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For the Record (Read 173297 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1515 - Aug 30th, 2017 at 12:33pm
 
Mexico's Declining Oil Production


Summary
The primary difference between the oil bull and bear camps is in the third bucket: the ex-US non-OPEC production.

Historical Trend
The following graph illustrates the long-term trend in Mexico's oil production:
...

Readers should note that Mexico's oil production peaked at 3.5 mbd in December 2003, declined by 20% to ~2.8 mbd by mid-2008 (during which period oil prices quadrupled), and remained stable just above ~2.6 mbd from mid-2009 through 2013, before continuing its downward trend to 2.0 mbd more recently.


Reserves
Because Mexico currently supplies more than 2.3% of the global oil supply, the precipitous decline in its production rate is worrisome, and its reserves are important.

According to a March 2017 Bloomberg article, Mexico's oil reserves declined to 9.16 billion barrels in 2016, from 10.24 billion barrels a year earlier. Once the world’s third largest crude producer, Mexico’s proven reserves have declined 34 percent since 2013.


Bottom Line
Mexico's oil production has declined since its peak in 2003, and even high oil prices from 2010 through mid-2014 was not enough for a recovery. More recently, Mexico's oil production has declined precipitously, and the government's 2017 spending cuts combined with the depressed rig count level point to further declines,
as both IEA and OPEC agree, with the latter's more conservative take.

I expect the continued decline in Mexico's oil production to be a leading component of downward revisions to IEA's global supply projection into 2018. Significantly higher oil prices will be needed for Mexico's offshore oil production to stabilize.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4102171-mexicos-declining-oil-production?ifp=0
==================================
Other Countries, including Australia, have also Peaked in Oil Production/Reserves, BUT OIL PRICES HAVE DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY, FROM 2014 TO NOW, DESPITE A LOWER PRODUCTION LEVEL.
This would normally result in an increase in Price, IF DEMAND WAS INCREASING, from a supposedly recovering Economy, as is suggested Locally & Globally???
But, THE ECONOMY IS NOT RECOVERING (as suggested), "IT IS SIMPLY MORE FAKE NEWS"!!!

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Jasin
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1516 - Sep 2nd, 2017 at 7:07pm
 
Mexico can't do anything except pump out more babies than they can afford to feed.
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1517 - Dec 8th, 2017 at 1:11am
 
For the record, Percy has been a doomsayer for a very long time now, where much money would have been made by not listening to him.

Of course there will be busts, then the doomsayers will be spouting "Told ya so" at the top of their lungs
without 2 five cent coins to rub together if they'd taken their own advice.

For the record, when consumer confidence is at it's highest (wherever that may be) it's time to think about exit plans.

Where is the highest point of consumer confidence?
Considering low interest rates and unsustainable economic growth being at odds, I would expect it to be somewhere around the same cycle. But there is still room for global economic growth if the powers that be allow it.




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Re: For the Record
Reply #1518 - Dec 9th, 2017 at 12:02pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on May 31st, 2016 at 9:31pm:
perceptions_now wrote on May 15th, 2016 at 3:06pm:
I expect 2016 & 2017 to be crunch years!



I will now make a prediction of my own. on the 1/1/2018 when I remind you that your prediction was wrong, you will explain that events have delayed the collapse and you now confidently predict it will happen in 2018 & 2019.

Lets see if my prediction comes true........


Where is perceptions now?
I'm only 3 weeks away from telling him I told you so
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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1519 - Dec 9th, 2017 at 5:36pm
 
It is apparent that "some" do not understand, we are already up to our eyeballs in it!

The System,is either "Fair & Balanced for ALL" OR it Fails!

At the moment & actually for "some time now", the System (including Political, Economic, Business, Unions & Others) "has been neither Fair nor Balanced"!

And Consequently, WE are heading for "the Consequences of a Failing System"!
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The_Barnacle
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1520 - Jan 1st, 2018 at 9:55am
 
The_Barnacle wrote on May 31st, 2016 at 9:31pm:
perceptions_now wrote on May 15th, 2016 at 3:06pm:
I expect 2016 & 2017 to be crunch years!



I will now make a prediction of my own. on the 1/1/2018 when I remind you that your prediction was wrong, you will explain that events have delayed the collapse and you now confidently predict it will happen in 2018 & 2019.

Lets see if my prediction comes true........


