:48am:


A question was posed on another site, regarding how many NEW BANKS have started in the USA, in the last 20 years and the following article answers much more than that basic question.
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September 4, 2010 – The latest FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile reports that for the first time in almost ten years, the number of banks has declined by more than 100 in a single quarter.

The number of banking institutions declined by 104 for the quarter ending June 30, the most since 113 in the third quarter of 2000.  Banking failures accounted for the loss of 45 banks with the remaining due to mergers with other banks.  With numerous banks reporting losses due to the financial crisis and weak economy, it is no surprise that the number of banks are dwindling.

Prior to the banking crisis, the number of new banking charters routinely averaged 100 – 200 per year.  For the quarter ending June 30, for the first time in 38 years for which data is available, no new banks were started.

The reduction in the number of banks continues a long term trend.  The US banking industry has been shrinking dramatically for the past 20 years.  Since 1990, the US has lost a total of 7,328 banks -  a reduction of 46%.   In 1990 the US had a total of 15,158 commercial banks and savings institutions.   At June 30, the number of banking institutions had declined to 7,830.

Despite two major banking crises in the past two decades the vast majority of banks have not disappeared through failures but rather by mergers.  Of the 7,328 banks that have disappeared since 1990, banking failures accounted for only 1,202 (16.4%) of the vanished banks.

The majority of assets in the banking industry are now concentrated in the largest institutions.  The most recent numbers reported show that the there are 105 banking institutions with assets of $10 billion or greater.  These 105 institutions, representing only 1.3% of the banks in the US control a staggering  78.4% of total banking assets, representing $10.4 trillion dollars.  The remaining 7,725 banks have only 21.6% of total banking industry assets.


Link -
http://problembanklist.com/vanishing-banks-us-loses-banks-since-0188/

PS - the chart is for Gizmo?

Overpopulation in Canada will prove THE single greatest issue facing Canadians in the 21st century.  Continued population overloading degrades your environment, standard of living and quality of life.  It shreds natural animal habitat creating mass extinctions, degrades water systems and accelerates global climate destabilization.

Nothing good can come from endless Canadian population growth!  Scientists and environmentalist warn of our approaching predicaments as to “Peak Oil” ; “Peak Water” ; “Peak resources” ; “Peak Animal Extinctions” ; and “Peak Climate destabilization” –SO evident in areas like Australia, Brazil, China and many other places now being swept by uncommon storms.

“We must alert and organize the world’s people to pressure world leaders to take specific steps to solve the two root causes of our environmental crises – exploding population growth and wasteful consumption of irreplaceable resources. Over-consumption and overpopulation underlie every environmental problem we face today.”   Jacques-Yves Cousteau, Oceanographer

Several Canadian writers that promote endless population growth engage the fallacy of, “The real challenge is in improved management and sharing of dwindling resources and the skilful maintenance of a stressed environment. “  Fat chance to skillfully ‘guide’ storms like Katrina or what hit Brazil last week!

Harvard scholar and biologist Dr. E.O. Wilson reputes that naïve statement with:
“The raging monster upon the land is population growth. In its presence, sustainability is but a fragile theoretical construct.  To say, as many do, that the difficulties of nations are not due to people, but to poor ideology and land-use management is sophistic.”

Canadian leaders and citizens may ignore such environmental problems, but those accelerating predicaments will not ignore anyone in Canada—plant, animal or humans.  I find it irresponsible at the highest levels when journalists promote endless population growth, or that they think things will be ‘all right’ when the human race levels off at 9.2 billion in 40 years.  We currently add 1.0 billion humans every 13 years.

They neglect to talk about massive destruction of Earth’s climate systems along the way.  They refuse to address in excess of 80 to 100 species suffering extinction DAILY around the planet.  (Source: Oxford University professor Norman Meyer, UK)  They fail to understand water shortages and water contamination by human abuse of the environment via population growth.   They lack understanding of such disastrous phenomena as the three million tons of floating plastic in the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch” west of Vancouver from humans tossing 2.5 million pieces of plastic every hour around the globe into the oceans.  Marine life deaths and contamination run into the millions.

