The overall LFPR peaked in early 2000 at 67.3% and gradually began falling. The rate leveled out from 2004 to 2007, but in 2008, with the onset of the Great Recession, the rate began to accelerate. The latest rate is 62.8%, off its interim low of 62.4%. The demography of our aging workforce has been a major contributor to this trend.

The Growing Ratios Of Older Workers
The pattern is clear: The older the cohort, the greater the growth.


Another Way To Envision The Data


There is no question that the pace of Boomer retirement will accelerate in the years ahead. Just add about 65 years to the red dots in the chart below and you'll get some idea of the epic retirement wave that is just beginning (and note that the birth statistics below don't include immigration).


The Gender Difference
The comparative growth in the 50+ cohorts by gender is rather amazing. The LFPR for Women Age 75 and Over has risen about 85% since the turn of the century. The rate for Men Age 75 and Over is up less than half the Women's rate around 45%.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4171629-demographic-trends-50-older-work-force?...
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Aging Baby Boomers: Implications For Munis

By 2035, the elderly will outnumber young people for the first time in American history.

State Pension Budget Pinch
It is simple math: with a shrinking proportion of working-age adults-to-retirees, there may simply not be enough revenue to support the generous pensions that many states' defined benefit plans have promised, the unfunded liabilities of which already stood at some $574 billion as of 2011.
This will probably necessitate a reduction in services, an increase in taxes, pension reforms, or some combination of the three.
As state governments grapple with unfunded pension liabilities, local governments may need to raise property taxes to generate additional revenue as they are forced to shoulder an increasingly high share of the cost of delivering essential services to residents.

Looming Healthcare Gaps
Much has been made of the looming funding gaps facing Social Security and Medicare, and rightfully so, as demographic trends point to an eye-popping $100 trillion shortfall in funding for these federal programs over the coming decades.

Education Squeeze
What happens to education funding when state budgets are squeezed by ballooning Medicaid costs and unfunded pension obligations on a historic scale?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4171634-aging-baby-boomers-implications-munis?i...
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Millennials And The Labor Force: A Look At The Trends

Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

Here is a comparison of the five cohorts since the turn of the century.










https://seekingalpha.com/article/4172131-millennials-labor-force-look-trends?ifp...
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As discussed previously, THE 3 PRIMARY ECONOMIC DRIVERS -
1) Population - Slowing Global Growth & Aging.
2) Energy - Global Supply & Pricing.
3) Global Climate Change - Likely to further Adversely affect our capacity, for an increasing Population.

AND Yes, "this time is Different", in Cause, Effect & Duration!

Jasin wrote on May 16^th, 2018 at 10:35am:


Sorry for the delay in replying, despite Retirement, things have been "Hectic", for a few reasons!

That said, in terms of "wealth being gained", that is generally not the case, as GDP/Growth in general has temporarily increased and that is mainly due to increasing Debt & other Temporary "fixes", which will not/can not continue in the longer term!
There are some "Female" influencing factors, but these are also Temporary.

The USA is pretty much similar to the OZ situation & I expect both OZ, the USA & the Global situation to shortly come back to REALITY, which means that despite what all the Politicians (ALP/NLP etc) may say, our Real Economic Growth is STOPPING!

And the main reasons, why Economic Growth is Slowing/Stopping include the following THE 3 PRIMARY ECONOMIC DRIVERS -
1) Population - Slowing Global Growth & Aging.
2) Energy - Global Supply & Pricing.
3) Global Climate Change - Likely to further Adversely affect our capacity, for an increasing Population.

AND Yes, "this time is Different", in Cause, Effect & Duration!

What, Who, Why, Where & How?

Demographic Trends For The 50-And-Older Work Force

Our earlier update on demographic trends in employment included a chart illustrating the growth (or shrinkage) in six age cohorts since the turn of the century. In this commentary, we'll zoom in on the age 50 and older Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR).

But first, let's review the big picture. The overall LFPR is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.

For the larger context, here is a snapshot of the monthly LFPR for age 16 and over, stretching back to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' starting point in 1948 (the blue line in the chart below) along with the unemployment rate.


The overall LFPR peaked in early 2000 at 67.3% and gradually began falling. The rate leveled out from 2004 to 2007, but in 2008, with the onset of the Great Recession, the rate began to accelerate. The latest rate is 62.7%, off its interim low of 62.4%. The demography of our aging workforce has been a major contributor to this trend. The oldest Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, began becoming eligible for reduced Social Security benefits in 2008 and full benefits in 2012. Job cuts during the Great Recession certainly strengthened the trend.

Another Way To Envision The Data

There is no question that the pace of Boomer retirement will accelerate in the years ahead.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4179959-demographic-trends-50-older-work-force?...
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As previously stated, Population issues are 1 influencing factor, But Energy & Climate Change are 2 more Major influencing factors!

4 Horsemen Of The Recession And Stock Market Apocalypse

Summary
Four key factors are coming together to form the next recession and stock market panic.

Oil prices are moving higher, Fed interest rates are moving higher, Federal spending cutbacks are coming, and forward earnings are showing the coming weakness.

Be prepared for the last bull run and bust for this cycle.

Recession Looms
Recessions are heralded by four horsemen of the stock market apocalypse.
1. Oil price spike.
2. Fed interest rate spike and yield curve inversion.
3. Fiscal spending cutbacks by the national government.
4. Forward earnings dropping.

A big move down in GDP is enough of an income shock to business that a recession could well be triggered going into 2019.

