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For the Record (Read 173347 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1620 - Feb 8th, 2019 at 1:02pm
 
U.S. Oil Production Growth To Halt
The following graph superimposes Brent crude oil prices on top of the recent trend in US oil rig count in the last 12 months:

...
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1621 - Feb 8th, 2019 at 1:07pm
 
The Coming Global Financial Crisis: Debt Exhaustion


Summary
Just as generals fight the last war, central banks always fight the last financial crisis.

Debt in China has blasted from $7 trillion 2008 to $40 trillion in 2018.

The global economy is way past the point of maximum debt saturation, and so the next stop is debt exhaustion.

The global economy is way past the point of maximum debt saturation, and so the next stop is debt exhaustion: a sharp increase in defaults, a rapid decline in demand for more debt, a collapse in asset bubbles that depend on debt and a resulting drop in economic activity, a.k.a. a deep and profound recession that cannot be "fixed" by lowering interest rates or juicing the creation of more debt.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4238463-coming-global-financial-crisis-debt-exh...
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1622 - Feb 12th, 2019 at 10:50am
 
This Time Will Be Different


Summary
Global debt could easily reach $500 trillion in a few years, and yet everyone acts like that is normal and can continue.

Just like subprime mortgage debt triggered the last recession, corporate debt will trigger the next one, which will be different.

The next recovery will be even slower than the last one, which will bring up political tensions and give rise to the far left.

For this reason, in the next decade, politics will be more important to markets than ever before.


For almost 40 years, we’ve lived in an era of low rates and easy money. It let governments and businesses worldwide run up piles of debt.

Global debt could easily reach $500 trillion in a few years. And yet everyone acts like that is normal and can continue.

Just like subprime mortgage debt triggered the last recession, corporate debt will trigger the next one. This will start a liquidity crisis and create havoc in all sorts of “unrelated” markets.

Investors will learn once again that all asset classes globally are correlated in a crisis. There will be few places to hide.

But then, as all recessions do, this recession will end. And recovery will begin, because that is what happens after recessions.

Except it will be different this time.

Recovery from the Great Recession was the slowest on record. The next recovery will be even slower.

Debt is future consumption brought forward. We are now enjoying consumption and growth that won’t happen in the future.

Debt is a drag on future growth. And the amount of debt the world now has will be a monster drag on future growth.


Politics Will Drive Everything
US government debt will easily reach $30 trillion within three years after the next recession.

Once we begin the next economic experiment, another recession will come shortly. Markets will be even more distresses. And the debt will soar to $40 trillion.

Pensions and government deficits will be completely upside down. And then the real fun will begin… quantitative easing on a scale that makes the Bernanke years look like an elementary school picnic. We will simply have no choice.

We are going to see that kind of upheaval in many industries in half a generation. Can you blame frustrated workers? People wishing that they can have their jobs protected? Wanting the government to do something?

In the coming decade, I think politics will be more important to markets than ever before. That is not to say investors can’t figure it out.

But if you are looking at past historical performance to guide your portfolio, you will be disappointed.

We are about to enter an era unlike anything in our own experience or in our history books. Analogies? Surely. History, and economic and political history, will be ever more important.

How should then we invest? One thing I can tell is that the coming decade will bring a lot of volatility. Buy and hold investing will be dangerous. Active management is once again going to be key.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4239159-time-will-different?ifp=0
===================================
Good Luck, WE are going to need it!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1623 - Feb 12th, 2019 at 12:31pm
 
Next Stop: Recession!


Summary
We've enjoyed years of "recovery" since the Great Financial Crisis by literally papering over our problems with newly-printed money, instead of addressing their root causes.

Despite more than a decade of an "all-hands-on-deck" propping up of the financial markets, all the central bankers have to show for it is the widest wealth gap in history coupled with stagnant wages.


We've enjoyed years of "recovery" since the Great Financial Crisis by literally papering over our problems with newly-printed money, instead of addressing their root causes.

B.S. From The BLS
Depending on which OECD country you live in, you can take your 'official' inflation measure and multiply it by either 2x or 3x to get the true rate.