They ignore that such civilizations as China, India, Mexico and Bangladesh suffer enormous problems ‘because’ they failed to stabilize their populations 50 years ago.  Once manifested, all their citizens suffer the misery of human population overload.

Why?  Why would Canadians run themselves into a Faustian Bargain that leads to Hobson’s Choice?    Why sell your souls for immediate gain but long term loss for your children.  Why race toward Hobson’s Choice where you enjoy only two choices. Door number “1” allows you to walk through it and over a cliff.  Door number “2” allows you to walk through and into quick sand.   What’s the point of  committing Canada to such a horrific future already manifested by two to three billion people around this overcrowded planet?

Canadians must ask themselves whether or not they can keep immigrating themselves into Hobson’s Choice and why.

OPEC poised to dominate global energy markets

The OPEC domination of the global energy markets is set to grow, says BP in its just released BP Energy Outlook, and it made headlines all over the globe, sending shivers through some spines. The outlook underlined that world is entering an era of OPEC dominance over the markets.

BP’s forecast shows that over the next 20 years OPEC will become as powerful as it was in its golden years in the 70’s — in the immediate aftermath of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. BP Energy Outlook 2030 predicts that the OPEC would see its market share rise to 46 per cent from the current 40 percent, over the coming two decades — “a position not seen since 1977.”

With 75 percent of growth in global oil reserves over the next two decades, to come from OPEC nations, Kuwait, Iran, Angola, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria, its market share is bound to go up.

And now, with unrestrained non-OPEC oil-output growth slowing, global inventories are set to slide, making OPEC a much more potent market force than in recent times.

The BP Energy Outlook also confirms that the world will need to explore in remote regions, like the Arctic and deeper water than ever before, if it is to keep pace with a 1.7 percent annual rise in consumption — a 39 percent increase over 20 years, to about 102 million bpd by 2030, an increase of 16.5 million bpd from today’s level.

Saudi Arabia should be able to add another 3 million barrels, and the output addition from Iraq is to be significant too, from the current 2.5 million bpd to 5.5 million bpd.

An additional 2 million bpd of production should come from Canada’s controversial oil sands, while biofuels made from corn or sugar are predicted to provide a huge 5 million bpd.

The BP projections make it clear that oil will probably be the slowest growing source of energy, with huge extra demand for renewable, gas and coal also adding to pressure on the world’s resources. Oil is currently the dominant source of world energy, closely followed by coal, on which China is dependent for much of its industrial fuel.

In the meantime, brushing aside the Peak Oil theorists, Iraq and Venezuela are now claiming to have considerably larger reserves than earlier thought. As per, Iraq’s Oil Ministry’s official spokesman, Assem Jihad, Iraq’s oil reserves have now touched 500 billion barrels. “The size of Iraq’s oil reserves has reached about 500 billion barrels nowadays, whilst the previous oil reserves had reached 143 billion barrels,” Jihad said, adding that the above increase represent the 64 oil fields only.

And Venezuela is also claiming to have overtaken Saudi Arabia as the world leader in oil reserves with certified deposits leaping to 297 billion barrels at the end of 2010, President Hugo Chavez’s government said last week.

Link -
http://arabnews.com/economy/article240174.ece
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All sorts of claims can be made about Reserves & spare capacity and have been previously!

That said, the test of these claims is ACTUAL PRODUCTION and the last 5 years tells a tale, whislt the next 5 years will tell an even bigger tale.