Well it looks like we escaped economic Armageddon for another year, in fact the world economy is looking healthier now than it did when I made my prediction 18 months ago. 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1521 - Jan 17th, 2018 at 12:56pm
 
Another 'First' For America, Core Population Declining


As of the third quarter update available on the St. Louis FRED, the 15-64 year old US working age population declined by <230,000> from the same quarter a year ago.

While native population growth has been consistently decelerating, the 2008 waterfall in core growth was tied to the collapse of the housing bubble and unavailability of low skill, low education employment for immigrants in the US. It appears the 2017 waterfall is tied to the Trump presidency and his jawboning alongside stronger implementation of border controls. Not only are illegals not coming (on a net basis), but a net outflow among the 12 million illegals already in America appears to be underway.

The decline in core population growth has two causes, four plus decades of negative birth rates coupled with decelerating immigration.

With the minimal natural population growth coupled with decelerating immigration, the core population is in decline. A nation with massive trade deficits and an economy reliant on ever greater debt-fueled consumption will truly be up against the wall to conjure "growth" against a declining consumer base.

Crucially, the decrease in estimated growth among the childbearing population was a massive <53%>. Due to continuing record low birth rates and slowing immigration (particularly of the illegal variety), significantly larger population downgrades of the child-bearing population and number of children they produce are inevitable.

If current trends hold, the reality is that even the low variant is likely too "optimistic." National depopulation of the under 45 year old population vs. surging 45+year olds... this is not a good economic combination.

This situation, as the federal government and Federal Reserve know well, is unlike anything the US has ever seen.

Absent some unexpected intervention, rising inequality, social discord, and global anger toward these policies are likely to accelerate political and military conflict unlike the world has seen for a generation.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137496-another-first-america-core-population-d...
===================================
DEMOGRAPHICS HAS BEEN & IS, ONE OF THE MAJOR LOCAL/GLOBAL ECONOMIC DRIVERS, for quite some time & certainly has been for much of the Modern Economic Era!
But, with THE TOTAL POPULATION LEVELS ALREADY SLOWING IN MANY COUNTRIES, DEMOGRAPHICS IS NOW A LEADING FACTOR IN OUR RECENT ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN!
In fact, THE GLOBAL POPULATION MAY WELL GET TO 8 BILLION, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY TO THEN STRUGGLE BEYOND THAT & A GLOBAL DECLINE MAY WELL THEN BE LIKELY TO START, WHICH WILL FURTHER DRIVE OUR ECONOMIC STRUGGLES DOWNWARD!.
IN ADDITION, THERE ARE A FEW OTHER MAJOR ECONOMIC DRIVERS, which must come into the picture –
1) ENERGY – Supply & Pricing.
2) CLIMATE CHANGE – Likely to further Adversely affect our capacity for an increasing Population.
3) DEBT – Already TOO HIGH & BEING DRIVEN HIGHER.
In short, UNLIKE WHAT POLITICIANS & OTHERS MAY SAY, EVERYTHING HAS LIMITS & WE ARE NOW BEARING DOWN ON SOME OF THOSE LIMITS!

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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1522 - Feb 6th, 2018 at 3:58pm
 
About now, I should say, " AND NOW IT BEGINS"!

But, having been without a Landline for about 2 weeks & without the internet for about 1 week, ALL DUE TO OUR SUBURB HAVING TO GO ONTO THE NBN, I must say -
IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN & APPARENT IT MAY CONTINUE,
for some time!

BTW, I am now back online, thanks to a "Dongle"!?
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1523 - Feb 6th, 2018 at 9:17pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 3:58pm:
About now, I should say, " AND NOW IT BEGINS"!

But, having been without a Landline for about 2 weeks & without the internet for about 1 week, ALL DUE TO OUR SUBURB HAVING TO GO ONTO THE NBN, I must say -
IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN & APPARENT IT MAY CONTINUE,
for some time!

BTW, I am now back online, thanks to a "Dongle"!?


I knew you would be back today.
has it begun? or is it just a correction?
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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1524 - Feb 9th, 2018 at 7:50pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 9:17pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 3:58pm:
About now, I should say, " AND NOW IT BEGINS"!

But, having been without a Landline for about 2 weeks & without the internet for about 1 week, ALL DUE TO OUR SUBURB HAVING TO GO ONTO THE NBN, I must say -
IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN & APPARENT IT MAY CONTINUE,
for some time!