For example, in the US, we've been told that inflation is running at just under 2% for years. In reality, it's been trucking along at closer to 4% to 6% (for rural and urban dwellers, respectively).

To summarize the situation simply: the central banks have been printing up new money and then handing most of it to the wealthy (via QE, which boosts the prices of the assets the rich own).

The Unease Grows…
As increasing concern spreads across the social landscape, for reasons well beyond the financial fibs outlined above, it's becoming increasingly difficult to follow the competing narratives in play.

For example: the economy is either doing great, or it's busy imploding.


For example: the economy is either doing great, or it's busy imploding. Technology promises an amazing future, or it's ruining our minds. The world is awash with cheap fossil fuels, or peak oil is in play and our standard of living is at risk. Either man-made global warming is an imminent existential threat, or there's nothing to worry about.

Lurking beneath every one of these dueling plot lines is this nasty, inescapable realization: Our entire way of life is unsustainable.

It's simply not possible to extract exponentially more raw materials year over year, forever. We all know that. It's not a difficult concept to grasp.

But the entirety of our political system, the mainstream media, and our economy are all predicated on the opposite being true, that endless exponential growth lies ahead.

Like all delusions, this false belief will have a terminal encounter with the limits of reality at some point.

There will come a time when attempts at further growth are counterproductive and cause more harm than benefit. In fact, we've already entered that period.

We know that growth is killing the planet. Yet, each day we are bombarded with messages imploring us all to invest in and hope for more growth.

Those who have been paying attention know, quantitatively as well as morally, that more growth is not the answer. Yet, it's the only path forward offered by those in power.

We can all see and feel that the end of the growth narrative is near - yet not even the barest glimmer of that inevitability is debated in the news or in any halls of power.

As the social anxiety grows over facing a dimming future, our feckless Western press exploits that emotional tension to sell more consumer products and push political agendas, committing sins of commission and omission in the process. Outright lies are published.

Next Stop: Recession!
Huge signals of collapse that everybody needs to know about are breaking out with greater frequency and ever-larger and more worrying amplitude. It's only a matter of time before something truly systemic snaps and we're all forced to contend with terrible ramifications, ones entirely of our own making.

Maybe it will be a nightmare collapse of key ecosystems within the planet's web of life. After all, we're carelessly and swiftly disrupting the interconnected relationships that species took hundreds of millions of years to develop.

Or maybe it will be a political flashpoint resulting in war. A conflict resulting in even a temporary blockade of the free flow of global trade so critical for keeping all of our just-in-time production and distribution systems running smoothly could cause store shelves to go empty in just a matter of days.

More likely in the near term, we'll see an economic/financial meltdown. The third credit bubble of the new century is breaking down just like its predecessors did. Except this one is the largest and most universal in history.

A recession lies dead ahead.
And this next recession promises to be a doozy.
The world is fraught with political and social tensions that were absent in 2008. And it's saddled with many trillions more debt than existed back then.

But worst of all? The public has lost faith in our institutions and political bodies after having been so obviously, comprehensively and repeatedly lied to over the years.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4239717-next-stop-recession?ifp=0
==================================
Good Luck, WE are ALL going to NEED IT!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1624 - Feb 12th, 2019 at 1:02pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Feb 8th, 2019 at 1:07pm:
The Coming Global Financial Crisis: Debt Exhaustion


Summary
Just as generals fight the last war, central banks always fight the last financial crisis.

Debt in China has blasted from $7 trillion 2008 to $40 trillion in 2018.

The global economy is way past the point of maximum debt saturation, and so the next stop is debt exhaustion.

The global economy is way past the point of maximum debt saturation, and so the next stop is debt exhaustion: a sharp increase in defaults, a rapid decline in demand for more debt, a collapse in asset bubbles that depend on debt and a resulting drop in economic activity, a.k.a. a deep and profound recession that cannot be "fixed" by lowering interest rates or juicing the creation of more debt.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4238463-coming-global-financial-crisis-debt-exh...


That's insane!
That's Zimbabwean Hyper-inflation insane!

