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For the Record (Read 173302 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1650 - Aug 17th, 2019 at 1:01pm
 
As Stocks Dropped Amidst Trade War, Perhaps A Global Recession Is On The Horizon


Summary
The future of the global economy has become uncertain owing to the US/China trade war.

The war has been fought mainly with tariffs, trade sanctions. The US and China have levied tariffs on billion dollars' worth of each other's goods.

On August 5, the US stock market took a sharp dip. This was not unconnected to China's deliberate devaluation of its currency after August 1’s Trump new tariffs.

The trade war has always affected specific vulnerable companies. Most of these are in the automobile, tech, and agricultural industries.

If the trade war escalates, a full global recession could result. So, brace yourself for it.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4285106-stocks-dropped-amidst-trade-war-perhaps...
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Well, in days gone by, Politicians (All of Them) & others could rely on "Certain issues", Prompting Economic Downturns & Recoveries.
But, that "sequence of Events" has now changed AND WE WILL NOT BE RETURNING to them!
As previously stated, there are actually 3 major influencing factors -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
And all of the above, then influence Debt & other related issues!
What is happening now & has been for "some time", is that Politicians (All of Them) & others,
ARE AVOIDING TELLING THE TRUTH, THE WHOLE TRUTH & NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH!
In the finale analysis, it won't make any difference what we are told, nor what we would prefer happens,
THE FINAL OUTCOMES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE REALITIES OF WHAT "EVERYONE ACTUALLY DOES"!
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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1651 - Sep 4th, 2019 at 7:35pm
 
The Politicians (& Others) - All of them, can say & will, what they want,
BUT we have been sliding out of "the NORM" for "some time now"
& THAT WILL CONTINUE, BECAUSE THE UNDERLYING TRENDS HAVE CHANGED & THAT WILL CONTINUE!
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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1652 - Sep 14th, 2019 at 11:33am
 
2020 Will Be The Most Volatile Year In History


Supply Shocks Ahead
Subnormal Growth
Paralyzed Business
Europe in Shambles
Bumpy Ride

I expect 2020 to be one of the most volatile market years of my lifetime.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4291226-2020-will-volatile-year-history?ifp=0
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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1653 - Oct 3rd, 2019 at 4:25pm
 
Those in positions of Power (Political or other), are/have not taken the ALL/LONG TERM view, they have taken the ME ONLY/SHORT TERM positions & that is likely to continue.

It would now seem, that time is getting very close.

So, we should all , be very careful what action/s or Lack of action/s we take, as things may be getting away from us!

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1654 - Oct 4th, 2019 at 8:51pm
 
See you Perceptions_Now.
I'm off to find somewhere safe.
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1655 - Oct 14th, 2019 at 11:11am
 
perceptions_now wrote on Oct 3rd, 2019 at 4:25pm:
It would now seem, that time is getting very close.

So, we should all , be very careful what action/s or Lack of action/s we take, as things may be getting away from us!




Except that you have been saying that since this thread started in 2010

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 17th, 2010 at 11:37am:
And finally, the UPS, DOWNS & VOLATILITY continue everywhere!

The scene is set, nearly time to raise the curtain, turn on the lights & make the action call

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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1656 - Nov 21st, 2019 at 5:52pm
 
Economics & Life - Past, Present & Future

IN THE PAST, PARTICULARLY OVER THE LAST 200 YEARS OR SO, mostly during the Modern Economic Era, WE have seen a largely unique Era, IN ECONOMICS & LIFE IN GENERAL (for most).
During the Modern Economic Era (Largely during the Industrial Revolution), particularly from around 1780 to around 1980, our Global Economics has been mainly influenced by the following - 
1)      Global Demographic Changes – We saw the Global Population explode! It took all of Human History, until around 1800AD, to get to 1 Billion People. Then, we went from around 1.0 Billion in 1800, to around 6 Billion in 2000, in about 200 years.
2)      Energy (Supply & Pricing) - This is one of 3 great enablers, to the modern Demographic surge, particularly between 1945 to 2005.
3)      Climate - We have Basically had a goldilocks climate, since the end of the last ICE AGE, But particularly for the last 200 years, which has greatly assisted Humanity in accommodating our Global Population Explosion, primarily by way of providing sufficient Food & Fresh Water.
4)      Technology - Human Technology exploded and that has provided an enormous boost in Productivity, again assisting the Population explosion in a myriad of ways.
OUR ECONOMIC WELFARE, OVER THE 200 YEARS BETWEEN 1800 TO 2000, WAS LARGELY UNDERWRITTTEN. This was done nearly automatically & Largely in the background, as most of those in charge have set out to do!