BTW, I am now back online, thanks to a "Dongle"!?


I knew you would be back today.
has it begun? or is it just a correction?


Well, it is probably more correct to say, this was actually all put into play quit some time ago, But the outcomes are now becoming reality!

AND, regrettably, this is NO SHORT TERM CORRECTION, IT WILL BE WITH US FOR QUITE SOME TIME!

Oh & HOPEFULLY, our internet & Landline issues, MAY finally be resolved, as of this morning!?

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Bias_2012
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1525 - Feb 9th, 2018 at 9:25pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Feb 9th, 2018 at 7:50pm:
The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 9:17pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 3:58pm:
About now, I should say, " AND NOW IT BEGINS"!

But, having been without a Landline for about 2 weeks & without the internet for about 1 week, ALL DUE TO OUR SUBURB HAVING TO GO ONTO THE NBN, I must say -
IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN & APPARENT IT MAY CONTINUE,
for some time!

BTW, I am now back online, thanks to a "Dongle"!?


I knew you would be back today.
has it begun? or is it just a correction?


Well, it is probably more correct to say, this was actually all put into play quit some time ago, But the outcomes are now becoming reality!

AND, regrettably, this is NO SHORT TERM CORRECTION, IT WILL BE WITH US FOR QUITE SOME TIME!

Oh & HOPEFULLY, our internet & Landline issues, MAY finally be resolved, as of this morning!?




There is some doubt Jerome Powell will stay on the low interest rate path of Janet Yellen. Powell is an unknown the markets are reacting to. Investors would be in a "wait and see" mode


I don't believe the GFC is finished yet, there'd be lingering affects, and many investors may not be considering that anomaly. The market I'm sure, is still distorted, and not a real reflection of the true market position

Get your head around the Fed Reserve's total bailout figure after the GFC ...

Bailout Total: $29.616 Trillion Dollars

December 9, 2011 6:20am by Barry Ritholtz

http://ritholtz.com/2011/12/bailout-total-29-616-trillion-dollars/


I wasn't surprised at the current correction. I've been expecting it for months, it finally came and the Dow dropped commensurate to the expectations of informed market watchers

The Dow will probably stabilize where it is at 23,800 or rise a bit to 24,000. It's not likely to go higher than that in the months ahead, simply because a correction is a correction. It's been brought back to reality

We shouldn't forget though that Trump has enemies everywhere and if an elite investor with money to burn starts selling to spite Trump, smaller investors will follow the lead - it's a possibility not to be ignored.

     

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« Last Edit: Feb 9th, 2018 at 10:29pm by Bias_2012 »  

Our Lives Are Governed By The Feast & Famine Variable
 
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perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1526 - Feb 22nd, 2018 at 5:46pm
 
America's Impending Debt Crisis: This Won't End Well For Stocks


The Origins of The Upcoming Crisis
Let’s face it, the U.S. has an enormous spending problem. Overspending and living beyond normal means, coupled with Wall Street’s insatiable appetite to make money, played an instrumental role in leading the economy and the stock market off a cliff in 2008’s economic debacle.

Government/National Debt
But if you think this is merely a consumer-led issue, it's not - the government is the same way, perhaps worse even. Politicians promise a lot when they are being elected, and they are expected to deliver once placed in office. However, the government doesn’t make nearly as much in tax revenues as it spends each year. For instance, U.S. Federal revenue is up by 82% since 2000, but Federal spending is up by a whopping 138%.
Debt, consumer and government, has climbed to absurd levels. The national debt is higher than 105% of GDP, and is only projected to soar higher from here.
...

The Problem With the National Debt
The main issue with the national debt is that it must be serviced continuously. And as it grows to obscene levels, it becomes incredibly expensive to service, especially in a rising rate environment, such as we are in now. In the end, the dynamic resembles a snowball effect, where the debt continues to get bigger, interest payment continuously increase, and then splat... the snowball hits a wall and it’s the end. The end may be a lot closer than many market participants perceive.

What to Expect Going Forward
In the underlying macroeconomic environment, inflation is likely to continue to rise because an ever-increasing amount of dollars and debt is being implemented to fund the current economic expansion. Yes, the economy is growing, but at what cost? This is not a typical expansionary cycle that is primarily supported by organic growth, increased productivity, innovation, etc. Sure, these elements are present to an extent, but the predominant forces behind the current expansion have been artificially low interest rates, excess liquidity and cheap credit.

