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ban how to vote cards? (Read 393 times)
freediver
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ban how to vote cards?
Aug 15th, 2010 at 2:17pm
 
There was an interesting discussion here about banning how to vote card because too many people follow them, driven mostly by Marc and Muso, with Marc claiming that they should be banned because too many lazy people follow them:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1187572706/75#87

However, if you look at the reality it seems they don't. Take the Greens for example:

Quote:
Greens preferences unlikely to help Libs

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-preferences-unlikely-to-help-libs/story-fn59niix-1225905088489

THE Coalition cannot bank on attracting a higher share of Greens preferences than the 20 per cent it secured at the 2007 election

Pollsters, analysts and the Greens themselves say that although the Greens are set to grab a higher primary vote than the 7.8 per cent in 2007, their preferences will again run about 80-20 in Labor's favour.

Greens preferences could be critical in a tight election race, with a 10-percentage-point movement in the preferences split equivalent to a one-percentage-point change for each party in the two-party-preferred result. For example, if the preferences flowed 70-30, instead of 80-20, it would be expected to cut a Labor two-party-preferred lead of, say, 52-48 per cent to 51-49.

Newspoll chief executive Martin O'Shannassy said unpublished polling over the past month showed an approximate 80-20 preferences split from Greens votes, closely matching the 2007 result.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

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Mr O'Shannassy said 18 to 24-year-olds and disaffected Labor voters had boosted the Greens primary vote to an average 11.3 per cent over the past year, and their preference flows ran overwhelmingly in Labor's favour.

"The primary vote shows a solidification and restoration of the Coalition base nationally in recent months," Mr O'Shannessy said. "It doesn't look like many existing Coalition voters are going to the Greens and then coming back with their preference.

"The Greens' primary vote among 18 to 24-year-olds has been high -- 17, 18, 19 per cent. It appears from our research that they are saying Labor next. This might change in coming years, but not for this election campaign."

Greens leader Bob Brown's chief of staff, Ben Oquist, said first-time voters added an unpredictable element to the preference story. "Young voters aren't yet brand loyal to either side of politics, so they are going to be more volatile with their preferences than long-time Greens voters," Mr Oquist said. "They are going to favour Labor over Liberal, but by how much is the question."

Mr Oquist said the Greens would pick up some small-l liberal and ex-Democrat voters who saw the party playing a watchdog role in the Senate. But any pro-Coalition influence on preferences would be countered by a Labor-Greens deal that sees Labor giving the Greens their preferences in the Senate in exchange for Greens preferences in most marginal House of Representative seats.

"Overall, my bet is that our preferences will flow about 80-20 again," Mr Oquist said. "If you weigh up that we're preferencing Labor in most marginals against some of that new volatility, it might well end up about the same."

ABC election analyst Antony Green said he anticipated Labor's share of Greens preferences would run even higher than 80 per cent.

"Every time the Greens vote has gone up in the last 15 years, we've seen the proportion of preferences flowing to Labor going up," he said.



In my opinion, 20% is quite high and indicates voters thinking for themselves. Keep in that this is not saying only 20% of voters think for themselves.

Nor should you compare 20% with 100%. If they ranked other candidates in random order, the figure would be 50%. Furthermore, the remaining 80% do not necessarily follow the how to vote cards either and it is likely that many of them rank other candidates in a different order, for example by putting both major parties last as a protest.

Finally, the apparent bias towards Labor does not necessarily have anything at all to do with how to vote cards and is far more likely to be down to policy and personal ideology or conviction, given that on most policy issues Labor is between the Greens and the Coaltion.

In my opinion the biggest influence they have is for the party ranked first. I believe there is strong evidence to back up the view that having someone handing out cards increases the number of first preference votes a party recieves. It is more about showing that the party is serious and has supporters on the ground. It is a polite way to have people approach you near the polling booth under the guise of being helpful.
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