AT PRESENT (PARTICULARLY OVER THE LAST 20-30 YEARS OR SO, CHANGE HAS STARTED),
there have been far too many local, National & Global Politicians & Others (including those in Business & Unions), who are more into their own Personal, Short Term Interests, instead of Concentrating on the Best, Long Term Interests of the Whole Population -

1)      Global Demographic Changes – We saw the Global Human Population undergo massive change brought about, arising from the BABY BOOMER GENERATION, which is NOW PEAKING.
2)      Energy (Supply & Pricing) – Supply has started to buckle, as Population grew & Pricing has started to increase.
3)      Climate – The Goldilocks climate has also Buckled, as the Global Population continued to expand.
4)      Technology - Human Technology continued to explode and that has provided an enormous boost in Productivity, again assisting the Population explosion in a myriad of ways.
For quite some time during the Modern Economic Era, the following Major Economic influences, pretty much ensured Economic Growth –
1)      Population Growth
2)      Energy Supply/Pricing
3)      A Goldilocks Global Climate
However, the above 3 Major Economic/Political influencers/Stabilisers have actually ceased or are in the process of ceasing or changing & this has & is, adversely affected Debt Levels & many other issues.

NOW & INTO THE FUTURE?
1)      Global Demographic Changes – The Global Human Population, is now peaking, as the Baby Boomer Generation is Peaking.
2)      Energy (Supply & Pricing) – Supply has started to buckle & Pricing started to increase, as the Global Climate HAS CHANGED & the Global Population has started to Peak.
3)      Climate – The Goldilocks climate has Continued to Buckle, as the Global Population continued to expand. NOW SOME of the Effects are NOW STARTING TO BECOME MORE APPARENT, INCLUDING DROUGHTS, FLOODS & other “so called” NATURAL CATASTROPHES. 
4)      Technology – THE BIG QUESTION IS, will Human Technology again come to our rescue???

The LIKELIHOOD is, that Global problems are heading our way!
The Baby Boomer Bust & Peak Oil, are immediate concerns.
Baby Boomer economic benefits, have now Peaked, their earning & spending peak has  passed. However, Pension & Medical costs, will rise dramatically.
Oil, has also Peaked, largely due to increased Population/Growth. These issues will, increasingly slow consumer demand, increase costs & act as a drag on the global economy.
Beyond Boomer retirement and Oil (Peaking), are the very basis of modern life, which will undergo a massive transformation, the magnitude of the quake, will be a 10.
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1657 - Nov 29th, 2019 at 11:33am
 
The Peak Oil Plateau Is Close


Summary
Oil demand growth is flattening rapidly.
Peak oil demand is likely to happen in the next five to 10 years.
Borrowing has become very difficult, production is limited to cash flow.
Oil prices are likely to rise in the intermediate term.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4308760-peak-oil-plateau-close?ifp=0
==================================
ENERGY is ONE OF A FEW MAJOR INFLUENCING FACTORS! 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1658 - Nov 29th, 2019 at 6:30pm
 
If I was Papua New Guinea.
I would start charging the United Nations for 'Air Conditioning' and be one of the small percentage of nations with good vegetation with the rate based on the percentage of vegetation in the nation.
Providing 'fresh air' for the world.

Money does grow on Trees.  Wink

...afterall, many nations get paid by those who own the satellites, for having them cross their 'space'.  Roll Eyes
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1659 - Dec 31st, 2019 at 1:33pm
 
Recession 2020? Real GDP Already Shrinking In World's Biggest Economies


Summary
The debate rages as to whether we will see the end of the largest economic expansion in history in 2020.