China is a Super-Nova of growth!
Nothing but a Dwarf Star economy deep down.
So the Global stimulus of Economy is based on a FALSE ECONOMY.
The world is Economically stuffed atm.
Pure and simple.
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1625 - Feb 13th, 2019 at 12:25pm
 
Debt Makes The World Go Round, For Now


Summary
AllianceBernstein: Long term global growth will be slower than in the past.

Cashflow Capitalist: Large wealth gaps, cultural threats, ineffective government, increasing populism and high and widespread debt are apt to hasten calls for a debt jubilee.

Thought For The Day: Making debt a way of life was an improvident if popular choice internationally.

Global Debt And Demographics
“When we look into the distant future - into 10, 15, 20 years - one of the consequences of the debt overhang is that we think growth globally will be slower in the next few decades than it has been in the past few decades…It isn't only the debt dynamics that point in that direction…In the developed world, the working-age population isn't gonna grow as fast as it has. And when you combine that with the debt dynamics, we're quite confident that growth will be slower going forward than it has been in the past.” (AlllianceBernstein)


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4239963-debt-makes-world-go-round-now?ifp=0
====================================
There are actually, a few major influencing factors, which are causing an alteration to the usual Growth/Debt situations -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
And, this NEW NORMAL, is set to continue TO INFLUENCE EVENTS, for quite some time!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1626 - Feb 13th, 2019 at 12:30pm
 
Recession Risk Rising In Europe


Summary
Europe is in the "plunge" phase.

Italy is in an official recession but other countries such as Germany and France are not far behind.

Global growth is falling apart and the outlook continues to be too optimistic in the US.


Recession Risk Rising In Europe
While many bullish (optimistic) investors were attempting to shrug off the European economic slowdown several months ago, including the ECB, claiming a rebound was just around the corner in 2019, the data is here to refute that claim.

The economic data across the Eurozone has deteriorated at an accelerated pace in 2019 as the probability that the entire Euro Area falls into a recession is rising. While Italy is the only country that is in an officially declared recession at this point, the data is suggestive that Germany, France, and the broader EU are not far behind.

The plunge phase, where Europe is most broadly (some countries ahead of others) is more or less self-explanatory, characterized by 2-4 months of "plunging" economic data across most areas of the economy.

Last week, we had data from Italy and out of the Netherlands that showed industrial production growth firmly in the plunge phase.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4240041-recession-risk-rising-europe?ifp=0
====================================
Good Luck, WE are ALL going to NEED IT!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1627 - Feb 13th, 2019 at 4:08pm
 
Its great to see all these internationally renowned economists turn up here to share their wealth of knowledge with us  , Namaste
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1628 - Feb 13th, 2019 at 9:41pm
 
BigP wrote on Feb 13th, 2019 at 4:08pm:
Its great to see all these internationally renowned economists turn up here to share their wealth of knowledge with us  , Namaste



Thankyou. Global Culture is my forte and even Economics is a part of the Global Culture.
You are forgiven little Hominid Hobbit if you only know the culture of your local one-pub main street rural town or inner-city ecstacy drug-dungeon. Namaste.
Now go. Be at peace.

Back to the subject...
House prices set to 'plunge' not 'fall' as what has happened a good number of times since 2005. This time - its a
PLUNGE
Shocked

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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1629 - Feb 15th, 2019 at 12:03pm
 
Housing Market Crisis 2.0: The Jury Is In For 2018-2019


Summary
Here is a play-by-play review of a housing crisis that began exploding one story at a time last summer.

What is different this time from last is that the 2007-2009 crisis started in the US and pretty much stayed in the US.

This one is developing all over the world simultaneously - in the US, Canada, Australia, the UK, etc.


As happened with the first housing market crash that began in 2007 but didn't become widely recognized until mid-2008, the present housing crisis began exploding one story at a time last summer, and this blog was perhaps the first to state that summer's change was the turning point from decades of ascent into a collapse in housing sales and prices.

The present housing market crash, like the last, was created by the Federal Reserve artificially pressing mortgage rates down, then down further, and then down as deep they dared push for years and years. Falling interest allowed people with flat incomes to keep purchasing increasingly expensive homes. Since people buy payments more than house prices, housing prices kept rising as payments were kept in line via these artificial interest reductions.