Summary, Conclusion, and Recommendation
Were it not for all these factors not coming together at the same time, a recession could well be avoided. The fact is though that we have a combination of higher interest rates, oil prices, and lower Federal spending.

The higher Fed rates and oil prices are intersectoral fiscal flows in that money moves from one part of the private sector to the finance and oil sectors, the net money supply remains the same. The consumer though has lower purchasing power for other goods and services. Some money will leave the system in the form of income to foreign oil suppliers and be reflected in a worsening of the current account position.

The Federal tax exemption expiry is the more serious of the three factors. This is because this factor removes money from the net money supply. GDP = GDI and when income falls due to higher taxes, GDP must fall too.

Add all three factors together, and one has the ingredients for a recession.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180492-4-horsemen-recession-stock-market-apoca...
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Well, "this time Really is Different", in Cause, Effect & Duration!
The Major issues are -
1) Population - Slowing Global Growth & Aging.
2) Energy - Global Supply & Pricing.
3) Global Climate Change - Likely to further Adversely affect our capacity, for an increasing Population.
4) Those in certain "Positions" (Politicians, Big Business, Unions, the Media & a few more), in the Local, National & Global arena are pushing "What they perceive" as their own Short term gains, WHILST THE LONG TERM BEST INTERESTS OF ALL ARE IN FACT ON THE SLIDE & have been for some time!
We are now facing "increasing Debt" AND AT SOME POINT THE PROVERBIAL WILL HIT THE FAN!
Finally, I suspect we are now, fast approaching that period, where the Proverbial & the Fan will shortly meet!

The United States Is Even More Broke Than We Think

Summary
The 2018 "official" U.S. debt figure of $34 trillion is 120% of GDP and projected to double as a percent of GDP within the next 20 years. It's big.

If we add "off-the-books" net obligations like Social Security and Medicare, our all-in debt, or so-called "fiscal gap", rises to $110 trillion, or 390% of GDP. It's scary.

Raising taxes and reducing benefits won't restore solvency. Something is going to break, and it won't be pretty.

We're broke and no one seems to care.

We have yet to feel the consequences of being broke, but that won't last long. Some things are already breaking, and an ultimate breakdown is on the way. 2018 is the first year when tax receipts won't pay for Social Security and Medicare benefits.

It's full speed ahead into the reckoning. In the following, we share some details on this bankruptcy, and offer some actions that might help, although they are unlikely.

The National Debt

As shown in the following graph, the reported national debt of $34 trillion is currently 120% of GDP, a level only seen before in the wake of World War II. But unlike the last time, there are no signs that debt has peaked.


But that's not the whole story. We've made promises to older people that simply can't be kept unless the promises are changed (broken) and we burden today's young people with much higher taxes; the fixes are not pretty.

As shown in the last row of the following table, the present value of the promise to pay Social Security benefits is $29 trillion more than projected receipts, and adding Medicare's $47 trillion promise brings our off-the-books liability to $76 trillion, more than twice the published liability. Our all-in national debt is an astronomical 390% of GDP.

What Can Congress Do?

Congress can address these problems by reducing spending or increasing taxes, or a combination of both, but the required magnitude is out of the question according to Professor Laurence Kotlikoff in his The US is dead broke

and the tax bill does nothing to help matters, where he states:
Yes, Uncle Sam can avoid permanently raising all federal taxes by almost 60 percent. But this means reneging on his spending promises. But even if he cuts all forms of spending (defense spending, entitlement spending, infrastructure spending, gassing up Air Force One, you name it), the needed permanent percentage cut is 47 percent!

A 60-percent permanent tax hike or a 47-percent permanent spending cut? These are our options the day after the ("magnificent" to some) tax bill was passed? How can things possibly be this bad?

Here's how: Successive Congresses and administrations have been systematically lying about our fiscal condition. They spent the past six decades accumulating massive liabilities that they kept off the books via clever use of language.

Congress has another choice that is equally ugly. It can print money, i.e. debase the currency. This possibility has been the driving force behind the evolution of cryptocurrencies and other ways to replace the U.S. dollar standard. In other words, this country can renege on its promises at the expense of all savers holding dollars and dollar promises.

Time will tell what Congress decides, but in the meantime, we can prepare for what is likely to be very tough times.

What Can We Do?

Our best response is to not rely on Social Security and Medicare, and if we think debasing is a possibility, we should save in a "currency" other than the U.S. dollar.

Those with defined benefit pension plans are more fortunate than those without because they have a presumed annual benefit from a viable company or union rather than the government.

It would appear that the day of collapse is at hand. As it stands now, healthy plans are paying most of the premiums and have to be thinking about terminating their plans because the premiums are not fair. The PBGC is going to break unless taxpayers pick up the slack, which is totally unfair.

Conclusion

We are broke and have decided to ignore it. The implied hope is that the repercussions will be in someone else's lifetime and that they won't be too painful. This is simply wishful thinking.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183557-united-states-even-broke-think?ifp=0
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As previously stated, there are a few Major Influencing factors at play -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
4) Debt

These have in fact been "in play" for quite some time,
BUT WE ARE NOW QUICKLY APPROACHING A CRUNCH PERIOD!

The_Barnacle wrote on Jun 26^th, 2018 at 10:32pm:


Well, "THERE IS HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS DRIVING EVENTS", then there is the issue of timing, which is being influenced by a lot at the top!?

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Interesting, OZ doesn't appear.