We are already in contraction in real GDP terms in many of the world's largest economies.

I am defining real GDP here as annual GDP growth rate minus core inflation rate.

The US is in real GDP contraction since August, the Eurozone as a whole since July, Germany for 18 months and the UK for two years straight now.


On the precipice of a new decade, the signs of global recession are getting clearer. The United States is not yet in a textbook definition of a recession yet, being two consecutive quarters of nominal GDP contraction, but by some measures recession is already starting. If we look at real GDP, which I’ll define here as GDP annual growth rate minus core inflation rate, we can see that many of the world’s largest economies including the United States look to be sliding into recession as we speak.

Here I’ll take a look at the 5 largest economies by GDP; the United States, China, Japan, the Eurozone as a whole, and the United Kingdom. I will also add in Hong Kong since it is the main financial link between the two biggest economies, the US and China. Before we begin, let me just add a caveat. GDP as a measure of all monetary transactions in an economy in a given period is not a good measure of economic growth, but it is what is most widely used. If for argument’s sake the money supply is fixed and prices fall as the supply of goods and services rises by comparison, then we should see more-or-less steady GDP by monetary measures. However, that number doesn’t mean that the economy isn’t growing in the sense of higher standards of living. Obviously if people are getting more and better stuff for the same volume of monetary transactions, the economy is growing even if GDP doesn’t show it. Likewise, rising GDP does not mean an economy is growing. It just means more money nominally is being spent.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314270-recession-2020-real-gdp-already-shrinki...
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There is also quite a bit of BS, coming from areas of "self interest"!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1660 - Jan 2nd, 2020 at 3:08pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on May 31st, 2016 at 9:31pm:
perceptions_now wrote on May 15th, 2016 at 3:06pm:
I expect 2016 & 2017 to be crunch years!



I will now make a prediction of my own. on the 1/1/2018 when I remind you that your prediction was wrong, you will explain that events have delayed the collapse and you now confidently predict it will happen in 2018 & 2019.

Lets see if my prediction comes true........


Another year has passed........
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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1661 - Jan 3rd, 2020 at 8:33pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 2nd, 2020 at 3:08pm:
The_Barnacle wrote on May 31st, 2016 at 9:31pm:
perceptions_now wrote on May 15th, 2016 at 3:06pm:
I expect 2016 & 2017 to be crunch years!



I will now make a prediction of my own. on the 1/1/2018 when I remind you that your prediction was wrong, you will explain that events have delayed the collapse and you now confidently predict it will happen in 2018 & 2019.

Lets see if my prediction comes true........


Another year has passed........


You will know, WHEN IT ARRIVES!
There are quite a few "interested party's" involved and some of their actions have "postponed the inevitable".

That said, it's a bit like "Climate Change", YOU WILL KNOW "WHEN IT ARRIVES"!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1662 - Jan 11th, 2020 at 1:25pm
 
The Coal Industry Is In Serious Trouble


Summary
Major bankruptcies continue to plague a collapsing coal industry.

Coal faces major headwinds in the form of cheap natural gas and increasingly cost-competitive renewable energies.

Renewables like solar have far more promising futures given technological and societal trends.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315468-coal-industry-is-in-serious-trouble?ifp...
=================================
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1663 - Jan 11th, 2020 at 1:27pm
 
How Much Will Markets Decline: 10%, 25%, Or 50%?


Summary
One can divide stock markets falls into three categories: correction, secular, and fundamental.

A market correction is often not tied to an economic contraction.

Less frequent declines occur when upward earnings and economic trends are temporarily interrupted.

The largest decline by far is caused by fundamental changes in the structure of society.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315366-how-much-will-markets-decline-10-25-50-...
=====================================
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1664 - Jan 11th, 2020 at 2:54pm
 
Speaking of records:

The Australian share market has soared to a new record high on Friday, ... The S&P/ASX 200 Index soared 54.8 points, or 0.8 per cent to 6929

...
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The 2025 election could be a shocker.
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