The Fed's ill-conceived plan, however, was never sustainable prior to the last housing market crash and is not now.

And now, here we are. US banks have not started to go down, but they are feeling serious pressure as this article will point out, while eight months of statistics now prove housing is relentlessly falling with NO hint of letting up.

The rest of the global economy is already down further than the US.

October 2018: New home sales were expected to start rising again in October but, instead, fell miserably (8.9% MoM). That marked the seventh month of missed expectations.

November 2018: By November, mortgage rates across the United States had hit their highest level since the Great Recession 8-1/2 years earlier. As a result, new mortgage applications across the US fell to their lowest level since December 2014.

December 2018: The median price of a home in Manhattan fell below the one-million-dollar market for the first time in four years, and it took 15% longer to sell even at those lower prices.

Business Insider summarized 2018 as the year that …

The US housing market took a dark turn … as homebuying fell off a cliff and mortgage lenders saw a steep decline in applications, originations, and profits.


The decline has been broad, affecting every region in the US.
...

Looking forward: Pending sales are a forward-looking indicator.
...

Pending sales strongly indicate that Housing Market Crash 2.0 is still fully on track for 2019.

On a longer-term perspective, consider the demographics: School-debt-ridden, under-employed millennials, who are more into buying experiences in life than things, are not inclined to buy homes that are in the housing-bubble price zone. Neither are baby-boomers looking to retire, which often involves downsizing.

Australia Housing Market Crash
Australia is faring even worse. Melbourne housing prices have plummeted at their fastest quarterly pace ever recorded! Less than two months ago, Australian housing regulators were warned to prepare "contingency plans for a severe collapse in the housing market" that could lead to a "crisis situation." The Australian market peaked back in October 2017. It's been downhill ever since with momentum now hitting break-neck speed. Sidney prices are down 12% from their peak.

One analyst has even tipped falls of up to 30 per cent, based on the revelation from the banking royal commission that almost all mortgages written between 2012 and 2016 … over-assess borrowing capacity.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4240221-housing-market-crisis-2_0-jury-2018minu...
====================================
The Housing Market is following the trend set by the Economy in general, which is largely being influenced by the following factors -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
And the above then influence Debt!

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1630 - Mar 1st, 2019 at 5:52pm
 
Preparing For An Aging World


Summary
Senior citizens will have growing influence over their country’s overall economic might, as they will be working later in life and represent an increasing share of consumer discretionary power.

Longevity will put new pressures on the economy, including rising costs of healthcare, insurance and a greater burden of age-related diseases.

But longevity will also spark new models of wealth management, life insurance, and consumer goods focused on the elderly.

Aging societies are a worldwide phenomenon driven by several long-term demographic and lifestyle trends. Breakthroughs in healthcare, sanitation and nutrition; mass urbanization; and the introduction of social security systems to supplement old-age income have all helped elongate the human lifespan.

Today, for instance, there are more centenarians, or people living above the age of 100, than at any point in history. In Japan alone, there are nearly 70,000, up from just 153 in 1963.2 And globally, average life expectancy is now 72, up from 67 in 2000.

In recent decades, China saw its life expectancy rise from 67 to 75 and its fertility rate drop from 2.8 to 1.7, now below replacement levels.

Health systems are already anticipating greater demand among aging populations for senior services including housing and care, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals for advanced age-related diseases.

While demographers and economists agree that societies are aging, the impact on the economy and prospects for growth is less understood. A common concern is that the old-dependency ratio (people aged 65+ divided by people aged 15-64) is rising in many countries, including Japan, China, the US and much of the European Union. If the ratio climbs too high, economists fear it could result in labor shortages, stagnation and a greater burden on government coffers.

Although life expectancy has grown worldwide, retirement age has rarely risen at the same pace. This trend has not only increased the length of retirement but also the amount of resources needed to support retirees in their last decades.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4244625-preparing-aging-world?ifp=0
====================================
There are actually 3 major influencing factors -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
And all of the above, then influence Debt & other related issues!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1631 - Mar 1st, 2019 at 6:57pm
 
There's gonna be WAR soon.
A real big war!
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1632 - Mar 9th, 2019 at 12:30pm
 
The Shifting Demographics Of Debt


Summary
Allianz Global Investors: Debt leverage stands at 298% of world GDP, which is close to the all-time high of 303% set in 2009.