However, when the recession does finally arrive, it is likely to cut stocks in half, similar to what happened during the last recession of 2008.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4148193-americas-impending-debt-crisis-end-well...
===================================
The thing is that those "things" that have basically MADE GROWTH AUTOMATIC, for much of the last 200 years, HAS BEEN SLOWING FOR SOME TIME & THE OLD "NORMAL/NATURAL GROWTH IS NOW STOPPING"!!!

1) Population Growth is Slowing, prior to going into Reverse!
2) Energy Supply & Pricing, are reflecting issues inherent to the Energy industry!
3) The Global Climate is becoming MORE ERRATIC & that will be reflected in problems for Population Growth!

Oh & "when the proverbial, does finally hit the Fan", my thoughts are the Share Decline will be greater than 50%.
It will more likely range between 50%-75%!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1527 - Feb 23rd, 2018 at 12:31pm
 
Australia population to boom over next 30 years by 11.8 million with Sydney and Melbourne set to transform into global cities


Over the next 30 years Australia’s population is to grow by 11.8 million people leading to a warning from the federal government’s peak infrastructure agency that major capital cities will decline in quality of life and economic productivity if governments fail to plan for the boom in population.

In the next 30 years, Sydney is projected to grow by 2.6 million people, Melbourne by 2.7 million while Brisbane will grow by 1.6 million people and Perth by 2.2 million.

https://finance.nine.com.au/2018/02/23/10/16/australia-population-boom-infrastra...
====================================
There has been quite a bit of "Media coverage" on this story!

That said, the facts are;
Global Population Growth has resulted in the following Annual Compound Growth Rates -
1800AD-1900AD - 0.45%
1900AD-2000AD - 1.25%
1800AD-2000AD - 0.85%

IF Australian Population went from 25 Million, to 37 Million, over the next 30 years, THEN THE ANNUAL COMPOUND GROWTH WOULD BE 1.32%???

Given Population trends, over the last 50-70 years, plus Related Global Energy & Climate issues, I CAN SAY THAT WITHOUT DOUBT THERE IS NO WAY, THE AUSTRALIAN POPULATION GROWTH RATE WILL BE ANYTHING LIKE THAT CURRENTLY BEING SUGGESTED!
IN FACT, IN 30 YEARS TIME, BOTH THE AUSTRALIAN & GLOBAL POPULATION WILL STRUGGLE TO RETAIN CURRENT LEVELS, LET ALONE SHOW ANY GROWTH AT ALL!!

AND, THESE FACTS, WILL HAVE VERY DAMATIC FFECTS ON THE GLOBAL & AUSTRALIANS ECONOMY!!!



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Re: For the Record
Reply #1528 - Feb 27th, 2018 at 9:08pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 3:58pm:
About now, I should say, " AND NOW IT BEGINS"!

IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN & APPARENT IT MAY CONTINUE,
for some time!



perceptions_now wrote on Feb 9th, 2018 at 7:50pm:
Well, it is probably more correct to say, this was actually all put into play quit some time ago, But the outcomes are now becoming reality!

AND, regrettably, this is NO SHORT TERM CORRECTION, IT WILL BE WITH US FOR QUITE SOME TIME!



Well the markets have recovered their losses from earlier in the month so I guess you were wrong again
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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1529 - Apr 14th, 2018 at 11:29am
 
Demographic Trends For The 50-And-Older Work Force


...
The overall LFPR peaked in early 2000 at 67.3% and gradually began falling. The rate leveled out from 2004 to 2007, but in 2008, with the onset of the Great Recession, the rate began to accelerate. The latest rate is 62.9%, off its interim low of 62.4%. The demography of our aging workforce has been a major contributor to this trend. The oldest Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, began becoming eligible for reduced Social Security benefits in 2008 and full benefits in 2012.

The Growing Ratios of Older Workers
...

Another Way to Envision the Data
...

Today, nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

There is no question that the pace of Boomer retirement will accelerate in the years ahead. Just add about 65 years to the red dots in the chart below and you'll get some idea of the epic retirement wave that is just beginning (and note that the birth statistics below don't include immigration).
...

The Gender Difference
...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4162194-demographic-trends-50-older-work-force?...
====================================
Population is one of the 3 major influences, on what is happening!
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