Following are the top producing nations, in Thousands of Barrels per  Day (Total Oil Supply), from 2005 to 2010, as provided by the EIA -
Russia - 9,677; 9,878; 9,794; 9,933; 10,126
Saudi Arabia - 10,665; 10,248 10,783; 9,759; 10,017
United States - 8,330; 8,456; 8,514; 9,155; 9,563
Iran - 4,149; 4,039; 4,179; 4,176; 4,253
China - 3,865; 3,925; 3,986; 3,995; 4,234
Canada - 3,286; 3,433; 3,331; 3,294; 3,311
Mexico - 3,709; 3,500; 3,186; 3,001; 2,992
United Arab Emirates - 2,948; 2,947; 3,046; 2,794; 2,811
Brazil - 2,164; 2,282; 2,439; 2,577; 2,720
Kuwait - 2,662; 2,603; 2,728; 2,496; TBA
Nigeria - 2,442; 2,352; 2,168; 2,211; 2,434
Iraq - 2,009; 2,096; 2,385; 2,400; 2,399
Venezuela - 2,803; 2,666; 2,638; 2,471; 2,354
Norway - 2,786; 2,564; 2,463; 2,350; 2,118
Kazakhstan - 1,387; 1,445; 1,430; 1,540; 1,598
Qatar - 1,138; 1,121; 1,203; 1,212; 1,397
United Kingdom (Offshore) - 1,602; 1,601; 1,502; 1,422; 1,319

Link -
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=1&cid...

The future will see if Reserves or Production tell the real story!

South Africa's population to shrink after 2030

Estimates show that from 2030 onwards, South Africa will have a decreasing population. This is according to the 2009/10 South Africa Survey published by the South African Institute of Race Relations in Johannesburg this week.  

Between 2010 and 2030, South Africa’s population will grow, although at a decreasing rate each year.

By 2030 South Africa’s population will be 53.81 million. The population will then decrease to 53.74 million by 2035, and to 53.28 million by 2040, according to data from the Institute of Futures Research at the University of Stellenbosch cited in the Survey.

One of the main reasons for this is the long term impact of HIV/AIDS.

In South Africa, the number of deaths in a year is making up an increasingly higher proportion of the number of births. In 1985, deaths were 25% of births. This was expected by the Actuarial Society of South Africa to increase to 87% of births by 2021.

Thuthukani Ndebele, a researcher at the Institute, said, ‘If this trend continues, there will soon be more deaths than births in South Africa. It is evident that the HIV/AIDS pandemic has resulted in an increasing number of deaths. These deaths are mostly among people in the child-bearing age group, which will result in decreasing numbers of births.’

However, a lower fertility rate will also contribute to population shrinkage. Between 2001 and 2010, South Africa’s fertility rate decreased from 2.86 to 2.38 births per woman.

By 2040, the fertility rate will have dropped to 1.98 births per woman. This is lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which is needed for the population to reproduce itself.

Ndebele said, ‘Lower fertility rates are related to an increase in access to education and contraceptives, which results in women having fewer children.

‘A combination of increasing deaths as a result of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as lower fertility rates will result in population shrinkage after 2030. This can be positive as there will be less strain on resources in South Africa. However, it will also be negative, as there will be fewer people to contribute to the economy and its internal consumer markets.’

Link -
http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/article871410.ece/South-Africas-population-to-s...
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A number of nations today are experiencing population decline, stretching from North Asia (Japan) through to Eastern Europe through Russia including Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia, Germany, Hungary, and now Italy.

Countries rapidly approaching population decline include Greece, Spain, Cuba, Uruguay, Denmark, Finland, Austria and Lesotho.

There is little doubt that the number of countries with a declining Population is growing and that a declining Population will will cause an Economic slowdown, particularly where it is accompanied by an Aging Population, which is what we face Globally, over the next 20-40 years.

If we could turn back time, then a repeat of the 1945-1964 Baby Boom would be a likely candidate, as an avenue to fix our dilemma.

But, before anyone gets overly excited at that prospect, let me say that is not possible, as we are already over the sustainable level of Global Population, because of -
1)  Peak Energy (Oil) Production, which will require we Consume less Energy and the primary way to achieve that goal, is via a lower Population.

2) Peak Food Production,  which will require we Consume less Food and the primary way to achieve that goal, is via a lower Population.

3) Peak Climate, which will contribute to problems in Agriculture, due to more Droughts, Floods & other extreme weather events, which means it will become more & more difficult to sustain the current Population.