Thought For The Day: High and increasing debt among the 50- to 80-year-old population inverts the natural order on which societal financial stability rests.

Global Debt: 2019 and 2009
“More than 10 years on from the financial crisis – which was, at its core, a debt crisis – there are signs that indebtedness is reaching worrisome levels. Our research shows that global leverage for all sectors stands at 298% of world GDP, which is close to the all-time high of 303% set in 2009. That’s significantly higher than the 279% level set in 2006, on the eve of the financial crisis.” (Allianz Global Investors)


Consumer Debt Record
“One possible trouble spot is that, by age group, older Americans are seeing their credit card debt transition into the delinquency category at an increasing pace. In particular, those in their 50s have seen the most rapid change and could be considered the most vulnerable should a change occur in their employment.”

Thought For The Day
The increasing indebtedness of older Americans has been well-documented. A recent working paper from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton Pension Research Council notes that “debt held by borrowers between the ages of 50 and 80 increased by roughly 60% percent from 2003 to 2015.”

The working paper’s concern is, as befits the Pension Research Council, retirement security. But my concern is more elemental, which is that high and increasing debt among the 50- to 80-year-old population inverts the natural order on which societal financial stability rests.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4246701-shifting-demographics-debt?ifp=0
=====================================
There are actually 3 major influencing factors -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
And all of the above, then influence Debt & other related issues!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1633 - Mar 13th, 2019 at 8:35pm
 
I think you need to know about this P_N
________________________________________
The World knows of the Freemasons in the North - those from Europe, North America and bits of the Middle-East and Asia.

But in the South of the Hemisphere... lets take the Region of Sahul and its continent - Azlaroc (Australia).

There the Freemasons are 'styled' differently to those of the North. They are known for their 'Plumb' of 'Crystals' and precious 'Stones', which dangle from their leather cords and platinum to titanium chains.
In their homes you will find more of such, but as different ornamentations and displays. Signifying much in the way of communication to other Freemasons. Here the Freemasons are so 'covert' that they have turned it into part of the Azlaroc culture that attracts Tourists from around the world to even visit such 'Boutique' Freemasonry... towns.
It is the 'Art' movement of this part of the World. A movement that gains momentum as a big money earner
- so much so, that they are rivaling, if not overtaking, the Government earnings for this country.
Difference is that they make their money via the Black Market, to which they say is far 'superior' to the current so-called 'Global' Market. The Global market is what those in the Black Market call as the 'Red' Market. In that the Red Market still practices in 'Imperial', rather than the Black's 'Metric' system... which just happens to be used by 90% of the nations of the world.

Soon, the Freemasons will take over this Country via their 'Art' (StoneMasons, Stone-workers, those of the Chisel and the Hammer as well) and 'sculpt' a new GOLDEN AGE for the world. Those who dwell in thought of far off distant North American 'Political' shores, will carry on in the little things that they possess.
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1634 - Mar 20th, 2019 at 10:48am
 
A Debt-Riddled System That Is Hitting The Wall


Summary
Fed officials always understate risks embedded in the system.

Just like the stock market, fixed income prices rallied sharply after the Fed and the Trump Government acted to arrest the sell-off in the stock market in late December.

The average household is getting squeezed from higher interest payments on the record amount of household debt that has accumulated over the last 10 years.

An elevated level of corporate debt, along with the high level of U.S. government debt, is likely to mean that the U.S. economy is much more interest rate sensitive than it has been historically. - Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed

Fed officials always understate risks embedded in the system. Translated, the statement above implies the Fed is worried about the amount of debt accumulated in the U.S. economic system over the last 8 years. Kaplan specifically referenced the $6.2 trillion in corporate debt outstanding as a reason for the Fed to stop raising the Fed funds rate. Non-financial corporate debt as a percentage of GDP is now at a record high:
...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4249200-debt-riddled-system-hitting-wall?ifp=0
=====================================
The US FED always understate risks & guess what, SO TO DOES THE RBA & ALL OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES!
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