Another 'First' For America, Core Population Declining
As of the third quarter update available on the St. Louis FRED, the 15-64 year old US working age population declined by <230,000> from the same quarter a year ago.
While native population growth has been consistently decelerating, the 2008 waterfall in core growth was tied to the collapse of the housing bubble and unavailability of low skill, low education employment for immigrants in the US. It appears the 2017 waterfall is tied to the Trump presidency and his jawboning alongside stronger implementation of border controls. Not only are illegals not coming (on a net basis), but a net outflow among the 12 million illegals already in America appears to be underway.
The decline in core population growth has two causes, four plus decades of negative birth rates coupled with decelerating immigration.
With the minimal natural population growth coupled with decelerating immigration, the core population is in decline. A nation with massive trade deficits and an economy reliant on ever greater debt-fueled consumption will truly be up against the wall to conjure "growth" against a declining consumer base.
Crucially, the decrease in estimated growth among the childbearing population was a massive <53%>. Due to continuing record low birth rates and slowing immigration (particularly of the illegal variety), significantly larger population downgrades of the child-bearing population and number of children they produce are inevitable.
If current trends hold, the reality is that even the low variant is likely too "optimistic." National depopulation of the under 45 year old population vs. surging 45+year olds... this is not a good economic combination.
This situation, as the federal government and Federal Reserve know well, is unlike anything the US has ever seen.
Absent some unexpected intervention, rising inequality, social discord, and global anger toward these policies are likely to accelerate political and military conflict unlike the world has seen for a generation.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137496-another-first-america-core-population-d...===================================
DEMOGRAPHICS HAS BEEN & IS, ONE OF THE MAJOR LOCAL/GLOBAL ECONOMIC DRIVERS, for quite some time & certainly has been for much of the Modern Economic Era!
But, with THE TOTAL POPULATION LEVELS ALREADY SLOWING IN MANY COUNTRIES, DEMOGRAPHICS IS NOW A LEADING FACTOR IN OUR RECENT ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN!
In fact, THE GLOBAL POPULATION MAY WELL GET TO 8 BILLION, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY TO THEN STRUGGLE BEYOND THAT & A GLOBAL DECLINE MAY WELL THEN BE LIKELY TO START, WHICH WILL FURTHER DRIVE OUR ECONOMIC STRUGGLES DOWNWARD!.
IN ADDITION, THERE ARE A FEW OTHER MAJOR ECONOMIC DRIVERS, which must come into the picture –
1) ENERGY – Supply & Pricing.
2) CLIMATE CHANGE – Likely to further Adversely affect our capacity for an increasing Population.
3) DEBT – Already TOO HIGH & BEING DRIVEN HIGHER.
In short, UNLIKE WHAT POLITICIANS & OTHERS MAY SAY, EVERYTHING HAS LIMITS & WE ARE NOW BEARING DOWN ON SOME OF THOSE LIMITS!